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3690.HK November 5, 2026

Meituan (3690.HK): Recovery Plays as 2026E EPS Turns Positive on Core Local Commerce Scale

Meituan is a technology-driven retail company operating primarily in mainland China, with additional presence in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates through its Core Local Commerce and New Initiatives segments, offering food delivery, in-store services, hotel and travel booking, bike and e-moped sharing, power banks, micro-credit, supermarkets, e-commerce, and merchant services. The company is a large-scale platform with a market capitalization of about HK$505.8 billion and more than 111,000 employees, underscoring its reach across local commerce and on-demand services. Recent fundamentals show revenue growth of 14.4% year over year in the latest quarter, but earnings remain pressured, with trailing net income negative and operating margin slightly below zero. Valuation appears anchored to a forward recovery story rather than trailing earnings, with a forward P/E of 15.7 and consensus EPS estimates improving materially into next year. The stock also sits near its 200-day moving average after trading below the 52-week high, making it a notable name for investors tracking China consumer internet and profitability normalization.

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šŸ’” Key Insights / Thesis

  • ThesisMeituan is still in a recovery phase after a weak 2025, with 2026E EPS turning positive and 2027E EPS seen at 4.13 — the market is likely focusing on the earnings inflection rather than the latest trailing loss
  • FinancialsRevenue grew 14.4% YoY in the latest quarter to 104.2bn, but operating margin remained slightly negative at -0.6% and net margin was -10.0% TTM — growth is intact, yet profitability has not fully normalized
  • FinancialsFull-year 2025 results were sharply weaker, with net income of -23.4bn and EBITDA of -20.8bn versus 2024 net income of 35.8bn and EBITDA of 41.6bn — highlights how sensitive earnings are to margin pressure and spending
  • CapitalThe balance sheet remains strong with 188.5bn in cash and short-term investments and net debt of -41.8bn at year-end 2025 — this provides flexibility to absorb volatility and fund investment without near-term financing stress
  • MoatThe core local commerce franchise continues to scale across food delivery, in-store, hotel and travel, supported by 111,298 employees and a large merchant network footprint — scale and ecosystem breadth remain key competitive advantages
  • ValuationAt 80.3 HKD, the stock trades at 1.32x sales, 15.7x forward earnings and 0.83x EV/revenue, below the 111.1 HKD target price — valuation appears to reflect a recovery story rather than full growth normalization
  • RiskQuarterly earnings fell 96.6% YoY and trailing ROE/ROA were deeply negative at -21.8% and -8.1% — execution risk remains high if revenue growth does not translate into sustained margin repair
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