US GDP Predict
Last 10 years of US Gross Domestic Product (current US$) from the World Bank, then the next 10 years compounded from Kalshi KXGDPYEAR expected growth rates.
Forecast path: GDPt = GDPt−1 × (1 + gt/100), starting from the latest World Bank GDP. gt is Kalshi expected real GDP growth for that year (or the nearest available rate if a year has no contract). Kalshi expected = Σ (prob × midpoint); midpoint = (floor+cap)/2, or cap-only / floor-only for open tails; prob = (yes_bid + yes_ask) / 2, else last_price. Probabilities are not renormalized.
US GDP: World Bank actual + Kalshi compounded forecast
GDP path
| Year | GDP (current US$) | Growth applied | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $18.80T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2017 | $19.61T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2018 | $20.66T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2019 | $21.54T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2020 | $21.38T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2021 | $23.73T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2022 | $26.05T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2023 | $27.81T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2024 | $29.30T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2025 | $30.77T | — | World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| 2026 | $31.36T | 1.933% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2027 | $32.03T | 2.107% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2028 | $32.77T | 2.325% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2029 | $33.46T | 2.094% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2030 | $35.36T | 5.686% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2031 | $36.25T | 2.524% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2032 | $37.05T | 2.216% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2033 | $37.84T | 2.121% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2034 | $38.43T | 1.561% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
| 2035 | $39.37T | 2.435% | Kalshi expected growth, compounded |
Expected growth by year
Summary
| Year | Expected growth % | Σ prob | # buckets | Event ticker | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.933 | 0.951 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-26 | US real GDP growth in 2026? |
| 2027 | 2.107 | 0.935 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-27 | US real GDP growth in 2027? |
| 2028 | 2.325 | 0.960 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-28 | US real GDP growth in 2028? |
| 2029 | 2.094 | 0.880 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-29 | US real GDP growth in 2029? |
| 2030 | 5.686 | 1.745 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-30 | US real GDP growth in 2030? |
| 2031 | 2.524 | 1.010 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-31 | US real GDP growth in 2031? |
| 2032 | 2.216 | 0.800 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-32 | US real GDP growth in 2032? |
| 2033 | 2.121 | 0.900 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-33 | US real GDP growth in 2033? |
| 2034 | 1.561 | 0.730 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-34 | US real GDP growth in 2034? |
| 2035 | 2.435 | 1.070 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-35 | US real GDP growth in 2035? |
| 2036 | 1.775 | 0.845 | 14 | KXGDPYEAR-36 | US real GDP growth in 2036? |
Bucket detail (debug)
Every market for each year: strikes, computed midpoint, prices, chosen probability, and contribution. Expand a year to inspect the full math.
2026 — E[g] = 1.933% · Σ prob = 0.951 · KXGDPYEAR-26
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-26-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0000 | 0.0090 | 0.0100 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0005 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0110 | 0.0120 | 0.0100 | 1.2% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0035 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0190 | 0.0100 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0116 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1250 | 0.1740 | 0.1700 | 15.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1944 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.2850 | 0.3540 | 0.3540 | 32.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.5751 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.2620 | 0.3000 | 0.3100 | 28.1% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.6463 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1300 | 0.1380 | 0.1380 | 13.4% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3752 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0400 | 0.0200 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0990 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0040 | 0.0040 | 0.2% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0076 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0010 | 0.1% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0022 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0040 | 0.0040 | 0.2% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0096 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0010 | 0.1% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0027 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0010 | 0.1% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0029 |
| KXGDPYEAR-26-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0010 | 0.1% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0030 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.951 | 1.9334 | |||||||||
2027 — E[g] = 2.107% · Σ prob = 0.935 · KXGDPYEAR-27
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-27-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.1100 | 0.1600 | 0.0600 | 13.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0135 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0600 | 0.0400 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0165 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0600 | 0.0300 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0360 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0700 | 0.0800 | 0.0700 | 7.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0975 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0900 | 0.1400 | 0.1400 | 11.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2070 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1400 | 0.1700 | 0.1500 | 15.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3565 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1200 | 0.1500 | 0.1300 | 13.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3780 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0800 | 0.0100 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1980 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0300 | 0.0100 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0950 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0300 | 0.0200 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1075 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0600 | 0.0100 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1440 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0200 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1325 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0300 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1450 |
| KXGDPYEAR-27-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0200 | 0.0400 | 0.0100 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1800 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.935 | 2.1070 | |||||||||
2028 — E[g] = 2.325% · Σ prob = 0.960 · KXGDPYEAR-28
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-28-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0800 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 8.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0085 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0800 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 8.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0255 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0800 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 8.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0680 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0910 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0900 | 0.1200 | 0.1100 | 10.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1890 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1300 | 0.1300 | 9.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2185 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1100 | 0.1200 | 0.1200 | 11.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3220 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1300 | 0.0900 | 9.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3135 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.1000 | 0.0100 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2280 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0900 | 0.0200 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1935 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 4.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1920 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0100 | 0.0300 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0265 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0100 | 0.0200 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0290 |
