Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2001-02-06 | 2001-02-19 | 10 | $32,252.52 | $22,016.48 | -31.7% | -100.0% | -3.8% | -28.0% |
| Rally | 2001-02-19 | 2001-06-25 | 84 | $22,016.48 | $64,648.71 | +193.6% | +2,431.8% | -6.4% | +200.0% |
| Drawdown | 2001-06-25 | 2001-08-29 | 46 | $64,648.71 | $36,562.44 | -43.4% | -95.6% | -5.7% | -37.7% |
| Rally | 2001-08-29 | 2001-09-10 | 9 | $36,562.44 | $44,463.95 | +21.6% | +23,846.4% | -4.9% | +26.5% |
| Drawdown | 2001-09-10 | 2001-09-17 | 6 | $44,463.95 | $33,904.66 | -23.7% | -100.0% | -4.9% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2001-09-17 | 2001-11-21 | 45 | $33,904.66 | $50,282.33 | +48.3% | +808.8% | +9.5% | +38.8% |
| Drawdown | 2001-11-21 | 2001-12-11 | 15 | $50,282.33 | $38,932.89 | -22.6% | -98.6% | 0.0% | -22.5% |
| Rally | 2001-12-11 | 2002-04-24 | 89 | $38,932.89 | $71,472.74 | +83.6% | +458.5% | -3.8% | +87.4% |
| Drawdown | 2002-04-24 | 2002-10-10 | 114 | $71,472.74 | $43,458.30 | -39.2% | -66.7% | -26.5% | -12.7% |
| Rally | 2002-10-10 | 2002-12-12 | 46 | $43,458.30 | $63,858.56 | +46.9% | +723.5% | +12.1% | +34.8% |
| Drawdown | 2002-12-12 | 2002-12-30 | 11 | $63,858.56 | $50,282.33 | -21.3% | -99.6% | -2.5% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2002-12-30 | 2003-11-10 | 213 | $50,282.33 | $130,734.06 | +160.0% | +209.7% | +19.1% | +140.9% |
| Drawdown | 2003-11-10 | 2004-05-10 | 121 | $130,734.06 | $75,018.98 | -42.6% | -68.5% | +3.8% | -46.4% |
| Rally | 2004-05-10 | 2006-01-02 | 415 | $75,018.98 | $215,483.55 | +187.2% | +89.8% | +14.8% | +172.4% |
| Drawdown | 2006-01-02 | 2006-02-03 | 24 | $215,483.55 | $163,222.16 | -24.3% | -94.6% | +1.3% | -25.5% |
| Rally | 2006-02-03 | 2006-05-11 | 67 | $163,222.16 | $256,005.06 | +56.8% | +443.5% | +3.3% | +53.5% |
| Drawdown | 2006-05-11 | 2006-06-14 | 23 | $256,005.06 | $182,157.45 | -28.8% | -97.6% | -5.8% | -23.0% |
| Rally | 2006-06-14 | 2007-07-10 | 267 | $182,157.45 | $477,477.14 | +162.1% | +148.3% | +22.8% | +139.4% |
| Drawdown | 2007-07-10 | 2007-08-17 | 27 | $477,477.14 | $315,898.88 | -33.8% | -97.9% | -4.2% | -29.6% |
| Rally | 2007-08-17 | 2007-10-16 | 39 | $315,898.88 | $488,936.60 | +54.8% | +1,581.8% | +6.4% | +48.4% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-16 | 2007-11-23 | 29 | $488,936.60 | $294,125.92 | -39.8% | -98.8% | -6.4% | -33.5% |
| Rally | 2007-11-23 | 2007-12-27 | 23 | $294,125.92 | $400,540.94 | +36.2% | +2,847.3% | +2.5% | +33.7% |
| Drawdown | 2007-12-27 | 2008-01-31 | 24 | $400,540.94 | $226,459.69 | -43.5% | -99.7% | -6.6% | -36.8% |
| Rally | 2008-01-31 | 2008-02-19 | 11 | $226,459.69 | $305,027.33 | +34.7% | +91,784.4% | -2.2% | +36.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-02-19 | 2008-03-17 | 20 | $305,027.33 | $226,459.69 | -25.8% | -97.7% | -5.4% | -20.4% |
| Rally | 2008-03-17 | 2008-06-04 | 54 | $226,459.69 | $375,507.13 | +65.8% | +959.1% | +7.9% | +57.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-06-04 | 2008-07-04 | 22 | $375,507.13 | $277,682.71 | -26.1% | -96.8% | -8.3% | -17.8% |
| Rally | 2008-07-04 | 2008-07-29 | 18 | $277,682.71 | $338,148.99 | +21.8% | +1,477.0% | +0.0% | +21.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-07-29 | 2008-10-10 | 51 | $338,148.99 | $137,493.38 | -59.3% | -98.8% | -28.8% | -30.5% |
