Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1999-11-11 | 1999-12-28 | 34 | $1,051.05 | $36,270.66 | +3,350.9% | +25,048,757,957,659.2% | +5.5% | +3,345.4% |
| Drawdown | 1999-12-28 | 2000-01-13 | 9 | $36,270.66 | $20,411.05 | -43.7% | -100.0% | -0.5% | -43.2% |
| Rally | 2000-01-13 | 2000-01-18 | 4 | $20,411.05 | $27,449.34 | +34.5% | +12,764,281,547.9% | +0.4% | +34.1% |
| Drawdown | 2000-01-18 | 2000-01-27 | 8 | $27,449.34 | $18,205.72 | -33.7% | -100.0% | -3.9% | -29.8% |
| Rally | 2000-01-27 | 2000-02-11 | 11 | $18,205.72 | $51,238.77 | +181.4% | +1,973,046,381,010.4% | -0.8% | +182.3% |
| Drawdown | 2000-02-11 | 2000-03-06 | 16 | $51,238.77 | $27,590.10 | -46.2% | -100.0% | +0.3% | -46.5% |
| Rally | 2000-03-06 | 2000-03-09 | 4 | $27,590.10 | $33,596.11 | +21.8% | +24,476,375.5% | +0.7% | +21.0% |
| Drawdown | 2000-03-09 | 2000-04-04 | 19 | $33,596.11 | $16,478.99 | -50.9% | -100.0% | +6.6% | -57.6% |
| Rally | 2000-04-04 | 2000-04-10 | 4 | $16,478.99 | $20,927.19 | +27.0% | +345,272,552.1% | +0.7% | +26.3% |
| Drawdown | 2000-04-10 | 2000-04-28 | 14 | $20,927.19 | $9,853.61 | -52.9% | -100.0% | -3.5% | -49.5% |
| Rally | 2000-04-28 | 2000-05-04 | 4 | $9,853.61 | $11,918.17 | +21.0% | +16,021,606.9% | -3.0% | +23.9% |
| Drawdown | 2000-05-04 | 2000-05-15 | 6 | $11,918.17 | $8,605.48 | -27.8% | -100.0% | +3.0% | -30.8% |
| Rally | 2000-05-15 | 2000-06-08 | 18 | $8,605.48 | $20,551.81 | +138.8% | +19,635,622.8% | +0.6% | +138.2% |
| Drawdown | 2000-06-08 | 2000-06-15 | 6 | $20,551.81 | $15,015.02 | -26.9% | -100.0% | +1.2% | -28.1% |
| Rally | 2000-06-15 | 2000-06-28 | 10 | $15,015.02 | $21,021.03 | +40.0% | +481,211.8% | -1.6% | +41.6% |
| Drawdown | 2000-06-28 | 2000-08-21 | 36 | $21,021.03 | $10,304.06 | -51.0% | -99.3% | +3.1% | -54.1% |
| Rally | 2000-08-21 | 2000-09-01 | 10 | $10,304.06 | $13,457.21 | +30.6% | +83,433.3% | +1.4% | +29.2% |
| Drawdown | 2000-09-01 | 2000-10-30 | 38 | $13,457.21 | $5,086.34 | -62.2% | -99.8% | -8.0% | -54.2% |
| Rally | 2000-10-30 | 2000-11-03 | 5 | $5,086.34 | $6,381.38 | +25.5% | +9,223,175.2% | +2.0% | +23.5% |
| Drawdown | 2000-11-03 | 2000-12-22 | 35 | $6,381.38 | $2,543.17 | -60.1% | -99.9% | -8.5% | -51.7% |
| Rally | 2000-12-22 | 2001-01-16 | 13 | $2,543.17 | $7,272.90 | +186.0% | +70,117,780,891.4% | +1.6% | +184.4% |
| Drawdown | 2001-01-16 | 2001-01-30 | 8 | $7,272.90 | $5,668.17 | -22.1% | -100.0% | +3.5% | -25.6% |
| Rally | 2001-01-30 | 2001-02-19 | 15 | $5,668.17 | $7,132.14 | +25.8% | +4,645.1% | -5.3% | +31.1% |
| Drawdown | 2001-02-19 | 2001-04-04 | 32 | $7,132.14 | $4,138.52 | -42.0% | -98.6% | -15.2% | -26.7% |
