Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2019-11-18 | 2020-03-23 | 86 | $9,672.41 | $3,866.99 | -60.0% | -93.2% | -28.3% | -31.7% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2021-08-31 | 359 | $3,866.99 | $18,439.30 | +376.8% | +199.4% | +102.1% | +274.7% |
| Drawdown | 2021-08-31 | 2021-11-30 | 61 | $18,439.30 | $13,164.26 | -28.6% | -75.1% | +1.0% | -29.6% |
| Rally | 2021-11-30 | 2022-01-14 | 33 | $13,164.26 | $16,365.89 | +24.3% | +427.2% | +2.1% | +22.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-01-14 | 2022-07-12 | 120 | $16,365.89 | $11,508.00 | -29.7% | -52.3% | -18.1% | -11.6% |
| Rally | 2022-07-12 | 2022-08-26 | 33 | $11,508.00 | $14,903.81 | +29.5% | +620.3% | +6.3% | +23.3% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-26 | 2022-10-13 | 31 | $14,903.81 | $9,668.61 | -35.1% | -97.0% | -9.6% | -25.6% |
| Rally | 2022-10-13 | 2023-07-12 | 187 | $9,668.61 | $16,834.32 | +74.1% | +111.1% | +21.9% | +52.3% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-12 | 2023-10-06 | 58 | $16,834.32 | $11,306.49 | -32.8% | -82.3% | -3.7% | -29.2% |
| Rally | 2023-10-06 | 2024-01-03 | 60 | $11,306.49 | $18,985.79 | +67.9% | +781.9% | +9.2% | +58.7% |
| Drawdown | 2024-01-03 | 2024-02-05 | 24 | $18,985.79 | $14,825.60 | -21.9% | -92.6% | +5.1% | -27.0% |
| Rally | 2024-02-05 | 2024-07-24 | 115 | $14,825.60 | $21,831.21 | +47.3% | +133.5% | +9.8% | +37.5% |
| Drawdown | 2024-07-24 | 2024-09-09 | 33 | $21,831.21 | $16,572.10 | -24.1% | -87.8% | +0.8% | -24.9% |
| Rally | 2024-09-09 | 2024-11-14 | 43 | $16,572.10 | $29,288.16 | +76.7% | +2,714.4% | +8.7% | +68.0% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-14 | 2024-12-09 | 18 | $29,288.16 | $19,456.76 | -33.6% | -99.7% | +1.7% | -35.3% |
| Rally | 2024-12-09 | 2025-03-19 | 65 | $19,456.76 | $42,095.35 | +116.4% | +1,892.5% | -6.2% | +122.6% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-19 | 2025-04-07 | 14 | $42,095.35 | $30,039.64 | -28.6% | -99.8% | -10.8% | -17.8% |
| Rally | 2025-04-07 | 2025-06-19 | 49 | $30,039.64 | $68,348.90 | +127.5% | +6,757.9% | +18.1% | +109.4% |
| Drawdown | 2025-06-19 | 2025-08-20 | 44 | $68,348.90 | $49,069.73 | -28.2% | -85.0% | +6.9% | -35.1% |
| Rally | 2025-08-20 | 2025-10-30 | 47 | $49,069.73 | $62,769.40 | +27.9% | +274.4% | +6.7% | +21.2% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-30 | 2025-12-01 | 23 | $62,769.40 | $45,184.00 | -28.0% | -97.3% | -0.1% | -27.9% |
| Rally | 2025-12-01 | 2026-03-03 | 60 | $45,184.00 | $146,163.03 | +223.5% | +13,747.8% | +0.1% | +223.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-04 | 2 | $146,163.03 | $115,575.40 | -20.9% | -100.0% | +0.8% | -21.7% |
| Rally | 2026-03-04 | 2026-03-09 | 4 | $115,575.40 | $162,104.47 | +40.3% | +180,535,462,569.8% | -1.1% | +41.3% |
| Drawdown | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-31 | 17 | $162,104.47 | $114,100.00 | -29.6% | -99.5% | -3.9% | -25.7% |
| Rally | 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-09 | 8 | $114,100.00 | $137,100.00 | +20.2% | +32,422.4% | +4.5% | +15.6% |
| Drawdown | 2026-04-09 | 2026-06-08 | 39 | $137,100.00 | $86,500.00 | -36.9% | -94.9% | +8.5% | -45.4% |
| Rally | 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-16 | 7 | $86,500.00 | $106,400.00 | +23.0% | +172,610.5% | +1.4% | +21.6% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-16 | 2026-07-29 | 31 | $106,400.00 | $54,200.00 | -49.1% | -99.6% | -2.6% | -46.5% |
| Rally | 2026-07-29 | 2026-10-02 | 45 | $54,200.00 | $82,900.00 | +53.0% | +980.2% | +5.6% | +47.4% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-10-02 | 2026-11-06 | 24 | $82,900.00 | $50,300.00 | -39.3% | -99.5% | -4.5% | -34.8% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.