Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2001-04-27 | 2001-05-30 | 24 | $7,944.46 | $12,104.35 | +52.4% | +8,221.7% | -0.4% | +52.8% |
| Drawdown | 2001-05-30 | 2001-09-12 | 76 | $12,104.35 | $8,444.89 | -30.2% | -69.7% | -12.5% | -17.8% |
| Rally | 2001-09-12 | 2002-04-19 | 158 | $8,444.89 | $34,289.57 | +306.0% | +834.6% | +3.0% | +303.1% |
| Drawdown | 2002-04-19 | 2002-05-14 | 18 | $34,289.57 | $24,158.56 | -29.5% | -99.3% | -2.5% | -27.1% |
| Rally | 2002-05-14 | 2002-07-12 | 44 | $24,158.56 | $32,243.88 | +33.5% | +422.5% | -16.0% | +49.5% |
| Drawdown | 2002-07-12 | 2002-10-11 | 66 | $32,243.88 | $18,443.63 | -42.8% | -88.2% | -9.3% | -33.5% |
| Rally | 2002-10-11 | 2003-01-10 | 66 | $18,443.63 | $31,596.40 | +71.3% | +681.0% | +11.0% | +60.3% |
| Drawdown | 2003-01-10 | 2003-03-13 | 45 | $31,596.40 | $22,789.74 | -27.9% | -84.0% | -10.3% | -17.6% |
| Rally | 2003-03-13 | 2003-08-15 | 112 | $22,789.74 | $37,108.97 | +62.8% | +199.5% | +19.1% | +43.7% |
| Drawdown | 2003-08-15 | 2003-11-24 | 72 | $37,108.97 | $28,268.70 | -23.8% | -61.4% | +6.2% | -30.0% |
| Rally | 2003-11-24 | 2004-01-28 | 48 | $28,268.70 | $43,062.35 | +52.3% | +811.3% | +7.3% | +45.1% |
| Drawdown | 2004-01-28 | 2004-05-17 | 79 | $43,062.35 | $22,713.82 | -47.3% | -87.0% | -3.9% | -43.3% |
| Rally | 2004-05-17 | 2004-06-01 | 12 | $22,713.82 | $30,818.45 | +35.7% | +60,564.0% | +3.4% | +32.3% |
| Drawdown | 2004-06-01 | 2004-06-21 | 15 | $30,818.45 | $23,896.47 | -22.5% | -98.6% | +0.8% | -23.3% |
| Rally | 2004-06-21 | 2005-03-01 | 182 | $23,896.47 | $33,912.27 | +41.9% | +62.4% | +7.1% | +34.8% |
| Drawdown | 2005-03-01 | 2005-05-13 | 54 | $33,912.27 | $26,047.51 | -23.2% | -70.8% | -4.7% | -18.5% |
| Rally | 2005-05-13 | 2006-01-06 | 170 | $26,047.51 | $43,820.31 | +68.2% | +116.2% | +11.4% | +56.8% |
| Drawdown | 2006-01-06 | 2006-07-06 | 125 | $43,820.31 | $22,721.64 | -48.1% | -73.4% | -0.9% | -47.3% |
| Rally | 2006-07-06 | 2007-07-24 | 260 | $22,721.64 | $71,596.61 | +215.1% | +204.2% | +18.6% | +196.5% |
| Drawdown | 2007-07-24 | 2007-08-17 | 18 | $71,596.61 | $55,887.65 | -21.9% | -96.9% | -4.3% | -17.6% |
| Rally | 2007-08-17 | 2007-11-06 | 54 | $55,887.65 | $99,691.48 | +78.4% | +1,389.1% | +5.1% | +73.2% |
| Drawdown | 2007-11-06 | 2008-01-23 | 53 | $99,691.48 | $50,723.04 | -49.1% | -96.0% | -11.9% | -37.2% |
| Rally | 2008-01-23 | 2008-06-20 | 104 | $50,723.04 | $86,468.51 | +70.5% | +264.2% | -1.5% | +72.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-06-20 | 2008-10-24 | 91 | $86,468.51 | $43,620.27 | -49.6% | -85.0% | -33.5% | -16.1% |
| Rally | 2008-10-24 | 2008-11-03 | 7 | $43,620.27 | $59,524.30 | +36.5% | +7,247,822.0% | +10.2% | +26.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-03 | 2008-11-20 | 14 | $59,524.30 | $42,616.62 | -28.4% | -99.8% | -22.1% | -6.3% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-09-25 | 217 | $42,616.62 | $202,423.79 | +375.0% | +510.7% | +38.8% | +336.2% |
| Drawdown | 2009-09-25 | 2009-11-03 | 27 | $202,423.79 | $152,017.87 | -24.9% | -93.1% | +0.1% | -25.0% |
| Rally | 2009-11-03 | 2011-04-21 | 367 | $152,017.87 | $465,878.32 | +206.5% | +115.8% | +27.9% | +178.5% |
