Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1999-10-29 | 1999-11-05 | 6 | $2,666.19 | $3,608.61 | +35.3% | +33,180,723.9% | +0.5% | +34.8% |
| Drawdown | 1999-11-05 | 1999-12-23 | 35 | $3,608.61 | $1,872.50 | -48.1% | -99.1% | +6.4% | -54.5% |
| Rally | 1999-12-23 | 2000-01-04 | 5 | $1,872.50 | $2,401.00 | +28.2% | +27,653,583.9% | -4.0% | +32.3% |
| Drawdown | 2000-01-04 | 2000-01-20 | 13 | $2,401.00 | $1,477.54 | -38.5% | -100.0% | +3.3% | -41.8% |
| Rally | 2000-01-20 | 2000-02-03 | 11 | $1,477.54 | $1,902.33 | +28.8% | +32,574.5% | -1.4% | +30.2% |
| Drawdown | 2000-02-03 | 2000-02-21 | 12 | $1,902.33 | $1,237.44 | -35.0% | -100.0% | -5.5% | -29.4% |
| Rally | 2000-02-21 | 2000-03-06 | 10 | $1,237.44 | $1,539.11 | +24.4% | +24,308.9% | +3.4% | +21.0% |
| Drawdown | 2000-03-06 | 2000-05-29 | 56 | $1,539.11 | $884.99 | -42.5% | -91.7% | -1.0% | -41.5% |
| Rally | 2000-05-29 | 2000-06-12 | 10 | $884.99 | $1,572.97 | +77.7% | +197,029,934.3% | +4.9% | +72.8% |
| Drawdown | 2000-06-12 | 2000-07-28 | 34 | $1,572.97 | $1,169.72 | -25.6% | -88.9% | -1.8% | -23.8% |
| Rally | 2000-07-28 | 2000-08-10 | 10 | $1,169.72 | $1,634.53 | +39.7% | +458,924.5% | +2.8% | +36.9% |
| Drawdown | 2000-08-10 | 2000-10-18 | 45 | $1,634.53 | $1,125.09 | -31.2% | -87.7% | -8.1% | -23.1% |
| Rally | 2000-10-18 | 2000-11-10 | 18 | $1,125.09 | $1,477.54 | +31.3% | +4,438.9% | +1.8% | +29.5% |
| Drawdown | 2000-11-10 | 2001-01-11 | 40 | $1,477.54 | $1,174.34 | -20.5% | -76.5% | -2.9% | -17.7% |
| Rally | 2001-01-11 | 2001-06-25 | 111 | $1,174.34 | $2,831.95 | +141.2% | +637.7% | -8.2% | +149.3% |
| Drawdown | 2001-06-25 | 2001-07-24 | 21 | $2,831.95 | $2,154.75 | -23.9% | -96.2% | -3.9% | -20.1% |
| Rally | 2001-07-24 | 2002-04-18 | 181 | $2,154.75 | $7,444.78 | +245.5% | +461.9% | -4.0% | +249.5% |
| Drawdown | 2002-04-18 | 2002-07-18 | 61 | $7,444.78 | $3,982.87 | -46.5% | -92.5% | -21.6% | -24.9% |
| Rally | 2002-07-18 | 2002-09-03 | 33 | $3,982.87 | $5,411.33 | +35.9% | +938.6% | -0.4% | +36.3% |
| Drawdown | 2002-09-03 | 2002-10-11 | 27 | $5,411.33 | $4,201.34 | -22.4% | -90.6% | -4.9% | -17.5% |
| Rally | 2002-10-11 | 2002-12-03 | 38 | $4,201.34 | $5,478.55 | +30.4% | +481.4% | +10.2% | +20.2% |
| Drawdown | 2002-12-03 | 2003-03-17 | 70 | $5,478.55 | $3,790.04 | -30.8% | -73.5% | -6.3% | -24.5% |
| Rally | 2003-03-17 | 2005-12-29 | 694 | $3,790.04 | $27,780.82 | +633.0% | +106.1% | +45.4% | +587.6% |
| Drawdown | 2005-12-29 | 2006-07-14 | 135 | $27,780.82 | $16,583.45 | -40.3% | -61.8% | -1.5% | -38.9% |
| Rally | 2006-07-14 | 2006-09-19 | 46 | $16,583.45 | $20,288.91 | +22.3% | +201.9% | +6.6% | +15.8% |