| KXGDPYEAR-28-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0500 | 0.0900 | 0.0600 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.4200 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.960 | 2.3250 | |||||||||
2029 — E[g] = 2.094% · Σ prob = 0.880 · KXGDPYEAR-29
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-29-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0700 | 0.0800 | 0.0800 | 7.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0075 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0800 | 0.0400 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0165 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0800 | 0.0400 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0480 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0800 | 0.0600 | 6.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0845 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0700 | 0.1400 | 0.0600 | 10.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1890 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1600 | 0.2000 | 0.1600 | 18.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.4140 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1300 | 0.0500 | 9.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2660 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1300 | 0.0300 | 9.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3135 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0100 | 0.0700 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0190 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0800 | 0.0600 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2150 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1440 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0300 | 0.0400 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0795 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0300 | 0.0100 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0870 |
| KXGDPYEAR-29-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0100 | 0.0600 | 0.0300 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2100 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.880 | 2.0935 | |||||||||
2030 — E[g] = 5.686% · Σ prob = 1.745 · KXGDPYEAR-30
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-30-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0900 | 0.1200 | 0.1100 | 10.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0105 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0900 | 0.0500 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0180 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1000 | 0.0600 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0640 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1200 | 0.0600 | 9.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1170 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1100 | 0.1400 | 0.1100 | 12.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2250 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0900 | 0.1400 | 0.1200 | 11.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2645 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.2600 | 0.6900 | 0.2000 | 47.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 1.3300 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1100 | 0.0700 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2640 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1000 | 0.0600 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3040 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0800 | 0.0400 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2150 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0300 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1200 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0100 | 0.0100 | 0.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0265 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0870 |
| KXGDPYEAR-30-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.1300 | 0.7500 | 0.0400 | 44.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 2.6400 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 1.745 | 5.6855 | |||||||||
2031 — E[g] = 2.524% · Σ prob = 1.010 · KXGDPYEAR-31
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-31-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0900 | 0.1300 | 0.1000 | 11.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0110 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0900 | 0.0600 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0210 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1000 | 0.0700 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0640 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1040 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0700 | 0.1100 | 0.1200 | 9.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1620 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1200 | 0.2000 | 0.1500 | 16.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3680 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1200 | 0.0800 | 9.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2520 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0700 | 0.0600 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1815 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0600 | 0.0500 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2090 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0800 | 0.0600 | 6.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2795 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0400 | 0.0800 | 2.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0960 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0600 | 0.0400 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2385 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0300 | 0.0500 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0870 |
| KXGDPYEAR-31-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0600 | 0.0900 | 0.0500 | 7.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.4500 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 1.010 | 2.5235 | |||||||||
2032 — E[g] = 2.216% · Σ prob = 0.800 · KXGDPYEAR-32
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-32-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0700 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0080 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0700 | 0.0400 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0180 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0600 | 0.0600 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0400 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0700 | 0.0800 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0650 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0400 | 0.0800 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0450 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1100 | 0.1600 | 0.2000 | 13.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3105 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1100 | 0.0900 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2240 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0900 | 0.0600 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1650 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0900 | 0.0600 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1900 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0600 | 0.0400 | 4.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1720 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0800 | 0.0600 | 6.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3120 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0400 | 0.0400 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1325 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0400 | 0.0500 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1740 |
| KXGDPYEAR-32-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0400 | 0.0800 | 0.1000 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3600 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.800 | 2.2160 | |||||||||
2033 — E[g] = 2.121% · Σ prob = 0.900 · KXGDPYEAR-33