| Drawdown | 2011-04-21 | 2011-08-22 | 84 | $465,878.32 | $248,550.60 | -46.6% | -84.8% | -16.0% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 2011-08-22 | 2011-09-01 | 9 | $248,550.60 | $312,228.86 | +25.6% | +59,278.6% | +7.2% | +18.4% |
| Drawdown | 2011-09-01 | 2011-10-05 | 22 | $312,228.86 | $234,171.64 | -25.0% | -96.3% | -5.0% | -20.0% |
| Rally | 2011-10-05 | 2012-02-09 | 89 | $234,171.64 | $361,055.70 | +54.2% | +240.7% | +18.2% | +36.0% |
| Drawdown | 2012-02-09 | 2012-06-04 | 79 | $361,055.70 | $220,876.24 | -38.8% | -79.1% | -5.5% | -33.4% |
| Rally | 2012-06-04 | 2013-01-03 | 146 | $220,876.24 | $288,409.32 | +30.6% | +58.5% | +14.2% | +16.4% |
| Drawdown | 2013-01-03 | 2013-06-25 | 119 | $288,409.32 | $196,623.58 | -31.8% | -55.6% | +8.8% | -40.6% |
| Rally | 2013-06-25 | 2013-10-15 | 75 | $196,623.58 | $271,988.93 | +38.3% | +197.5% | +6.9% | +31.4% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-15 | 2014-03-20 | 108 | $271,988.93 | $203,585.08 | -25.1% | -49.1% | +10.2% | -35.4% |
| Rally | 2014-03-20 | 2014-07-18 | 82 | $203,585.08 | $253,521.05 | +24.5% | +96.2% | +5.7% | +18.9% |
| Drawdown | 2014-07-18 | 2014-11-05 | 73 | $253,521.05 | $148,527.48 | -41.4% | -84.2% | +2.3% | -43.7% |
| Rally | 2014-11-05 | 2014-11-24 | 14 | $148,527.48 | $186,939.76 | +25.9% | +6,182.1% | +2.3% | +23.6% |
| Drawdown | 2014-11-24 | 2015-01-07 | 30 | $186,939.76 | $143,512.84 | -23.2% | -89.1% | -2.1% | -21.1% |
| Rally | 2015-01-07 | 2015-04-23 | 74 | $143,512.84 | $247,766.85 | +72.6% | +542.1% | +4.3% | +68.3% |
| Drawdown | 2015-04-23 | 2015-08-12 | 77 | $247,766.85 | $185,825.14 | -25.0% | -61.0% | -1.3% | -23.7% |
| Rally | 2015-08-12 | 2016-01-04 | 98 | $185,825.14 | $302,005.95 | +62.5% | +248.6% | -3.5% | +66.0% |
| Drawdown | 2016-01-04 | 2016-11-24 | 221 | $302,005.95 | $194,115.10 | -35.7% | -39.6% | +9.5% | -45.3% |
| Rally | 2016-11-24 | 2018-01-29 | 310 | $194,115.10 | $404,091.57 | +108.2% | +81.5% | +29.4% | +78.7% |
| Drawdown | 2018-01-29 | 2018-07-04 | 126 | $404,091.57 | $290,598.13 | -28.1% | -48.3% | -4.9% | -23.2% |
| Rally | 2018-07-04 | 2018-08-05 | 27 | $290,598.13 | $357,870.45 | +23.1% | +598.3% | +4.7% | +18.5% |
| Drawdown | 2018-08-05 | 2018-10-11 | 56 | $357,870.45 | $280,987.80 | -21.5% | -66.3% | -3.9% | -17.5% |
| Rally | 2018-10-11 | 2019-02-20 | 94 | $280,987.80 | $367,317.25 | +30.7% | +105.1% | +2.1% | +28.7% |
| Drawdown | 2019-02-20 | 2019-10-07 | 168 | $367,317.25 | $269,086.65 | -26.7% | -37.3% | +5.5% | -32.3% |
| Rally | 2019-10-07 | 2020-02-17 | 105 | $269,086.65 | $393,147.54 | +46.1% | +148.4% | +15.0% | +31.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-17 | 2020-03-19 | 28 | $393,147.54 | $215,551.69 | -45.2% | -99.6% | -28.7% | -16.5% |
| Rally | 2020-03-19 | 2020-09-03 | 141 | $215,551.69 | $719,755.22 | +233.9% | +762.7% | +43.4% | +190.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-09-03 | 2020-11-01 | 47 | $719,755.22 | $572,617.76 | -20.4% | -70.7% | -5.4% | -15.1% |
| Rally | 2020-11-01 | 2021-02-07 | 81 | $572,617.76 | $975,405.21 | +70.3% | +424.4% | +18.9% | +51.5% |
| Drawdown | 2021-02-07 | 2021-03-23 | 35 | $975,405.21 | $735,349.26 | -24.6% | -86.9% | +0.6% | -25.2% |
| Rally | 2021-03-23 | 2021-04-29 | 32 | $735,349.26 | $902,344.71 | +22.7% | +401.1% | +7.7% | +15.0% |