| Drawdown | 2006-09-19 | 2007-01-11 | 77 | $20,288.91 | $14,515.30 | -28.5% | -66.6% | +8.1% | -36.5% |
| Rally | 2007-01-11 | 2007-02-21 | 29 | $14,515.30 | $17,581.03 | +21.1% | +428.6% | +2.4% | +18.7% |
| Drawdown | 2007-02-21 | 2007-04-27 | 47 | $17,581.03 | $12,513.19 | -28.8% | -83.8% | +2.5% | -31.3% |
| Rally | 2007-04-27 | 2007-07-16 | 54 | $12,513.19 | $19,166.03 | +53.2% | +631.3% | +3.7% | +49.5% |
| Drawdown | 2007-07-16 | 2008-03-18 | 164 | $19,166.03 | $10,767.02 | -43.8% | -58.8% | -14.1% | -29.7% |
| Rally | 2008-03-18 | 2008-05-15 | 39 | $10,767.02 | $17,098.02 | +58.8% | +1,885.2% | +7.0% | +51.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-05-15 | 2008-10-24 | 113 | $17,098.02 | $6,374.07 | -62.7% | -88.9% | -38.4% | -24.3% |
| Rally | 2008-10-24 | 2008-10-30 | 5 | $6,374.07 | $8,613.61 | +35.1% | +389,691,801.5% | +8.8% | +26.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-30 | 2008-11-25 | 19 | $8,613.61 | $5,426.58 | -37.0% | -99.8% | -10.1% | -26.9% |
| Rally | 2008-11-25 | 2009-09-02 | 195 | $5,426.58 | $22,177.88 | +308.7% | +516.8% | +16.0% | +292.7% |
| Drawdown | 2009-09-02 | 2009-10-07 | 25 | $22,177.88 | $16,211.36 | -26.9% | -95.8% | +6.3% | -33.2% |
| Rally | 2009-10-07 | 2011-01-14 | 321 | $16,211.36 | $35,984.30 | +122.0% | +87.0% | +22.3% | +99.7% |
| Drawdown | 2011-01-14 | 2011-02-22 | 25 | $35,984.30 | $28,767.93 | -20.1% | -89.5% | +1.7% | -21.8% |
| Rally | 2011-02-22 | 2011-05-02 | 49 | $28,767.93 | $42,274.23 | +46.9% | +624.0% | +3.5% | +43.5% |
| Drawdown | 2011-05-02 | 2011-08-22 | 77 | $42,274.23 | $27,695.23 | -34.5% | -74.9% | -17.4% | -17.0% |
| Rally | 2011-08-22 | 2011-11-04 | 52 | $27,695.23 | $37,544.59 | +35.6% | +336.9% | +11.5% | +24.0% |
| Drawdown | 2011-11-04 | 2011-12-19 | 32 | $37,544.59 | $29,840.64 | -20.5% | -83.6% | -3.8% | -16.7% |
| Rally | 2011-12-19 | 2014-07-30 | 647 | $29,840.64 | $91,865.41 | +207.9% | +55.0% | +63.4% | +144.4% |
| Drawdown | 2014-07-30 | 2014-10-17 | 52 | $91,865.41 | $56,794.28 | -38.2% | -90.3% | -4.2% | -33.9% |
| Rally | 2014-10-17 | 2014-12-29 | 51 | $56,794.28 | $74,163.77 | +30.6% | +273.8% | +10.8% | +19.8% |
| Drawdown | 2014-12-29 | 2015-07-20 | 138 | $74,163.77 | $44,612.22 | -39.8% | -60.5% | +1.8% | -41.7% |
| Rally | 2015-07-20 | 2015-11-19 | 85 | $44,612.22 | $67,864.64 | +52.1% | +246.8% | -2.2% | +54.3% |
| Drawdown | 2015-11-19 | 2016-11-10 | 240 | $67,864.64 | $52,073.65 | -23.3% | -24.3% | +4.1% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 2016-11-10 | 2017-06-14 | 146 | $52,073.65 | $70,199.03 | +34.8% | +67.5% | +12.5% | +22.3% |