| Rally | 2008-10-10 | 2008-10-14 | 3 | $137,493.38 | $172,540.71 | +25.5% | +19,196,542,740.1% | +11.0% | +14.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-14 | 2008-10-29 | 12 | $172,540.71 | $69,324.39 | -59.8% | -100.0% | -6.8% | -53.0% |
| Rally | 2008-10-29 | 2008-11-05 | 6 | $69,324.39 | $125,169.04 | +80.6% | +5,993,161,028,238.2% | +2.4% | +78.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-05 | 2008-11-20 | 12 | $125,169.04 | $98,979.83 | -20.9% | -99.3% | -21.0% | +0.1% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-02-11 | 55 | $98,979.83 | $203,612.49 | +105.7% | +2,624.5% | +10.8% | +94.9% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-11 | 2009-03-02 | 14 | $203,612.49 | $143,562.72 | -29.5% | -99.8% | -15.9% | -13.5% |
| Rally | 2009-03-02 | 2009-05-08 | 48 | $143,562.72 | $203,612.49 | +41.8% | +526.3% | +32.6% | +9.2% |
| Drawdown | 2009-05-08 | 2009-07-14 | 48 | $203,612.49 | $140,778.95 | -30.9% | -85.6% | -2.5% | -28.3% |
| Rally | 2009-07-14 | 2009-08-11 | 21 | $140,778.95 | $185,319.18 | +31.6% | +2,607.6% | +9.8% | +21.9% |
| Drawdown | 2009-08-11 | 2009-12-01 | 80 | $185,319.18 | $112,145.94 | -39.5% | -79.4% | +11.5% | -51.0% |
| Rally | 2009-12-01 | 2010-04-21 | 97 | $112,145.94 | $185,054.06 | +65.0% | +267.4% | +8.8% | +56.3% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-21 | 2010-05-26 | 24 | $185,054.06 | $141,247.02 | -23.7% | -94.1% | -11.4% | -12.2% |
| Rally | 2010-05-26 | 2011-01-19 | 166 | $141,247.02 | $351,872.71 | +149.1% | +299.7% | +20.0% | +129.1% |
| Drawdown | 2011-01-19 | 2011-03-14 | 35 | $351,872.71 | $240,667.66 | -31.6% | -93.5% | +1.1% | -32.7% |
| Rally | 2011-03-14 | 2011-06-03 | 58 | $240,667.66 | $397,101.63 | +65.0% | +780.9% | +0.3% | +64.7% |
| Drawdown | 2011-06-03 | 2011-08-22 | 55 | $397,101.63 | $195,023.79 | -50.9% | -96.2% | -13.6% | -37.3% |
| Rally | 2011-08-22 | 2011-09-01 | 9 | $195,023.79 | $240,667.66 | +23.4% | +35,978.1% | +7.2% | +16.2% |
| Drawdown | 2011-09-01 | 2011-09-26 | 16 | $240,667.66 | $166,392.64 | -30.9% | -99.7% | -3.4% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 2011-09-26 | 2011-12-05 | 50 | $166,392.64 | $256,435.54 | +54.1% | +784.6% | +8.1% | +46.0% |
| Drawdown | 2011-12-05 | 2012-01-09 | 25 | $256,435.54 | $196,487.60 | -23.4% | -93.2% | +1.9% | -25.3% |
| Rally | 2012-01-09 | 2012-03-02 | 37 | $196,487.60 | $305,318.01 | +55.4% | +1,912.4% | +6.9% | +48.4% |
| Drawdown | 2012-03-02 | 2012-07-26 | 101 | $305,318.01 | $189,288.70 | -38.0% | -69.7% | -0.7% | -37.3% |
| Rally | 2012-07-26 | 2012-08-20 | 17 | $189,288.70 | $234,175.95 | +23.7% | +2,244.0% | +4.3% | +19.4% |
| Drawdown | 2012-08-20 | 2012-11-16 | 63 | $234,175.95 | $179,549.01 | -23.3% | -65.4% | -4.1% | -19.2% |
| Rally | 2012-11-16 | 2013-02-20 | 64 | $179,549.01 | $272,235.42 | +51.6% | +414.9% | +11.2% | +40.4% |
| Drawdown | 2013-02-20 | 2013-04-16 | 39 | $272,235.42 | $201,719.18 | -25.9% | -85.6% | +4.1% | -30.0% |
