Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2006-06-29 | 2007-05-31 | 229 | $34,135.99 | $69,715.86 | +104.2% | +119.4% | +20.2% | +84.0% |
| Drawdown | 2007-05-31 | 2007-08-17 | 54 | $69,715.86 | $48,979.86 | -29.7% | -80.7% | -5.5% | -24.2% |
| Rally | 2007-08-17 | 2007-10-30 | 49 | $48,979.86 | $79,726.35 | +62.8% | +1,125.0% | +5.9% | +56.9% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-30 | 2008-03-20 | 96 | $79,726.35 | $44,524.01 | -44.2% | -78.3% | -13.2% | -31.0% |
| Rally | 2008-03-20 | 2008-06-18 | 60 | $44,524.01 | $61,856.42 | +38.9% | +297.9% | +0.6% | +38.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-06-18 | 2008-07-16 | 21 | $61,856.42 | $44,974.21 | -27.3% | -97.8% | -6.9% | -20.4% |
| Rally | 2008-07-16 | 2008-08-11 | 19 | $44,974.21 | $61,226.15 | +36.1% | +5,882.9% | +4.8% | +31.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-11 | 2008-10-29 | 55 | $61,226.15 | $43,938.76 | -28.2% | -78.1% | -28.7% | +0.5% |
| Rally | 2008-10-29 | 2011-10-27 | 751 | $43,938.76 | $118,891.99 | +170.6% | +39.7% | +38.1% | +132.5% |
| Drawdown | 2011-10-27 | 2012-02-14 | 76 | $118,891.99 | $89,018.17 | -25.1% | -61.7% | +5.1% | -30.3% |
| Rally | 2012-02-14 | 2012-11-21 | 194 | $89,018.17 | $121,430.39 | +36.4% | +49.7% | +3.0% | +33.4% |
| Drawdown | 2012-11-21 | 2013-11-12 | 240 | $121,430.39 | $79,931.71 | -34.2% | -35.5% | +27.1% | -61.3% |
| Rally | 2013-11-12 | 2015-07-02 | 393 | $79,931.71 | $417,518.34 | +422.3% | +188.6% | +17.5% | +404.9% |
| Drawdown | 2015-07-02 | 2015-09-08 | 48 | $417,518.34 | $300,707.03 | -28.0% | -82.1% | -5.2% | -22.8% |
| Rally | 2015-09-08 | 2016-07-07 | 204 | $300,707.03 | $415,132.27 | +38.1% | +48.9% | +6.5% | +31.5% |
| Drawdown | 2016-07-07 | 2017-03-03 | 163 | $415,132.27 | $237,909.74 | -42.7% | -57.7% | +13.6% | -56.3% |
| Rally | 2017-03-03 | 2017-05-11 | 46 | $237,909.74 | $341,492.71 | +43.5% | +624.3% | +0.5% | +43.1% |
| Drawdown | 2017-05-11 | 2017-09-25 | 96 | $341,492.71 | $226,558.18 | -33.7% | -65.9% | +4.3% | -37.9% |
| Rally | 2017-09-25 | 2018-05-02 | 145 | $226,558.18 | $333,940.43 | +47.4% | +96.3% | +5.6% | +41.8% |
| Drawdown | 2018-05-02 | 2018-11-20 | 135 | $333,940.43 | $142,506.58 | -57.3% | -79.6% | +0.2% | -57.6% |
| Rally | 2018-11-20 | 2019-04-23 | 104 | $142,506.58 | $225,063.21 | +57.9% | +202.6% | +11.0% | +46.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-23 | 2019-08-26 | 86 | $225,063.21 | $115,159.73 | -48.8% | -86.0% | -1.9% | -46.9% |
| Rally | 2019-08-26 | 2020-01-17 | 98 | $115,159.73 | $227,175.00 | +97.3% | +473.8% | +15.7% | +81.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-17 | 2020-03-16 | 40 | $227,175.00 | $141,684.20 | -37.6% | -94.9% | -28.3% | -9.3% |
| Rally | 2020-03-16 | 2021-05-26 | 296 | $141,684.20 | $286,429.55 | +102.2% | +82.1% | +75.8% | +26.3% |