| Rally | 2001-04-04 | 2001-05-07 | 22 | $4,138.52 | $9,553.31 | +130.8% | +1,450,479.9% | +14.5% | +116.3% |
| Drawdown | 2001-05-07 | 2001-07-11 | 47 | $9,553.31 | $5,489.87 | -42.5% | -94.9% | -6.6% | -35.9% |
| Rally | 2001-07-11 | 2001-08-22 | 29 | $5,489.87 | $7,695.20 | +40.2% | +1,781.1% | -1.3% | +41.4% |
| Drawdown | 2001-08-22 | 2001-09-17 | 19 | $7,695.20 | $4,504.51 | -41.5% | -99.9% | -10.9% | -30.6% |
| Rally | 2001-09-17 | 2001-12-13 | 61 | $4,504.51 | $7,357.36 | +63.3% | +659.0% | +7.8% | +55.6% |
| Drawdown | 2001-12-13 | 2001-12-24 | 8 | $7,357.36 | $5,771.40 | -21.6% | -100.0% | +2.3% | -23.8% |
| Rally | 2001-12-24 | 2002-03-22 | 58 | $5,771.40 | $9,759.76 | +69.1% | +880.2% | +0.4% | +68.8% |
| Drawdown | 2002-03-22 | 2002-06-26 | 65 | $9,759.76 | $4,889.27 | -49.9% | -93.1% | -15.2% | -34.7% |
| Rally | 2002-06-26 | 2002-07-12 | 12 | $4,889.27 | $6,221.85 | +27.3% | +15,683.1% | -5.4% | +32.6% |
| Drawdown | 2002-07-12 | 2002-10-10 | 61 | $6,221.85 | $4,635.89 | -25.5% | -70.3% | -12.7% | -12.7% |
| Rally | 2002-10-10 | 2003-02-17 | 88 | $4,635.89 | $7,835.97 | +69.0% | +349.6% | +3.9% | +65.2% |
| Drawdown | 2003-02-17 | 2003-03-10 | 16 | $7,835.97 | $5,818.32 | -25.7% | -99.1% | -3.3% | -22.5% |
| Rally | 2003-03-10 | 2003-05-26 | 53 | $5,818.32 | $13,757.51 | +136.5% | +5,884.7% | +15.6% | +120.9% |
| Drawdown | 2003-05-26 | 2003-06-23 | 20 | $13,757.51 | $10,566.82 | -23.2% | -96.4% | +5.2% | -28.4% |
| Rally | 2003-06-23 | 2003-07-09 | 13 | $10,566.82 | $14,451.96 | +36.8% | +43,147.9% | +2.1% | +34.7% |
| Drawdown | 2003-07-09 | 2003-09-26 | 53 | $14,451.96 | $10,228.98 | -29.2% | -80.7% | -0.5% | -28.7% |
| Rally | 2003-09-26 | 2003-10-16 | 14 | $10,228.98 | $12,744.00 | +24.6% | +5,130.2% | +5.3% | +19.2% |
| Drawdown | 2003-10-16 | 2003-11-11 | 19 | $12,744.00 | $9,215.47 | -27.7% | -98.6% | -0.3% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 2003-11-11 | 2003-12-04 | 18 | $9,215.47 | $11,167.42 | +21.2% | +1,372.6% | +2.2% | +19.0% |
| Drawdown | 2003-12-04 | 2004-03-25 | 74 | $11,167.42 | $8,033.04 | -28.1% | -67.4% | +3.7% | -31.8% |
| Rally | 2004-03-25 | 2004-05-12 | 32 | $8,033.04 | $10,735.74 | +33.6% | +881.5% | -1.1% | +34.7% |
| Drawdown | 2004-05-12 | 2004-05-17 | 4 | $10,735.74 | $8,258.26 | -23.1% | -100.0% | -1.2% | -21.9% |
| Rally | 2004-05-17 | 2004-06-14 | 20 | $8,258.26 | $10,510.52 | +27.3% | +1,987.7% | +3.8% | +23.5% |
| Drawdown | 2004-06-14 | 2004-08-11 | 43 | $10,510.52 | $5,367.87 | -48.9% | -98.1% | -4.4% | -44.5% |
| Rally | 2004-08-11 | 2004-09-06 | 19 | $5,367.87 | $6,813.07 | +26.9% | +2,262.0% | +3.5% | +23.4% |
