Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2000-03-09 | 2001-10-22 | 423 | $8.09 | $3.22 | -60.2% | -42.2% | -22.2% | -37.9% |
| Rally | 2001-10-22 | 2001-12-07 | 35 | $3.22 | $4.01 | +24.5% | +383.7% | +6.3% | +18.2% |
| Drawdown | 2001-12-07 | 2002-01-22 | 33 | $4.01 | $2.75 | -31.5% | -94.4% | -3.4% | -28.1% |
| Rally | 2002-01-22 | 2002-03-20 | 42 | $2.75 | $3.78 | +37.6% | +580.1% | +2.9% | +34.7% |
| Drawdown | 2002-03-20 | 2002-06-05 | 56 | $3.78 | $2.97 | -21.5% | -66.4% | -8.9% | -12.7% |
| Rally | 2002-06-05 | 2002-07-15 | 29 | $2.97 | $3.86 | +30.3% | +897.8% | -12.6% | +42.9% |
| Drawdown | 2002-07-15 | 2003-01-03 | 125 | $3.86 | $2.59 | -32.9% | -55.3% | -1.0% | -31.9% |
| Rally | 2003-01-03 | 2003-04-28 | 82 | $2.59 | $3.36 | +29.5% | +121.5% | +0.7% | +28.9% |
| Drawdown | 2003-04-28 | 2003-11-18 | 147 | $3.36 | $2.02 | -39.7% | -58.0% | +13.0% | -52.8% |
| Rally | 2003-11-18 | 2004-04-12 | 105 | $2.02 | $3.89 | +92.4% | +381.0% | +10.7% | +81.7% |
| Drawdown | 2004-04-12 | 2004-08-23 | 96 | $3.89 | $2.11 | -45.7% | -79.9% | -4.3% | -41.4% |
| Rally | 2004-08-23 | 2004-09-20 | 21 | $2.11 | $2.60 | +23.0% | +1,095.6% | +2.4% | +20.5% |
| Drawdown | 2004-09-20 | 2005-04-25 | 156 | $2.60 | $1.26 | -51.6% | -69.0% | +3.6% | -55.1% |
| Rally | 2005-04-25 | 2005-09-20 | 107 | $1.26 | $1.80 | +43.3% | +133.5% | +5.1% | +38.2% |
| Drawdown | 2005-09-20 | 2005-12-05 | 55 | $1.80 | $1.36 | -24.8% | -72.8% | +3.3% | -28.1% |
| Rally | 2005-12-05 | 2006-06-06 | 118 | $1.36 | $2.55 | +88.0% | +284.9% | +0.1% | +87.8% |
| Drawdown | 2006-06-06 | 2006-08-07 | 45 | $2.55 | $1.79 | -29.8% | -86.2% | +0.9% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 2006-08-07 | 2007-05-23 | 192 | $1.79 | $8.82 | +392.5% | +710.7% | +19.3% | +373.2% |
| Drawdown | 2007-05-23 | 2007-06-05 | 10 | $8.82 | $6.76 | -23.3% | -99.9% | +0.6% | -23.9% |
| Rally | 2007-06-05 | 2007-10-11 | 88 | $6.76 | $10.58 | +56.4% | +259.8% | +1.5% | +54.8% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-11 | 2007-11-30 | 37 | $10.58 | $7.48 | -29.3% | -90.5% | -4.7% | -24.6% |
| Rally | 2007-11-30 | 2007-12-28 | 21 | $7.48 | $10.24 | +36.9% | +4,215.9% | -0.2% | +37.0% |
| Drawdown | 2007-12-28 | 2008-03-18 | 51 | $10.24 | $6.78 | -33.8% | -87.0% | -10.0% | -23.8% |
| Rally | 2008-03-18 | 2008-05-14 | 39 | $6.78 | $8.97 | +32.3% | +510.7% | +5.9% | +26.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-05-14 | 2008-12-05 | 141 | $8.97 | $5.66 | -36.8% | -56.0% | -37.8% | +1.0% |
| Rally | 2008-12-05 | 2010-05-28 | 361 | $5.66 | $13.09 | +131.1% | +79.4% | +24.4% | +106.7% |
| Drawdown | 2010-05-28 | 2010-07-02 | 24 | $13.09 | $9.73 | -25.7% | -95.6% | -6.1% | -19.5% |
| Rally | 2010-07-02 | 2010-11-15 | 89 | $9.73 | $12.70 | +30.6% | +112.9% | +17.1% | +13.5% |
| Drawdown | 2010-11-15 | 2011-06-22 | 148 | $12.70 | $7.79 | -38.7% | -56.5% | +7.5% | -46.1% |
