Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2007-07-25 | 2007-08-16 | 16 | $108,351.54 | $71,275.50 | -34.2% | -99.9% | -7.0% | -27.2% |
| Rally | 2007-08-16 | 2007-11-07 | 56 | $71,275.50 | $134,240.85 | +88.3% | +1,626.8% | +4.6% | +83.8% |
| Drawdown | 2007-11-07 | 2007-11-16 | 8 | $134,240.85 | $102,278.74 | -23.8% | -100.0% | -1.1% | -22.7% |
| Rally | 2007-11-16 | 2007-11-27 | 8 | $102,278.74 | $123,373.73 | +20.6% | +36,651.5% | -2.1% | +22.7% |
| Drawdown | 2007-11-27 | 2008-01-30 | 43 | $123,373.73 | $68,242.90 | -44.7% | -96.9% | -5.1% | -39.6% |
| Rally | 2008-01-30 | 2008-02-28 | 19 | $68,242.90 | $87,325.04 | +28.0% | +2,531.7% | +0.9% | +27.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-02-28 | 2008-03-17 | 13 | $87,325.04 | $61,709.70 | -29.3% | -99.9% | -6.7% | -22.7% |
| Rally | 2008-03-17 | 2008-05-27 | 51 | $61,709.70 | $83,120.50 | +34.7% | +335.7% | +8.5% | +26.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-05-27 | 2008-09-03 | 72 | $83,120.50 | $49,613.56 | -40.3% | -83.6% | -8.0% | -32.3% |
| Rally | 2008-09-03 | 2008-09-24 | 16 | $49,613.56 | $63,714.94 | +28.4% | +5,041.5% | -7.0% | +35.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-24 | 2008-10-09 | 12 | $63,714.94 | $42,304.13 | -33.6% | -100.0% | -23.3% | -10.3% |
| Rally | 2008-10-09 | 2008-10-15 | 5 | $42,304.13 | $51,101.32 | +20.8% | +1,365,389.9% | -0.2% | +21.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-15 | 2008-10-27 | 9 | $51,101.32 | $31,469.36 | -38.4% | -100.0% | -6.5% | -31.9% |
| Rally | 2008-10-27 | 2008-11-05 | 8 | $31,469.36 | $45,926.50 | +45.9% | +14,843,150.9% | +12.2% | +33.7% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-05 | 2008-11-20 | 12 | $45,926.50 | $34,283.16 | -25.4% | -99.8% | -21.0% | -4.3% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-06-10 | 140 | $34,283.16 | $77,936.05 | +127.3% | +338.5% | +24.8% | +102.5% |
| Drawdown | 2009-06-10 | 2009-07-13 | 24 | $77,936.05 | $61,949.17 | -20.5% | -91.0% | -4.1% | -16.5% |
| Rally | 2009-07-13 | 2009-09-28 | 56 | $61,949.17 | $89,260.09 | +44.1% | +417.4% | +18.0% | +26.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-09-28 | 2010-02-08 | 92 | $89,260.09 | $66,290.46 | -25.7% | -55.7% | -0.6% | -25.1% |
| Rally | 2010-02-08 | 2010-04-12 | 44 | $66,290.46 | $85,492.30 | +29.0% | +329.3% | +13.2% | +15.7% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-12 | 2010-05-26 | 31 | $85,492.30 | $65,883.35 | -22.9% | -88.0% | -10.7% | -12.2% |
| Rally | 2010-05-26 | 2011-04-25 | 230 | $65,883.35 | $174,247.44 | +164.5% | +190.3% | +25.0% | +139.4% |
| Drawdown | 2011-04-25 | 2011-08-22 | 82 | $174,247.44 | $90,553.79 | -48.0% | -86.6% | -15.8% | -32.2% |
| Rally | 2011-08-22 | 2011-09-21 | 21 | $90,553.79 | $116,622.31 | +28.8% | +1,982.1% | +3.8% | +25.0% |
| Drawdown | 2011-09-21 | 2011-10-05 | 10 | $116,622.31 | $84,036.66 | -27.9% | -100.0% | -1.9% | -26.0% |
| Rally | 2011-10-05 | 2011-11-14 | 29 | $84,036.66 | $124,511.46 | +48.2% | +2,945.6% | +9.4% | +38.7% |
| Drawdown | 2011-11-14 | 2011-12-19 | 26 | $124,511.46 | $95,698.90 | -23.1% | -92.2% | -3.7% | -19.4% |
