Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2007-12-07 | 2008-01-07 | 19 | $4.22 | $6.65 | +57.6% | +41,441.6% | -5.9% | +63.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-01-07 | 2008-07-04 | 121 | $6.65 | $3.07 | -53.8% | -80.0% | -10.8% | -43.0% |
| Rally | 2008-07-04 | 2008-07-23 | 14 | $3.07 | $3.76 | +22.2% | +3,614.7% | +1.5% | +20.7% |
| Drawdown | 2008-07-23 | 2008-09-18 | 39 | $3.76 | $2.16 | -42.5% | -97.2% | -5.9% | -36.6% |
| Rally | 2008-09-18 | 2008-10-03 | 11 | $2.16 | $3.35 | +55.1% | +2,311,068.1% | -8.9% | +63.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-03 | 2008-10-27 | 16 | $3.35 | $1.87 | -44.3% | -100.0% | -22.8% | -21.5% |
| Rally | 2008-10-27 | 2009-01-06 | 49 | $1.87 | $3.35 | +79.4% | +1,919.1% | +10.1% | +69.3% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-06 | 2009-03-09 | 42 | $3.35 | $2.35 | -29.8% | -88.1% | -27.6% | -2.2% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2009-08-06 | 104 | $2.35 | $4.43 | +88.5% | +364.7% | +47.4% | +41.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-08-06 | 2010-05-25 | 199 | $4.43 | $2.64 | -40.3% | -48.0% | +7.7% | -48.1% |
| Rally | 2010-05-25 | 2010-10-25 | 106 | $2.64 | $3.82 | +44.6% | +140.3% | +10.4% | +34.2% |
| Drawdown | 2010-10-25 | 2011-10-04 | 235 | $3.82 | $0.86 | -77.5% | -79.8% | -5.2% | -72.3% |
| Rally | 2011-10-04 | 2011-10-27 | 17 | $0.86 | $1.83 | +112.4% | +7,080,350.7% | +14.3% | +98.1% |
| Drawdown | 2011-10-27 | 2011-11-25 | 22 | $1.83 | $1.31 | -28.2% | -97.8% | -9.8% | -18.4% |
| Rally | 2011-11-25 | 2012-02-17 | 55 | $1.31 | $1.93 | +47.1% | +485.2% | +17.5% | +29.6% |
| Drawdown | 2012-02-17 | 2012-03-30 | 31 | $1.93 | $1.47 | -23.7% | -88.9% | +3.5% | -27.2% |
| Rally | 2012-03-30 | 2013-01-09 | 193 | $1.47 | $2.98 | +102.7% | +151.6% | +3.7% | +99.0% |
| Drawdown | 2013-01-09 | 2013-07-09 | 120 | $2.98 | $1.92 | -35.6% | -60.3% | +13.1% | -48.7% |
| Rally | 2013-07-09 | 2013-11-19 | 92 | $1.92 | $2.84 | +47.9% | +192.0% | +8.2% | +39.7% |
| Drawdown | 2013-11-19 | 2014-03-13 | 78 | $2.84 | $1.85 | -34.8% | -74.9% | +3.3% | -38.0% |
| Rally | 2014-03-13 | 2015-04-17 | 270 | $1.85 | $7.44 | +301.7% | +266.2% | +12.7% | +289.0% |
| Drawdown | 2015-04-17 | 2015-07-08 | 56 | $7.44 | $4.05 | -45.6% | -93.5% | -1.7% | -43.9% |
| Rally | 2015-07-08 | 2015-08-13 | 27 | $4.05 | $5.11 | +26.2% | +778.1% | +1.8% | +24.4% |
| Drawdown | 2015-08-13 | 2016-01-21 | 110 | $5.11 | $2.67 | -47.7% | -77.4% | -10.3% | -37.4% |
| Rally | 2016-01-21 | 2017-03-24 | 289 | $2.67 | $4.87 | +82.3% | +68.8% | +25.4% | +56.9% |
| Drawdown | 2017-03-24 | 2018-03-26 | 248 | $4.87 | $3.49 | -28.4% | -28.8% | +13.4% | -41.9% |
| Rally | 2018-03-26 | 2018-10-10 | 134 | $3.49 | $5.32 | +52.7% | +121.6% | +4.8% | +47.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-10-10 | 2020-03-23 | 358 | $5.32 | $2.38 | -55.3% | -43.2% | -19.7% | -35.6% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2020-07-08 | 72 | $2.38 | $3.29 | +38.0% | +209.0% | +41.7% | -3.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-07-08 | 2020-12-22 | 116 | $3.29 | $2.40 | -27.0% | -49.5% | +16.3% | -43.3% |
| Rally | 2020-12-22 | 2022-02-08 | 278 | $2.40 | $3.87 | +61.4% | +54.4% | +22.6% | +38.8% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-08 | 2022-03-15 | 26 | $3.87 | $3.10 | -20.0% | -88.6% | -5.7% | -14.3% |
| Rally | 2022-03-15 | 2022-05-04 | 33 | $3.10 | $4.42 | +42.8% | +1,415.0% | +0.9% | +41.9% |
| Drawdown | 2022-05-04 | 2022-10-31 | 124 | $4.42 | $2.72 | -38.6% | -62.9% | -10.0% | -28.6% |
| Rally | 2022-10-31 | 2023-05-04 | 124 | $2.72 | $4.92 | +81.2% | +234.8% | +4.9% | +76.3% |
| Drawdown | 2023-05-04 | 2024-01-22 | 178 | $4.92 | $2.57 | -47.8% | -60.1% | +19.4% | -67.2% |
| Rally | 2024-01-22 | 2024-05-17 | 78 | $2.57 | $3.82 | +48.5% | +259.1% | +9.3% | +39.2% |
| Drawdown | 2024-05-17 | 2024-09-17 | 85 | $3.82 | $2.73 | -28.4% | -62.9% | +6.2% | -34.7% |
| Rally | 2024-09-17 | 2024-10-07 | 13 | $2.73 | $4.51 | +65.2% | +1,674,970.4% | +1.1% | +64.1% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-07 | 2025-04-07 | 123 | $4.51 | $2.77 | -38.7% | -63.3% | -11.1% | -27.5% |
| Rally | 2025-04-07 | 2026-02-27 | 221 | $2.77 | $4.91 | +77.5% | +92.4% | +35.9% | +41.6% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-02-27 | 2026-11-09 | 173 | $4.91 | $3.14 | -36.2% | -48.0% | +9.8% | -46.0% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.