| Rally | 2011-06-22 | 2011-08-26 | 48 | $7.79 | $9.72 | +24.8% | +219.4% | -8.6% | +33.3% |
| Drawdown | 2011-08-26 | 2012-01-16 | 94 | $9.72 | $6.52 | -32.9% | -65.7% | +9.5% | -42.5% |
| Rally | 2012-01-16 | 2013-03-28 | 290 | $6.52 | $14.58 | +123.7% | +101.3% | +21.7% | +102.0% |
| Drawdown | 2013-03-28 | 2014-06-25 | 300 | $14.58 | $8.23 | -43.6% | -38.2% | +24.9% | -68.4% |
| Rally | 2014-06-25 | 2015-06-16 | 240 | $8.23 | $18.44 | +124.0% | +133.2% | +7.0% | +117.0% |
| Drawdown | 2015-06-16 | 2015-07-08 | 16 | $18.44 | $10.42 | -43.5% | -100.0% | -2.4% | -41.1% |
| Rally | 2015-07-08 | 2015-08-17 | 29 | $10.42 | $15.96 | +53.1% | +3,947.0% | +2.7% | +50.4% |
| Drawdown | 2015-08-17 | 2015-08-25 | 7 | $15.96 | $10.61 | -33.5% | -100.0% | -11.2% | -22.4% |
| Rally | 2015-08-25 | 2015-11-09 | 48 | $10.61 | $13.21 | +24.6% | +216.7% | +11.3% | +13.3% |
| Drawdown | 2015-11-09 | 2016-02-29 | 75 | $13.21 | $9.40 | -28.8% | -68.1% | -7.0% | -21.8% |
| Rally | 2016-02-29 | 2017-06-27 | 325 | $9.40 | $15.00 | +59.6% | +43.7% | +25.2% | +34.4% |
| Drawdown | 2017-06-27 | 2018-02-09 | 158 | $15.00 | $11.61 | -22.6% | -33.6% | +8.3% | -30.9% |
| Rally | 2018-02-09 | 2018-06-06 | 75 | $11.61 | $14.38 | +23.9% | +105.6% | +5.8% | +18.1% |
| Drawdown | 2018-06-06 | 2018-10-18 | 90 | $14.38 | $10.49 | -27.1% | -58.7% | -0.1% | -27.0% |
| Rally | 2018-10-18 | 2020-02-03 | 311 | $10.49 | $19.24 | +83.5% | +63.5% | +17.3% | +66.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-03 | 2021-04-15 | 295 | $19.24 | $11.81 | -38.6% | -34.1% | +28.4% | -67.0% |
| Rally | 2021-04-15 | 2022-03-31 | 234 | $11.81 | $22.95 | +94.3% | +104.5% | +8.6% | +85.7% |
| Drawdown | 2022-03-31 | 2022-04-25 | 16 | $22.95 | $17.25 | -24.8% | -98.9% | -5.2% | -19.7% |
| Rally | 2022-04-25 | 2022-07-04 | 47 | $17.25 | $24.58 | +42.5% | +568.8% | -11.0% | +53.5% |
| Drawdown | 2022-07-04 | 2022-09-16 | 54 | $24.58 | $17.98 | -26.9% | -76.8% | +1.3% | -28.1% |
| Rally | 2022-09-16 | 2022-11-15 | 38 | $17.98 | $30.81 | +71.4% | +3,466.7% | +3.1% | +68.4% |
| Drawdown | 2022-11-15 | 2022-12-23 | 29 | $30.81 | $22.00 | -28.6% | -94.6% | -3.7% | -24.9% |
| Rally | 2022-12-23 | 2023-05-29 | 102 | $22.00 | $35.00 | +59.1% | +214.9% | +9.4% | +49.7% |
| Drawdown | 2023-05-29 | 2023-10-20 | 97 | $35.00 | $21.64 | -38.2% | -71.3% | +0.4% | -38.6% |
| Rally | 2023-10-20 | 2024-06-11 | 155 | $21.64 | $34.23 | +58.2% | +110.7% | +27.3% | +30.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-06-11 | 2024-09-13 | 69 | $34.23 | $25.70 | -24.9% | -64.9% | +4.7% | -29.6% |
| Rally | 2024-09-13 | 2024-10-08 | 11 | $25.70 | $36.58 | +42.3% | +324,544.9% | +2.2% | +40.1% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-08 | 2026-06-26 | 418 | $36.58 | $21.81 | -40.4% | -26.8% | +27.9% | -68.3% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-06-26 | 2026-11-09 | 91 | $21.81 | $25.69 | +17.8% | +57.5% | +2.7% | +15.2% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.