| Rally | 2013-04-16 | 2013-10-17 | 124 | $201,719.18 | $328,221.04 | +62.7% | +168.9% | +10.1% | +52.6% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-17 | 2014-10-24 | 251 | $328,221.04 | $136,682.68 | -58.4% | -58.5% | +13.4% | -71.7% |
| Rally | 2014-10-24 | 2014-11-24 | 22 | $136,682.68 | $194,029.04 | +42.0% | +5,431.5% | +5.3% | +36.6% |
| Drawdown | 2014-11-24 | 2015-01-16 | 37 | $194,029.04 | $143,402.49 | -26.1% | -87.2% | -2.4% | -23.7% |
| Rally | 2015-01-16 | 2015-03-02 | 29 | $143,402.49 | $187,726.89 | +30.9% | +938.5% | +4.9% | +26.1% |
| Drawdown | 2015-03-02 | 2015-08-24 | 122 | $187,726.89 | $49,973.59 | -73.4% | -93.5% | -10.6% | -62.8% |
| Rally | 2015-08-24 | 2015-09-16 | 18 | $49,973.59 | $63,705.47 | +27.5% | +2,893.0% | +5.4% | +22.1% |
| Drawdown | 2015-09-16 | 2016-01-26 | 89 | $63,705.47 | $34,416.60 | -46.0% | -82.5% | -4.6% | -41.4% |
| Rally | 2016-01-26 | 2016-03-10 | 29 | $34,416.60 | $53,710.75 | +56.1% | +4,682.5% | +4.5% | +51.5% |
| Drawdown | 2016-03-10 | 2017-11-03 | 92 | $53,710.75 | $14,774.80 | -72.5% | -97.1% | +30.1% | -102.6% |
| Rally | 2017-11-03 | 2017-11-09 | 5 | $14,774.80 | $18,251.23 | +23.5% | +4,219,068.0% | -0.1% | +23.7% |
| Drawdown | 2017-11-09 | 2017-12-28 | 35 | $18,251.23 | $12,080.57 | -33.8% | -94.9% | +4.0% | -37.8% |
| Rally | 2017-12-28 | 2018-01-31 | 23 | $12,080.57 | $21,075.82 | +74.5% | +44,379.3% | +5.1% | +69.4% |
| Drawdown | 2018-01-31 | 2018-02-13 | 10 | $21,075.82 | $16,469.56 | -21.9% | -99.8% | -5.7% | -16.2% |
| Rally | 2018-02-13 | 2018-03-26 | 27 | $16,469.56 | $25,204.07 | +53.0% | +5,205.1% | -0.2% | +53.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-03-26 | 2018-07-25 | 83 | $25,204.07 | $20,076.35 | -20.3% | -49.9% | +7.1% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 2018-07-25 | 2018-10-04 | 47 | $20,076.35 | $32,895.66 | +63.9% | +1,312.0% | +2.0% | +61.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-10-04 | 2018-10-29 | 17 | $32,895.66 | $23,726.59 | -27.9% | -99.2% | -9.0% | -18.9% |
| Rally | 2018-10-29 | 2018-12-14 | 35 | $23,726.59 | $32,504.56 | +37.0% | +864.5% | -1.6% | +38.6% |
| Drawdown | 2018-12-14 | 2019-05-14 | 99 | $32,504.56 | $23,465.86 | -27.8% | -56.4% | +9.0% | -36.8% |
| Rally | 2019-05-14 | 2019-06-26 | 31 | $23,465.86 | $28,680.50 | +22.2% | +411.0% | +2.8% | +19.4% |
| Drawdown | 2019-06-26 | 2019-08-06 | 30 | $28,680.50 | $20,815.09 | -27.4% | -93.2% | -1.1% | -26.3% |
| Rally | 2019-08-06 | 2019-09-23 | 32 | $20,815.09 | $27,376.84 | +31.5% | +765.3% | +3.8% | +27.7% |
| Drawdown | 2019-09-23 | 2020-03-23 | 124 | $27,376.84 | $9,733.99 | -64.4% | -87.8% | -25.2% | -39.2% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2020-06-03 | 49 | $9,733.99 | $25,508.26 | +162.1% | +14,081.4% | +39.6% | +122.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-03 | 2020-10-30 | 103 | $25,508.26 | $18,555.41 | -27.3% | -54.1% | +4.7% | -32.0% |
| Rally | 2020-10-30 | 2021-05-11 | 131 | $18,555.41 | $35,024.97 | +88.8% | +239.4% | +27.0% | +61.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-05-11 | 2022-01-27 | 180 | $35,024.97 | $15,948.10 | -54.5% | -66.8% | +4.2% | -58.7% |
| Rally | 2022-01-27 | 2022-04-15 | 52 | $15,948.10 | $24,465.33 | +53.4% | +695.5% | +1.5% | +51.9% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-15 | 2022-09-08 | 101 | $24,465.33 | $16,035.01 | -34.5% | -65.1% | -8.8% | -25.7% |