| Rally | 2011-12-19 | 2012-02-09 | 36 | $95,698.90 | $135,725.74 | +41.8% | +1,054.2% | +12.2% | +29.7% |
| Drawdown | 2012-02-09 | 2012-06-04 | 79 | $135,725.74 | $87,801.96 | -35.3% | -75.1% | -5.5% | -29.9% |
| Rally | 2012-06-04 | 2013-01-04 | 147 | $87,801.96 | $129,722.92 | +47.7% | +95.3% | +14.7% | +33.0% |
| Drawdown | 2013-01-04 | 2013-06-24 | 117 | $129,722.92 | $91,590.08 | -29.4% | -52.7% | +7.3% | -36.7% |
| Rally | 2013-06-24 | 2013-10-22 | 81 | $91,590.08 | $112,616.61 | +23.0% | +90.2% | +11.5% | +11.4% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-22 | 2014-10-02 | 234 | $112,616.61 | $54,698.63 | -51.4% | -54.1% | +10.9% | -62.3% |
| Rally | 2014-10-02 | 2015-06-23 | 178 | $54,698.63 | $93,352.34 | +70.7% | +113.1% | +9.1% | +61.5% |
| Drawdown | 2015-06-23 | 2015-08-24 | 45 | $93,352.34 | $66,367.68 | -28.9% | -85.2% | -10.9% | -18.0% |
| Rally | 2015-08-24 | 2016-04-14 | 158 | $66,367.68 | $134,736.22 | +103.0% | +209.4% | +10.0% | +93.0% |
| Drawdown | 2016-04-14 | 2016-07-08 | 59 | $134,736.22 | $103,323.00 | -23.3% | -67.8% | +2.3% | -25.6% |
| Rally | 2016-07-08 | 2018-06-17 | 503 | $103,323.00 | $192,884.13 | +86.7% | +36.7% | +30.5% | +56.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-06-17 | 2018-07-03 | 14 | $192,884.13 | $153,184.35 | -20.6% | -98.4% | -2.4% | -18.2% |
| Rally | 2018-07-03 | 2018-10-03 | 70 | $153,184.35 | $204,390.56 | +33.4% | +182.4% | +7.8% | +25.6% |
| Drawdown | 2018-10-03 | 2019-06-17 | 179 | $204,390.56 | $135,533.13 | -33.7% | -43.9% | -1.2% | -32.5% |
| Rally | 2019-06-17 | 2019-07-28 | 32 | $135,533.13 | $164,156.62 | +21.1% | +352.2% | +4.7% | +16.4% |
| Drawdown | 2019-07-28 | 2020-02-03 | 149 | $164,156.62 | $108,323.70 | -34.0% | -50.5% | +7.4% | -41.4% |
| Rally | 2020-02-03 | 2020-02-16 | 12 | $108,323.70 | $131,660.49 | +21.5% | +5,916.9% | +4.0% | +17.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-16 | 2020-03-19 | 28 | $131,660.49 | $50,258.69 | -61.8% | -100.0% | -28.7% | -33.1% |
| Rally | 2020-03-19 | 2020-08-09 | 118 | $50,258.69 | $178,213.46 | +254.6% | +1,392.8% | +39.1% | +215.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-08-09 | 2020-11-02 | 69 | $178,213.46 | $108,683.22 | -39.0% | -83.6% | -1.2% | -37.8% |
| Rally | 2020-11-02 | 2021-02-07 | 80 | $108,683.22 | $296,905.22 | +173.2% | +2,270.5% | +17.4% | +155.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-02-07 | 2021-03-23 | 36 | $296,905.22 | $180,717.14 | -39.1% | -96.9% | +0.6% | -39.7% |
| Rally | 2021-03-23 | 2021-06-27 | 83 | $180,717.14 | $283,231.95 | +56.7% | +291.3% | +9.5% | +47.3% |
| Drawdown | 2021-06-27 | 2021-08-19 | 46 | $283,231.95 | $205,767.05 | -27.4% | -82.6% | +2.9% | -30.3% |
| Rally | 2021-08-19 | 2021-10-04 | 36 | $205,767.05 | $257,350.41 | +25.1% | +378.7% | -2.4% | +27.5% |
| Drawdown | 2021-10-04 | 2021-11-30 | 48 | $257,350.41 | $174,007.36 | -32.4% | -87.2% | +6.2% | -38.6% |
| Rally | 2021-11-30 | 2022-01-16 | 39 | $174,007.36 | $257,350.42 | +47.9% | +1,153.7% | +2.1% | +45.8% |
| Drawdown | 2022-01-16 | 2022-03-17 | 49 | $257,350.42 | $174,902.00 | -32.0% | -86.3% | -5.4% | -26.7% |