| Drawdown | 2004-09-06 | 2004-12-15 | 70 | $6,813.07 | $4,016.52 | -41.0% | -85.1% | +8.3% | -49.3% |
| Rally | 2004-12-15 | 2005-02-15 | 41 | $4,016.52 | $5,011.26 | +24.8% | +289.6% | +0.4% | +24.4% |
| Drawdown | 2005-02-15 | 2005-05-17 | 63 | $5,011.26 | $3,031.16 | -39.5% | -86.6% | -3.0% | -36.5% |
| Rally | 2005-05-17 | 2005-09-27 | 93 | $3,031.16 | $6,062.32 | +100.0% | +554.2% | +3.6% | +96.4% |
| Drawdown | 2005-09-27 | 2005-10-20 | 17 | $6,062.32 | $4,701.58 | -22.4% | -97.7% | -3.1% | -19.3% |
| Rally | 2005-10-20 | 2006-01-16 | 62 | $4,701.58 | $10,135.14 | +115.6% | +2,169.2% | +9.3% | +106.2% |
| Drawdown | 2006-01-16 | 2006-01-23 | 6 | $10,135.14 | $6,494.00 | -35.9% | -100.0% | -1.8% | -34.1% |
| Rally | 2006-01-23 | 2006-02-02 | 8 | $6,494.00 | $8,183.19 | +26.0% | +145,421.6% | +0.6% | +25.5% |
| Drawdown | 2006-02-02 | 2006-03-16 | 30 | $8,183.19 | $6,165.54 | -24.7% | -90.7% | +2.7% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 2006-03-16 | 2006-05-30 | 38 | $6,165.54 | $9,084.09 | +47.3% | +1,206.7% | -3.5% | +50.8% |
| Drawdown | 2006-05-30 | 2006-06-27 | 19 | $9,084.09 | $6,728.61 | -25.9% | -98.1% | -1.6% | -24.3% |
| Rally | 2006-06-27 | 2007-06-21 | 245 | $6,728.61 | $15,033.79 | +123.4% | +128.6% | +22.8% | +100.6% |
| Drawdown | 2007-06-21 | 2007-08-16 | 39 | $15,033.79 | $10,679.43 | -29.0% | -89.0% | -7.3% | -21.7% |
| Rally | 2007-08-16 | 2007-12-05 | 76 | $10,679.43 | $17,004.51 | +59.2% | +367.6% | +5.2% | +54.0% |
| Drawdown | 2007-12-05 | 2008-01-30 | 37 | $17,004.51 | $11,918.17 | -29.9% | -91.1% | -8.7% | -21.2% |
| Rally | 2008-01-30 | 2008-02-28 | 19 | $11,918.17 | $15,972.23 | +34.0% | +4,758.3% | +0.9% | +33.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-02-28 | 2008-10-10 | 154 | $15,972.23 | $5,583.71 | -65.0% | -82.1% | -34.3% | -30.8% |
| Rally | 2008-10-10 | 2008-10-14 | 3 | $5,583.71 | $6,869.37 | +23.0% | +3,626,649,088.1% | +11.0% | +12.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-14 | 2008-10-24 | 9 | $6,869.37 | $5,095.72 | -25.8% | -100.0% | -12.1% | -13.7% |
| Rally | 2008-10-24 | 2008-11-05 | 9 | $5,095.72 | $6,465.84 | +26.9% | +78,558.0% | +8.7% | +18.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-05 | 2008-11-20 | 12 | $6,465.84 | $4,147.90 | -35.8% | -100.0% | -21.0% | -14.8% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-01-07 | 32 | $4,147.90 | $6,090.47 | +46.8% | +1,959.3% | +20.5% | +26.3% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-07 | 2009-03-06 | 41 | $6,090.47 | $4,354.36 | -28.5% | -87.3% | -24.6% | -3.9% |
| Rally | 2009-03-06 | 2010-06-22 | 327 | $4,354.36 | $16,253.76 | +273.3% | +175.9% | +60.3% | +213.0% |
