Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2009-12-23 | 2010-04-07 | 69 | $16.03 | $20.30 | +26.7% | +137.2% | +5.5% | +21.2% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-07 | 2010-08-31 | 102 | $20.30 | $16.00 | -21.2% | -44.4% | -11.3% | -9.9% |
| Rally | 2010-08-31 | 2011-04-21 | 162 | $16.00 | $20.49 | +28.0% | +46.9% | +27.5% | +0.6% |
| Drawdown | 2011-04-21 | 2011-10-04 | 111 | $20.49 | $11.68 | -43.0% | -72.1% | -16.0% | -27.0% |
| Rally | 2011-10-04 | 2011-11-09 | 26 | $11.68 | $15.56 | +33.3% | +1,515.7% | +9.4% | +23.9% |
| Drawdown | 2011-11-09 | 2011-12-15 | 27 | $15.56 | $11.91 | -23.5% | -91.8% | -1.1% | -22.4% |
| Rally | 2011-12-15 | 2012-02-28 | 48 | $11.91 | $16.52 | +38.7% | +456.8% | +12.9% | +25.8% |
| Drawdown | 2012-02-28 | 2012-06-05 | 67 | $16.52 | $12.79 | -22.6% | -61.8% | -6.3% | -16.3% |
| Rally | 2012-06-05 | 2013-01-18 | 157 | $12.79 | $19.08 | +49.2% | +90.1% | +15.6% | +33.6% |
| Drawdown | 2013-01-18 | 2013-06-25 | 104 | $19.08 | $14.00 | -26.6% | -52.8% | +6.9% | -33.5% |
| Rally | 2013-06-25 | 2013-12-02 | 110 | $14.00 | $19.82 | +41.6% | +122.0% | +13.4% | +28.2% |
| Drawdown | 2013-12-02 | 2014-05-07 | 104 | $19.82 | $14.30 | -27.9% | -54.7% | +4.3% | -32.2% |
| Rally | 2014-05-07 | 2015-05-26 | 260 | $14.30 | $27.02 | +89.0% | +85.3% | +12.0% | +76.9% |
| Drawdown | 2015-05-26 | 2015-08-26 | 66 | $27.02 | $15.88 | -41.2% | -86.8% | -7.8% | -33.4% |
| Rally | 2015-08-26 | 2015-12-03 | 68 | $15.88 | $20.79 | +30.9% | +171.4% | +5.6% | +25.3% |
| Drawdown | 2015-12-03 | 2016-02-12 | 47 | $20.79 | $15.01 | -27.8% | -82.6% | -9.0% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2016-02-12 | 2018-01-23 | 481 | $15.01 | $27.95 | +86.2% | +38.5% | +52.3% | +33.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-01-23 | 2019-01-03 | 233 | $27.95 | $16.92 | -39.5% | -41.9% | -13.8% | -25.7% |
| Rally | 2019-01-03 | 2019-08-23 | 157 | $16.92 | $24.53 | +45.0% | +81.5% | +16.3% | +28.7% |
| Drawdown | 2019-08-23 | 2020-03-19 | 143 | $24.53 | $12.99 | -47.1% | -67.4% | -15.4% | -31.7% |
| Rally | 2020-03-19 | 2021-02-23 | 230 | $12.99 | $31.36 | +141.5% | +162.7% | +61.1% | +80.4% |
| Drawdown | 2021-02-23 | 2021-07-27 | 105 | $31.36 | $16.22 | -48.3% | -79.4% | +13.4% | -61.7% |
| Rally | 2021-07-27 | 2021-10-21 | 59 | $16.22 | $19.60 | +20.8% | +124.5% | +3.4% | +17.5% |
| Drawdown | 2021-10-21 | 2022-05-12 | 137 | $19.60 | $12.67 | -35.3% | -55.2% | -13.6% | -21.7% |
| Rally | 2022-05-12 | 2022-06-28 | 33 | $12.67 | $15.65 | +23.5% | +401.1% | -2.8% | +26.3% |
| Drawdown | 2022-06-28 | 2022-10-25 | 83 | $15.65 | $9.87 | -36.9% | -75.3% | +1.0% | -37.9% |
| Rally | 2022-10-25 | 2023-05-08 | 130 | $9.87 | $20.92 | +111.9% | +328.7% | +7.2% | +104.7% |
| Drawdown | 2023-05-08 | 2023-08-23 | 75 | $20.92 | $14.60 | -30.2% | -70.2% | +7.2% | -37.4% |
| Rally | 2023-08-23 | 2023-10-17 | 37 | $14.60 | $17.86 | +22.4% | +295.4% | -1.4% | +23.8% |
| Drawdown | 2023-10-17 | 2024-01-22 | 66 | $17.86 | $11.04 | -38.2% | -84.1% | +10.9% | -49.1% |
| Rally | 2024-01-22 | 2024-10-07 | 174 | $11.04 | $29.96 | +171.4% | +324.5% | +17.4% | +153.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-07 | 2025-01-13 | 67 | $29.96 | $19.75 | -34.1% | -79.2% | +2.5% | -36.6% |
| Rally | 2025-01-13 | 2025-03-18 | 44 | $19.75 | $24.31 | +23.1% | +229.0% | -3.8% | +26.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-18 | 2025-04-07 | 14 | $24.31 | $18.39 | -24.3% | -99.3% | -9.8% | -14.5% |
| Rally | 2025-04-07 | 2026-02-10 | 211 | $18.39 | $37.74 | +105.2% | +135.9% | +37.1% | +68.0% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-02-10 | 2026-11-09 | 183 | $37.74 | $27.52 | -27.1% | -35.3% | +8.8% | -35.9% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.