| Drawdown | 2017-06-14 | 2017-09-14 | 66 | $70,199.03 | $53,838.60 | -23.3% | -63.7% | +2.4% | -25.7% |
| Rally | 2017-09-14 | 2018-04-30 | 151 | $53,838.60 | $69,355.69 | +28.8% | +52.6% | +6.1% | +22.7% |
| Drawdown | 2018-04-30 | 2018-11-23 | 139 | $69,355.69 | $37,555.21 | -45.9% | -67.1% | -0.6% | -45.3% |
| Rally | 2018-11-23 | 2020-02-12 | 299 | $37,555.21 | $58,104.07 | +54.7% | +44.5% | +28.4% | +26.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-12 | 2020-03-19 | 27 | $58,104.07 | $30,955.44 | -46.7% | -99.7% | -28.7% | -18.0% |
| Rally | 2020-03-19 | 2020-06-08 | 54 | $30,955.44 | $47,418.26 | +53.2% | +631.7% | +34.2% | +19.0% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-08 | 2020-07-10 | 25 | $47,418.26 | $37,867.82 | -20.1% | -89.6% | -1.5% | -18.7% |
| Rally | 2020-07-10 | 2021-01-21 | 132 | $37,867.82 | $84,320.50 | +122.7% | +361.0% | +21.0% | +101.7% |
| Drawdown | 2021-01-21 | 2021-03-10 | 32 | $84,320.50 | $66,972.60 | -20.6% | -83.7% | +1.2% | -21.8% |
| Rally | 2021-03-10 | 2021-06-08 | 63 | $66,972.60 | $83,283.78 | +24.4% | +139.1% | +8.4% | +15.9% |
| Drawdown | 2021-06-08 | 2022-10-25 | 341 | $83,283.78 | $56,488.42 | -32.2% | -24.9% | -8.7% | -23.5% |
| Rally | 2022-10-25 | 2024-06-27 | 413 | $56,488.42 | $167,029.81 | +195.7% | +93.8% | +42.1% | +153.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-06-27 | 2024-08-05 | 28 | $167,029.81 | $132,438.36 | -20.7% | -87.6% | -5.4% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-29 | 18 | $132,438.36 | $167,472.16 | +26.5% | +2,573.0% | +7.8% | +18.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-08-29 | 2025-04-11 | 148 | $167,472.16 | $124,655.35 | -25.6% | -39.5% | -4.1% | -21.5% |
| Rally | 2025-04-11 | 2026-01-21 | 190 | $124,655.35 | $308,455.88 | +147.4% | +232.6% | +28.2% | +119.3% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-21 | 2026-02-06 | 13 | $308,455.88 | $242,011.77 | -21.5% | -99.1% | +0.8% | -22.4% |
| Rally | 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-27 | 13 | $242,011.77 | $316,466.62 | +30.8% | +18,019.3% | -0.8% | +31.5% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-27 | 2026-04-13 | 31 | $316,466.62 | $227,445.10 | -28.1% | -93.2% | +0.1% | -28.2% |
| Rally | 2026-04-13 | 2026-06-01 | 33 | $227,445.10 | $291,782.08 | +28.3% | +570.1% | +10.4% | +17.9% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-06-01 | 2026-11-06 | 108 | $291,782.08 | $149,800.00 | -48.7% | -78.9% | -2.9% | -45.7% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.