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-33-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0900 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 9.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0095 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1100 | 0.0900 | 8.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0255 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.1200 | 0.0400 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0640 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.1100 | 0.4900 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1040 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1400 | 0.1200 | 10.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1800 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1000 | 0.1600 | 0.0400 | 13.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2990 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0600 | 0.0600 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1540 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0900 | 0.0800 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1650 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0600 | 0.0300 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1900 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0000 | 0.0700 | 0.0500 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1505 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0400 | 0.0500 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1440 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0400 | 0.0300 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1590 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0300 | 0.0500 | 2.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1160 |
| KXGDPYEAR-33-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0300 | 0.0900 | 0.0800 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3600 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.900 | 2.1205 | |||||||||
2034 — E[g] = 1.561% · Σ prob = 0.730 · KXGDPYEAR-34
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-34-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0900 | 0.1100 | 0.1200 | 10.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0100 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0105 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.1200 | 0.1200 | 7.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0600 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.1100 | 0.1000 | 7.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0910 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0700 | 0.1700 | 0.1500 | 12.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2160 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0700 | 0.1300 | 0.1300 | 10.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2300 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.1100 | 0.1100 | 7.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2100 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0400 | 0.0400 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1155 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | 2.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0760 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0645 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0720 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0795 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | 2.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1160 |
| KXGDPYEAR-34-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0200 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2100 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.730 | 1.5610 | |||||||||
2035 — E[g] = 2.435% · Σ prob = 1.070 · KXGDPYEAR-35
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-35-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.1200 | 0.1700 | 0.1200 | 14.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0145 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0700 | 0.1200 | 0.0600 | 9.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0285 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0800 | 0.1100 | 0.0800 | 9.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0760 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0700 | 0.0700 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0715 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0800 | 0.1600 | 0.1300 | 12.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2160 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1000 | 0.1800 | 0.1400 | 14.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3220 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0700 | 0.1200 | 0.1100 | 9.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2660 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0600 | 0.0600 | 5.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1650 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0600 | 0.1200 | 0.0800 | 9.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.3420 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0800 | 0.0600 | 6.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2795 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0400 | 0.0300 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1680 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1325 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0300 | 0.0400 | 0.0600 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2030 |
| KXGDPYEAR-35-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0200 | 0.0300 | 0.0700 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1500 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 1.070 | 2.4345 | |||||||||
2036 — E[g] = 1.775% · Σ prob = 0.845 · KXGDPYEAR-36
| Ticker | Band | Floor | Cap | Mid | Mid rule | Bid | Ask | Last | Prob | Prob source | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXGDPYEAR-36-T0.1 | 0.0% or Below | — | 0.10 | 0.10 | cap only (lower tail) | 0.0900 | 0.1100 | 0.1000 | 10.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0100 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B0.3 | 0.1% to 0.5% | 0.10 | 0.50 | 0.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0400 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 4.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0135 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B0.8 | 0.6% to 1.0% | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0600 | 0.0600 | 5.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0440 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B1.3 | 1.1% to 1.5% | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0500 | 0.0700 | 0.0700 | 6.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0780 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B1.8 | 1.6% to 2.0% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.1900 | 0.2800 | 0.2500 | 23.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.4230 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B2.3 | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0700 | 0.1500 | 0.0800 | 11.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2530 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B2.8 | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0700 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | 8.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.2240 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B3.3 | 3.1% to 3.5% | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 3.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1155 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B3.8 | 3.6% to 4.0% | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0400 | 0.0400 | 3.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1140 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B4.3 | 4.1% to 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0645 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B4.8 | 4.6% to 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.00 | 4.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0200 | 0.0300 | 0.0100 | 2.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1200 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B5.3 | 5.1% to 5.5% | 5.10 | 5.50 | 5.30 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0200 | 0.0100 | 1.5% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.0795 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-B5.8 | 5.6% to 6.0% | 5.60 | 6.00 | 5.80 | (floor+cap)/2 | 0.0100 | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | 2.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1160 |
| KXGDPYEAR-36-T6.0 | 6.1% or Above | 6.00 | — | 6.00 | floor only (upper tail) | 0.0000 | 0.0400 | 0.0500 | 2.0% | (bid+ask)/2 | 0.1200 |
| Totals (used in chart) | 0.845 | 1.7750 | |||||||||
Data from the World Bank (GDP current US$) and Kalshi public Trade API. Not financial advice.