Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2006-12-11 | 2008-03-17 | 311 | $3.54 | $1.44 | -59.5% | -51.9% | -9.7% | -49.8% |
| Rally | 2008-03-17 | 2008-05-19 | 41 | $1.44 | $2.21 | +54.2% | +1,330.5% | +11.8% | +42.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-05-19 | 2008-11-24 | 129 | $2.21 | $0.62 | -71.8% | -91.6% | -40.3% | -31.5% |
| Rally | 2008-11-24 | 2009-01-07 | 30 | $0.62 | $0.89 | +43.0% | +1,913.1% | +6.4% | +36.5% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-07 | 2009-01-21 | 11 | $0.89 | $0.68 | -24.2% | -99.8% | -7.3% | -16.9% |
| Rally | 2009-01-21 | 2009-09-15 | 162 | $0.68 | $2.40 | +255.7% | +619.7% | +25.3% | +230.4% |
| Drawdown | 2009-09-15 | 2009-11-27 | 52 | $2.40 | $1.91 | -20.6% | -67.3% | +3.7% | -24.3% |
| Rally | 2009-11-27 | 2010-01-15 | 34 | $1.91 | $2.85 | +49.5% | +1,865.1% | +4.1% | +45.4% |
| Drawdown | 2010-01-15 | 2010-02-09 | 18 | $2.85 | $2.25 | -21.0% | -96.3% | -5.8% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 2010-02-09 | 2010-04-27 | 51 | $2.25 | $3.62 | +60.6% | +939.5% | +10.6% | +50.0% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-27 | 2010-07-05 | 47 | $3.62 | $2.57 | -28.8% | -83.8% | -13.6% | -15.2% |
| Rally | 2010-07-05 | 2010-11-09 | 90 | $2.57 | $3.66 | +42.0% | +167.1% | +18.7% | +23.4% |
| Drawdown | 2010-11-09 | 2011-08-04 | 183 | $3.66 | $1.75 | -52.0% | -63.6% | -1.1% | -50.9% |
| Rally | 2011-08-04 | 2011-08-16 | 9 | $1.75 | $2.22 | +26.4% | +70,641.9% | -0.6% | +27.0% |
| Drawdown | 2011-08-16 | 2011-10-03 | 33 | $2.22 | $1.41 | -36.2% | -96.8% | -7.8% | -28.4% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2011-10-28 | 19 | $1.41 | $2.02 | +42.5% | +10,896.2% | +16.9% | +25.6% |
| Drawdown | 2011-10-28 | 2011-12-20 | 38 | $2.02 | $1.57 | -22.1% | -80.9% | -3.4% | -18.7% |
| Rally | 2011-12-20 | 2012-02-08 | 31 | $1.57 | $2.18 | +38.9% | +1,344.4% | +8.8% | +30.1% |
| Drawdown | 2012-02-08 | 2012-06-05 | 81 | $2.18 | $1.20 | -44.9% | -84.4% | -4.8% | -40.2% |
| Rally | 2012-06-05 | 2013-01-09 | 150 | $1.20 | $2.02 | +68.1% | +139.2% | +13.7% | +54.4% |
| Drawdown | 2013-01-09 | 2014-03-14 | 289 | $2.02 | $1.33 | -34.0% | -30.4% | +26.0% | -60.0% |
| Rally | 2014-03-14 | 2014-09-04 | 119 | $1.33 | $1.86 | +39.6% | +102.7% | +8.5% | +31.1% |
| Drawdown | 2014-09-04 | 2014-12-23 | 76 | $1.86 | $1.47 | -20.7% | -53.7% | +4.2% | -25.0% |
| Rally | 2014-12-23 | 2015-06-02 | 106 | $1.47 | $2.20 | +49.0% | +158.0% | +1.3% | +47.7% |
| Drawdown | 2015-06-02 | 2015-07-08 | 26 | $2.20 | $1.63 | -25.9% | -94.5% | -3.0% | -22.9% |
| Rally | 2015-07-08 | 2015-07-21 | 10 | $1.63 | $2.02 | +24.3% | +24,078.4% | +3.5% | +20.8% |
| Drawdown | 2015-07-21 | 2015-08-25 | 26 | $2.02 | $1.51 | -25.2% | -94.0% | -11.9% | -13.3% |
| Rally | 2015-08-25 | 2018-03-16 | 631 | $1.51 | $10.47 | +592.0% | +116.5% | +47.4% | +544.7% |
| Drawdown | 2018-03-16 | 2018-10-29 | 152 | $10.47 | $4.05 | -61.3% | -79.3% | -4.0% | -57.3% |
| Rally | 2018-10-29 | 2019-02-22 | 79 | $4.05 | $7.22 | +78.3% | +532.8% | +5.7% | +72.6% |
| Drawdown | 2019-02-22 | 2019-08-06 | 111 | $7.22 | $4.03 | -44.2% | -73.4% | +3.2% | -47.3% |
