Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2005-11-02 | 2007-01-03 | 290 | $0.75 | $1.71 | +128.0% | +104.7% | +16.6% | +111.4% |
| Drawdown | 2007-01-03 | 2007-03-05 | 42 | $1.71 | $1.31 | -23.5% | -79.9% | -3.0% | -20.5% |
| Rally | 2007-03-05 | 2007-10-30 | 162 | $1.31 | $2.93 | +123.8% | +250.1% | +11.4% | +112.4% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-30 | 2008-01-22 | 58 | $2.93 | $1.66 | -43.3% | -91.5% | -14.4% | -28.9% |
| Rally | 2008-01-22 | 2008-05-15 | 76 | $1.66 | $2.41 | +45.2% | +244.2% | +8.6% | +36.6% |
| Drawdown | 2008-05-15 | 2008-10-27 | 111 | $2.41 | $0.88 | -63.3% | -89.8% | -40.4% | -23.0% |
| Rally | 2008-10-27 | 2008-12-11 | 34 | $0.88 | $1.69 | +92.0% | +12,476.9% | +2.9% | +89.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-11 | 2009-01-21 | 27 | $1.69 | $1.27 | -25.0% | -93.2% | -3.8% | -21.2% |
| Rally | 2009-01-21 | 2009-11-23 | 209 | $1.27 | $2.61 | +105.6% | +138.5% | +31.7% | +73.9% |
| Drawdown | 2009-11-23 | 2010-02-19 | 61 | $2.61 | $2.04 | -22.0% | -64.2% | +0.3% | -22.3% |
| Rally | 2010-02-19 | 2010-11-05 | 178 | $2.04 | $3.04 | +49.1% | +76.0% | +10.5% | +38.5% |
| Drawdown | 2010-11-05 | 2011-10-04 | 226 | $3.04 | $1.74 | -42.8% | -46.3% | -8.3% | -34.4% |
| Rally | 2011-10-04 | 2012-02-22 | 95 | $1.74 | $2.58 | +48.4% | +185.1% | +20.8% | +27.6% |
| Drawdown | 2012-02-22 | 2012-07-12 | 97 | $2.58 | $1.97 | -23.8% | -50.7% | -1.7% | -22.1% |
| Rally | 2012-07-12 | 2013-01-28 | 137 | $1.97 | $2.78 | +41.3% | +88.8% | +12.4% | +28.9% |
| Drawdown | 2013-01-28 | 2014-03-20 | 280 | $2.78 | $2.16 | -22.4% | -20.4% | +24.8% | -47.1% |
| Rally | 2014-03-20 | 2015-05-27 | 291 | $2.16 | $3.72 | +72.5% | +60.3% | +13.4% | +59.1% |
| Drawdown | 2015-05-27 | 2016-02-12 | 178 | $3.72 | $2.13 | -42.9% | -54.7% | -12.2% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 2016-02-12 | 2018-01-29 | 485 | $2.13 | $5.05 | +137.4% | +56.7% | +53.0% | +84.4% |
| Drawdown | 2018-01-29 | 2019-08-14 | 378 | $5.05 | $3.46 | -31.5% | -22.3% | -0.5% | -31.0% |
| Rally | 2019-08-14 | 2020-07-08 | 223 | $3.46 | $4.27 | +23.4% | +26.8% | +11.6% | +11.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-07-08 | 2020-10-06 | 63 | $4.27 | $3.23 | -24.2% | -67.0% | +6.0% | -30.2% |
| Rally | 2020-10-06 | 2021-03-29 | 119 | $3.23 | $4.34 | +34.1% | +86.2% | +18.2% | +16.0% |
| Drawdown | 2021-03-29 | 2022-11-03 | 396 | $4.34 | $3.11 | -28.3% | -19.1% | -6.3% | -22.0% |
| Rally | 2022-11-03 | 2023-05-08 | 123 | $3.11 | $4.22 | +35.7% | +86.8% | +11.2% | +24.4% |
| Drawdown | 2023-05-08 | 2023-08-21 | 73 | $4.22 | $3.29 | -22.0% | -57.6% | +6.3% | -28.3% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2023-08-21 | 2026-11-09 | 791 | $3.29 | $10.59 | +221.8% | +45.1% | +71.6% | +150.2% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.