| Drawdown | 2021-05-26 | 2021-11-30 | 129 | $286,429.55 | $151,412.26 | -47.1% | -71.2% | +8.8% | -56.0% |
| Rally | 2021-11-30 | 2021-12-15 | 12 | $151,412.26 | $182,755.56 | +20.7% | +5,098.8% | +3.1% | +17.6% |
| Drawdown | 2021-12-15 | 2022-01-27 | 31 | $182,755.56 | $144,984.20 | -20.7% | -84.8% | -8.1% | -12.5% |
| Rally | 2022-01-27 | 2022-02-21 | 15 | $144,984.20 | $185,230.65 | +27.8% | +6,029.0% | +0.5% | +27.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-21 | 2022-10-26 | 168 | $185,230.65 | $86,990.52 | -53.0% | -67.8% | -11.9% | -41.1% |
| Rally | 2022-10-26 | 2023-02-10 | 75 | $86,990.52 | $149,094.98 | +71.4% | +511.2% | +6.8% | +64.6% |
| Drawdown | 2023-02-10 | 2023-07-07 | 101 | $149,094.98 | $92,282.97 | -38.1% | -69.8% | +7.5% | -45.6% |
| Rally | 2023-07-07 | 2023-08-31 | 39 | $92,282.97 | $130,482.47 | +41.4% | +837.6% | +2.5% | +38.9% |
| Drawdown | 2023-08-31 | 2023-10-20 | 32 | $130,482.47 | $104,366.48 | -20.0% | -82.8% | -6.3% | -13.7% |
| Rally | 2023-10-20 | 2023-12-28 | 49 | $104,366.48 | $142,239.16 | +36.3% | +391.5% | +13.2% | +23.1% |
| Drawdown | 2023-12-28 | 2024-03-19 | 54 | $142,239.16 | $109,573.20 | -23.0% | -70.4% | +8.3% | -31.2% |
| Rally | 2024-03-19 | 2024-05-31 | 50 | $109,573.20 | $190,502.37 | +73.9% | +1,524.0% | +1.9% | +71.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-05-31 | 2024-07-04 | 24 | $190,502.37 | $145,868.71 | -23.4% | -93.9% | +4.9% | -28.3% |
| Rally | 2024-07-04 | 2024-07-29 | 18 | $145,868.71 | $178,828.95 | +22.6% | +1,632.4% | -1.3% | +23.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-07-29 | 2024-08-13 | 12 | $178,828.95 | $114,674.19 | -35.9% | -100.0% | -0.5% | -35.3% |
| Rally | 2024-08-13 | 2024-09-27 | 30 | $114,674.19 | $149,302.07 | +30.2% | +817.6% | +5.6% | +24.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-09-27 | 2024-12-09 | 49 | $149,302.07 | $97,605.49 | -34.6% | -88.8% | +5.5% | -40.1% |
| Rally | 2024-12-09 | 2025-01-31 | 33 | $97,605.49 | $127,230.47 | +30.4% | +657.0% | -0.2% | +30.6% |
| Drawdown | 2025-01-31 | 2025-04-09 | 48 | $127,230.47 | $100,330.97 | -21.1% | -71.3% | -9.7% | -11.5% |
| Rally | 2025-04-09 | 2026-02-09 | 205 | $100,330.97 | $163,682.24 | +63.1% | +82.5% | +27.6% | +35.5% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-09 | 2026-03-04 | 14 | $163,682.24 | $124,323.16 | -24.0% | -99.3% | -1.4% | -22.7% |
| Rally | 2026-03-04 | 2026-04-27 | 39 | $124,323.16 | $150,800.00 | +21.3% | +248.2% | +4.4% | +16.9% |
| Drawdown | 2026-04-27 | 2026-06-23 | 38 | $150,800.00 | $96,200.00 | -36.2% | -94.9% | +2.7% | -38.9% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-06-23 | 2026-11-06 | 93 | $96,200.00 | $133,300.00 | +38.6% | +142.0% | +0.2% | +38.4% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.