| Rally | 2019-08-06 | 2020-01-17 | 114 | $4.03 | $7.28 | +80.6% | +269.3% | +15.5% | +65.0% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-17 | 2020-03-19 | 43 | $7.28 | $4.51 | -38.1% | -94.0% | -27.6% | -10.5% |
| Rally | 2020-03-19 | 2020-11-26 | 171 | $4.51 | $10.06 | +123.3% | +226.7% | +50.6% | +72.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-11-26 | 2020-12-01 | 4 | $10.06 | $8.00 | -20.5% | -100.0% | +0.9% | -21.4% |
| Rally | 2020-12-01 | 2021-05-04 | 104 | $8.00 | $15.26 | +90.9% | +378.8% | +13.7% | +77.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-05-04 | 2021-11-05 | 127 | $15.26 | $9.40 | -38.4% | -61.8% | +12.8% | -51.2% |
| Rally | 2021-11-05 | 2021-11-25 | 15 | $9.40 | $11.55 | +22.9% | +3,082.5% | +0.1% | +22.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-11-25 | 2022-03-15 | 75 | $11.55 | $8.74 | -24.3% | -60.7% | -9.3% | -15.0% |
| Rally | 2022-03-15 | 2022-06-13 | 59 | $8.74 | $11.55 | +32.1% | +228.5% | -12.0% | +44.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-06-13 | 2022-10-31 | 98 | $11.55 | $5.50 | -52.4% | -85.2% | +3.3% | -55.7% |
| Rally | 2022-10-31 | 2023-02-16 | 73 | $5.50 | $9.46 | +72.2% | +553.3% | +5.6% | +66.6% |
| Drawdown | 2023-02-16 | 2023-09-28 | 152 | $9.46 | $4.85 | -48.7% | -67.0% | +5.1% | -53.8% |
| Rally | 2023-09-28 | 2023-11-15 | 33 | $4.85 | $7.30 | +50.5% | +2,165.5% | +4.7% | +45.7% |
| Drawdown | 2023-11-15 | 2024-01-31 | 53 | $7.30 | $4.35 | -40.4% | -91.5% | +7.6% | -48.0% |
| Rally | 2024-01-31 | 2024-07-11 | 108 | $4.35 | $8.54 | +96.1% | +381.4% | +15.2% | +80.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-07-11 | 2024-09-12 | 45 | $8.54 | $5.37 | -37.0% | -92.5% | +0.2% | -37.2% |
| Rally | 2024-09-12 | 2024-10-07 | 16 | $5.37 | $7.95 | +48.0% | +47,912.4% | +1.8% | +46.2% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-07 | 2024-10-17 | 8 | $7.95 | $6.24 | -21.6% | -100.0% | +2.6% | -24.1% |
| Rally | 2024-10-17 | 2025-02-27 | 90 | $6.24 | $9.39 | +50.6% | +214.6% | +0.3% | +50.2% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-27 | 2025-04-08 | 28 | $9.39 | $6.86 | -27.0% | -94.1% | -15.0% | -12.0% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-10-15 | 130 | $6.86 | $13.68 | +99.6% | +281.8% | +33.9% | +65.7% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-15 | 2025-11-21 | 27 | $13.68 | $10.46 | -23.6% | -91.9% | -1.0% | -22.5% |
| Rally | 2025-11-21 | 2026-02-26 | 64 | $10.46 | $24.17 | +131.1% | +2,605.7% | +4.6% | +126.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-31 | 24 | $24.17 | $19.05 | -21.2% | -91.8% | -5.5% | -15.7% |
| Rally | 2026-03-31 | 2026-06-25 | 57 | $19.05 | $104.20 | +446.9% | +182,867.7% | +12.7% | +434.2% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-25 | 2026-07-30 | 25 | $104.20 | $29.14 | -72.0% | -100.0% | +1.1% | -73.1% |
| Rally | 2026-07-30 | 2026-10-05 | 47 | $29.14 | $55.30 | +89.8% | +3,003.2% | +4.5% | +85.3% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-10-05 | 2026-11-09 | 25 | $55.30 | $27.60 | -50.1% | -99.9% | -2.8% | -47.3% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.