| Drawdown | 2021-04-29 | 2021-09-22 | 120 | $902,344.71 | $665,135.27 | -26.3% | -47.3% | +4.4% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 2021-09-22 | 2021-10-28 | 29 | $665,135.27 | $806,512.09 | +21.3% | +433.7% | +4.6% | +16.7% |
| Drawdown | 2021-10-28 | 2021-12-26 | 50 | $806,512.09 | $589,228.25 | -26.9% | -79.4% | +2.8% | -29.8% |
| Rally | 2021-12-26 | 2022-01-12 | 14 | $589,228.25 | $747,647.42 | +26.9% | +7,168.4% | +0.0% | +26.9% |
| Drawdown | 2022-01-12 | 2022-03-17 | 50 | $747,647.42 | $427,503.44 | -42.8% | -94.0% | -6.7% | -36.2% |
| Rally | 2022-03-17 | 2022-08-09 | 117 | $427,503.44 | $648,992.78 | +51.8% | +145.7% | -6.6% | +58.4% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-09 | 2022-10-03 | 44 | $648,992.78 | $518,420.46 | -20.1% | -72.4% | -10.8% | -9.3% |
| Rally | 2022-10-03 | 2022-11-30 | 48 | $518,420.46 | $715,729.74 | +38.1% | +443.7% | +10.9% | +27.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-11-30 | 2023-01-05 | 29 | $715,729.74 | $571,037.52 | -20.2% | -85.9% | -6.7% | -13.5% |
| Rally | 2023-01-05 | 2023-04-18 | 84 | $571,037.52 | $810,853.63 | +42.0% | +186.3% | +9.1% | +32.9% |
| Drawdown | 2023-04-18 | 2023-10-26 | 154 | $810,853.63 | $418,695.33 | -48.4% | -66.1% | -0.4% | -47.9% |
| Rally | 2023-10-26 | 2023-11-06 | 9 | $418,695.33 | $512,066.35 | +22.3% | +27,953.5% | +5.5% | +16.8% |
| Drawdown | 2023-11-06 | 2024-01-22 | 60 | $512,066.35 | $383,097.69 | -25.2% | -70.4% | +11.1% | -36.3% |
| Rally | 2024-01-22 | 2024-02-19 | 23 | $383,097.69 | $502,877.58 | +31.3% | +1,870.3% | +3.2% | +28.1% |
| Drawdown | 2024-02-19 | 2024-08-05 | 119 | $502,877.58 | $269,752.25 | -46.4% | -73.3% | +3.6% | -50.0% |
| Rally | 2024-08-05 | 2024-10-08 | 41 | $269,752.25 | $357,359.86 | +32.5% | +463.3% | +10.9% | +21.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-08 | 2025-02-04 | 78 | $357,359.86 | $210,852.22 | -41.0% | -81.8% | +5.0% | -46.0% |
| Rally | 2025-02-04 | 2025-03-26 | 36 | $210,852.22 | $269,257.29 | +27.7% | +453.8% | -5.4% | +33.1% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-26 | 2025-05-23 | 40 | $269,257.29 | $181,234.50 | -32.7% | -91.7% | +1.6% | -34.3% |
| Rally | 2025-05-23 | 2025-11-13 | 118 | $181,234.50 | $416,819.49 | +130.0% | +492.2% | +16.1% | +113.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-11-13 | 2026-02-02 | 55 | $416,819.49 | $294,605.43 | -29.3% | -79.6% | +3.5% | -32.9% |
| Rally | 2026-02-02 | 2026-02-27 | 17 | $294,605.43 | $414,832.27 | +40.8% | +15,867.9% | -1.4% | +42.2% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-27 | 2026-03-23 | 16 | $414,832.27 | $288,146.96 | -30.5% | -99.7% | -4.3% | -26.2% |
| Rally | 2026-03-23 | 2026-05-08 | 33 | $288,146.96 | $429,500.00 | +49.1% | +2,007.4% | +12.4% | +36.6% |
| Drawdown | 2026-05-08 | 2026-07-29 | 56 | $429,500.00 | $232,500.00 | -45.9% | -93.7% | -1.1% | -44.7% |
| Rally | 2026-07-29 | 2026-09-03 | 26 | $232,500.00 | $287,000.00 | +23.4% | +669.9% | +5.9% | +17.5% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-09-03 | 2026-11-06 | 43 | $287,000.00 | $232,000.00 | -19.2% | -71.3% | -4.8% | -14.4% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.