| Drawdown | 2010-06-22 | 2010-08-24 | 46 | $16,253.76 | $12,837.84 | -21.0% | -72.5% | -4.0% | -17.1% |
| Rally | 2010-08-24 | 2011-10-24 | 290 | $12,837.84 | $28,065.36 | +118.6% | +97.3% | +19.2% | +99.4% |
| Drawdown | 2011-10-24 | 2012-06-08 | 157 | $28,065.36 | $17,695.06 | -37.0% | -52.3% | +5.7% | -42.6% |
| Rally | 2012-06-08 | 2012-09-07 | 65 | $17,695.06 | $22,229.30 | +25.6% | +142.2% | +8.5% | +17.2% |
| Drawdown | 2012-09-07 | 2012-11-16 | 49 | $22,229.30 | $16,138.82 | -27.4% | -80.7% | -5.4% | -22.0% |
| Rally | 2012-11-16 | 2013-02-13 | 59 | $16,138.82 | $21,344.54 | +32.3% | +230.1% | +11.8% | +20.5% |
| Drawdown | 2013-02-13 | 2013-06-26 | 92 | $21,344.54 | $15,234.98 | -28.6% | -60.3% | +5.5% | -34.1% |
| Rally | 2013-06-26 | 2013-10-02 | 67 | $15,234.98 | $18,581.62 | +22.0% | +111.0% | +5.7% | +16.3% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-02 | 2014-03-04 | 103 | $18,581.62 | $13,546.39 | -27.1% | -53.8% | +10.6% | -37.7% |
| Rally | 2014-03-04 | 2014-08-19 | 114 | $13,546.39 | $34,920.90 | +157.8% | +711.2% | +5.7% | +152.0% |
| Drawdown | 2014-08-19 | 2014-10-13 | 35 | $34,920.90 | $25,318.15 | -27.5% | -90.1% | -5.4% | -22.1% |
| Rally | 2014-10-13 | 2014-10-22 | 8 | $25,318.15 | $30,760.36 | +21.5% | +45,992.1% | +2.8% | +18.7% |
| Drawdown | 2014-10-22 | 2014-12-12 | 38 | $30,760.36 | $23,819.56 | -22.6% | -81.7% | +3.9% | -26.5% |
| Rally | 2014-12-12 | 2015-01-28 | 31 | $23,819.56 | $31,080.49 | +30.5% | +769.6% | 0.0% | +30.5% |
| Drawdown | 2015-01-28 | 2015-05-13 | 71 | $31,080.49 | $19,825.17 | -36.2% | -79.7% | +4.8% | -41.0% |
| Rally | 2015-05-13 | 2015-08-13 | 66 | $19,825.17 | $27,664.40 | +39.5% | +256.9% | -0.7% | +40.3% |
| Drawdown | 2015-08-13 | 2016-02-17 | 125 | $27,664.40 | $18,213.74 | -34.2% | -56.9% | -7.5% | -26.6% |
| Rally | 2016-02-17 | 2016-03-14 | 18 | $18,213.74 | $22,267.82 | +22.3% | +1,566.9% | +4.8% | +17.4% |
| Drawdown | 2016-03-14 | 2016-11-09 | 164 | $22,267.82 | $14,100.32 | -36.7% | -50.4% | +7.1% | -43.8% |
| Rally | 2016-11-09 | 2017-11-21 | 254 | $14,100.32 | $31,902.55 | +126.3% | +124.8% | +20.1% | +106.1% |
| Drawdown | 2017-11-21 | 2017-12-26 | 25 | $31,902.55 | $24,967.22 | -21.7% | -91.5% | +3.1% | -24.9% |
| Rally | 2017-12-26 | 2018-01-08 | 8 | $24,967.22 | $31,642.49 | +26.7% | +174,228.3% | +2.5% | +24.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-01-08 | 2018-05-31 | 98 | $31,642.49 | $20,532.90 | -35.1% | -67.1% | -1.5% | -33.6% |
| Rally | 2018-05-31 | 2018-08-27 | 60 | $20,532.90 | $25,393.35 | +23.7% | +144.1% | +7.1% | +16.6% |
| Drawdown | 2018-08-27 | 2018-10-29 | 41 | $25,393.35 | $17,378.57 | -31.6% | -90.3% | -8.8% | -22.7% |