| Rally | 2022-03-17 | 2022-06-12 | 70 | $174,902.00 | $238,305.51 | +36.3% | +204.5% | -11.6% | +47.8% |
| Drawdown | 2022-06-12 | 2022-07-12 | 26 | $238,305.51 | $147,615.49 | -38.1% | -99.0% | -2.1% | -36.0% |
| Rally | 2022-07-12 | 2022-08-15 | 29 | $147,615.49 | $194,844.06 | +32.0% | +1,015.8% | +12.5% | +19.5% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-15 | 2022-09-30 | 37 | $194,844.06 | $128,380.75 | -34.1% | -94.2% | -16.6% | -17.6% |
| Rally | 2022-09-30 | 2023-06-07 | 196 | $128,380.75 | $198,622.70 | +54.7% | +75.3% | +19.0% | +35.7% |
| Drawdown | 2023-06-07 | 2023-06-29 | 20 | $198,622.70 | $151,972.82 | -23.5% | -96.6% | +3.0% | -26.5% |
| Rally | 2023-06-29 | 2023-07-31 | 28 | $151,972.82 | $207,760.30 | +36.7% | +1,567.9% | +4.4% | +32.3% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-31 | 2023-11-01 | 76 | $207,760.30 | $118,257.65 | -43.1% | -84.6% | -7.7% | -35.4% |
| Rally | 2023-11-01 | 2023-11-06 | 5 | $118,257.65 | $152,733.10 | +29.2% | +39,777,345.1% | +3.0% | +26.1% |
| Drawdown | 2023-11-06 | 2024-05-31 | 158 | $152,733.10 | $98,220.64 | -35.7% | -50.5% | +20.9% | -56.6% |
| Rally | 2024-05-31 | 2024-06-20 | 14 | $98,220.64 | $118,846.98 | +21.0% | +2,991.3% | +3.7% | +17.3% |
| Drawdown | 2024-06-20 | 2024-08-05 | 33 | $118,846.98 | $91,148.75 | -23.3% | -86.8% | -5.2% | -18.1% |
| Rally | 2024-08-05 | 2024-10-10 | 42 | $91,148.75 | $120,811.39 | +32.5% | +442.2% | +11.4% | +21.1% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-10 | 2024-11-15 | 27 | $120,811.39 | $94,390.04 | -21.9% | -90.0% | +1.6% | -23.4% |
| Rally | 2024-11-15 | 2025-03-13 | 77 | $94,390.04 | $136,723.13 | +44.8% | +236.2% | -5.9% | +50.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-13 | 2025-05-23 | 49 | $136,723.13 | $81,100.00 | -40.7% | -93.2% | +5.1% | -45.8% |
| Rally | 2025-05-23 | 2025-07-01 | 26 | $81,100.00 | $126,500.00 | +56.0% | +7,335.2% | +6.8% | +49.2% |
| Drawdown | 2025-07-01 | 2025-10-01 | 66 | $126,500.00 | $99,900.00 | -21.0% | -59.4% | +8.3% | -29.3% |
| Rally | 2025-10-01 | 2025-10-29 | 17 | $99,900.00 | $137,000.00 | +37.1% | +10,692.5% | +2.7% | +34.5% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-29 | 2026-01-09 | 50 | $137,000.00 | $99,700.00 | -27.2% | -79.8% | +1.1% | -28.3% |
| Rally | 2026-01-09 | 2026-02-24 | 30 | $99,700.00 | $137,700.00 | +38.1% | +1,406.6% | -1.1% | +39.2% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-24 | 2026-03-23 | 19 | $137,700.00 | $105,600.00 | -23.3% | -97.0% | -4.5% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2026-03-23 | 2026-04-29 | 28 | $105,600.00 | $149,800.00 | +41.9% | +2,226.1% | +8.4% | +33.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-04-29 | 2026-06-26 | 39 | $149,800.00 | $89,500.00 | -40.3% | -96.4% | +3.1% | -43.3% |
| Rally | 2026-06-26 | 2026-10-14 | 73 | $89,500.00 | $163,200.00 | +82.3% | +695.5% | +5.0% | +77.4% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-10-14 | 2026-11-06 | 18 | $163,200.00 | $109,400.00 | -33.0% | -99.6% | -4.4% | -28.5% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.