| Rally | 2022-09-08 | 2022-09-26 | 11 | $16,035.01 | $21,684.19 | +35.2% | +100,544.6% | -8.8% | +44.0% |
| Drawdown | 2022-09-26 | 2022-10-26 | 21 | $21,684.19 | $15,296.27 | -29.5% | -98.5% | +4.8% | -34.3% |
| Rally | 2022-10-26 | 2023-08-01 | 192 | $15,296.27 | $42,499.28 | +177.8% | +282.4% | +19.5% | +158.4% |
| Drawdown | 2023-08-01 | 2023-11-13 | 69 | $42,499.28 | $22,650.00 | -46.7% | -90.0% | -3.6% | -43.1% |
| Rally | 2023-11-13 | 2023-11-22 | 8 | $22,650.00 | $27,600.00 | +21.9% | +50,481.0% | +3.3% | +18.6% |
| Drawdown | 2023-11-22 | 2024-01-17 | 38 | $27,600.00 | $21,400.00 | -22.5% | -81.5% | +4.0% | -26.5% |
| Rally | 2024-01-17 | 2024-04-23 | 66 | $21,400.00 | $34,750.00 | +62.4% | +536.6% | +7.0% | +55.4% |
| Drawdown | 2024-04-23 | 2024-08-05 | 71 | $34,750.00 | $26,950.00 | -22.4% | -59.4% | +2.3% | -24.7% |
| Rally | 2024-08-05 | 2024-09-02 | 20 | $26,950.00 | $34,550.00 | +28.2% | +2,187.7% | +8.9% | +19.3% |
| Drawdown | 2024-09-02 | 2024-10-31 | 38 | $34,550.00 | $26,750.00 | -22.6% | -81.7% | +1.0% | -23.6% |
| Rally | 2024-10-31 | 2024-11-14 | 11 | $26,750.00 | $39,200.00 | +46.5% | +633,835.4% | +4.3% | +42.3% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-14 | 2024-12-09 | 18 | $39,200.00 | $29,850.00 | -23.9% | -97.8% | +1.7% | -25.6% |
| Rally | 2024-12-09 | 2025-03-04 | 54 | $29,850.00 | $85,100.00 | +185.1% | +13,182.0% | -4.5% | +189.6% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-04 | 2025-04-07 | 25 | $85,100.00 | $62,500.00 | -26.6% | -95.5% | -12.4% | -14.2% |
| Rally | 2025-04-07 | 2025-06-18 | 48 | $62,500.00 | $92,400.00 | +47.8% | +678.8% | +18.1% | +29.7% |
| Drawdown | 2025-06-18 | 2025-07-04 | 13 | $92,400.00 | $73,100.00 | -20.9% | -98.9% | +5.0% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 2025-07-04 | 2025-10-30 | 79 | $73,100.00 | $141,000.00 | +92.9% | +713.0% | +8.6% | +84.2% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-30 | 2025-12-18 | 36 | $141,000.00 | $103,500.00 | -26.6% | -88.5% | -0.7% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 2025-12-18 | 2026-02-20 | 41 | $103,500.00 | $149,900.00 | +44.8% | +874.3% | +2.0% | +42.8% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-20 | 2026-03-04 | 8 | $149,900.00 | $108,500.00 | -27.6% | -100.0% | -0.6% | -27.0% |
| Rally | 2026-03-04 | 2026-03-13 | 8 | $108,500.00 | $136,900.00 | +26.2% | +151,490.5% | -3.5% | +29.6% |
| Drawdown | 2026-03-13 | 2026-06-09 | 59 | $136,900.00 | $102,200.00 | -25.3% | -71.3% | +11.4% | -36.7% |
| Rally | 2026-06-09 | 2026-06-17 | 7 | $102,200.00 | $133,100.00 | +30.2% | +1,349,415.1% | +0.5% | +29.8% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-17 | 2026-07-29 | 30 | $133,100.00 | $74,600.00 | -44.0% | -99.2% | -1.4% | -42.6% |
| Rally | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-14 | 13 | $74,600.00 | $95,800.00 | +28.4% | +12,655.2% | +6.4% | +22.0% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-08-14 | 2026-11-06 | 56 | $95,800.00 | $47,350.00 | -50.6% | -95.8% | -5.3% | -45.3% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.