| Rally | 2018-10-29 | 2020-02-20 | 324 | $17,378.57 | $37,873.73 | +117.9% | +83.3% | +27.7% | +90.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-20 | 2020-03-19 | 21 | $37,873.73 | $26,640.84 | -29.7% | -98.5% | -28.6% | -1.1% |
| Rally | 2020-03-19 | 2020-09-02 | 115 | $26,640.84 | $81,910.64 | +207.5% | +1,071.9% | +48.6% | +158.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-09-02 | 2020-10-26 | 35 | $81,910.64 | $65,508.63 | -20.0% | -80.0% | -5.0% | -15.0% |
| Rally | 2020-10-26 | 2021-06-23 | 162 | $65,508.63 | $168,561.16 | +157.3% | +335.0% | +24.7% | +132.6% |
| Drawdown | 2021-06-23 | 2022-01-27 | 150 | $168,561.16 | $82,180.86 | -51.2% | -70.1% | +2.0% | -53.2% |
| Rally | 2022-01-27 | 2022-03-18 | 32 | $82,180.86 | $107,949.44 | +31.4% | +756.6% | +3.2% | +28.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-03-18 | 2022-06-23 | 67 | $107,949.44 | $66,759.52 | -38.2% | -83.6% | -15.0% | -23.2% |
| Rally | 2022-06-23 | 2022-08-11 | 36 | $66,759.52 | $83,275.28 | +24.7% | +369.9% | +10.8% | +13.9% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-11 | 2022-10-13 | 41 | $83,275.28 | $47,059.99 | -43.5% | -97.0% | -12.8% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 2022-10-13 | 2023-02-09 | 83 | $47,059.99 | $70,618.12 | +50.1% | +242.9% | +11.2% | +38.8% |
| Drawdown | 2023-02-09 | 2023-11-01 | 179 | $70,618.12 | $37,450.51 | -47.0% | -59.1% | +3.8% | -50.8% |
| Rally | 2023-11-01 | 2024-01-15 | 51 | $37,450.51 | $60,857.08 | +62.5% | +1,001.2% | +12.9% | +49.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-01-15 | 2024-11-14 | 204 | $60,857.08 | $32,704.72 | -46.3% | -53.6% | +24.4% | -70.6% |
| Rally | 2024-11-14 | 2024-12-04 | 15 | $32,704.72 | $46,464.63 | +42.1% | +36,392.4% | +2.3% | +39.8% |
| Drawdown | 2024-12-04 | 2025-01-24 | 35 | $46,464.63 | $35,646.15 | -23.3% | -85.2% | +0.2% | -23.5% |
| Rally | 2025-01-24 | 2025-06-24 | 98 | $35,646.15 | $70,301.49 | +97.2% | +473.4% | -0.1% | +97.4% |
| Drawdown | 2025-06-24 | 2025-07-24 | 23 | $70,301.49 | $54,024.30 | -23.2% | -94.4% | +4.5% | -27.6% |
| Rally | 2025-07-24 | 2025-10-29 | 64 | $54,024.30 | $67,605.27 | +25.1% | +141.8% | +8.3% | +16.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-29 | 2026-06-26 | 162 | $67,605.27 | $33,150.00 | -51.0% | -67.0% | +6.7% | -57.7% |
| Rally | 2026-06-26 | 2026-08-11 | 32 | $33,150.00 | $40,700.00 | +22.8% | +403.2% | +5.1% | +17.7% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-08-11 | 2026-11-06 | 59 | $40,700.00 | $32,300.00 | -20.6% | -62.7% | -4.5% | -16.1% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.