Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2023-08-18 | 2023-12-26 | 87 | $33.89 | $15.70 | -53.7% | -89.2% | +9.3% | -62.9% |
| Rally | 2023-12-26 | 2024-01-11 | 12 | $15.70 | $20.75 | +32.2% | +34,888.3% | +0.1% | +32.1% |
| Drawdown | 2024-01-11 | 2024-02-05 | 18 | $20.75 | $11.22 | -45.9% | -100.0% | +3.4% | -49.3% |
| Rally | 2024-02-05 | 2024-04-11 | 41 | $11.22 | $22.02 | +96.2% | +6,195.9% | +5.2% | +91.0% |
| Drawdown | 2024-04-11 | 2024-08-23 | 93 | $22.02 | $9.94 | -54.9% | -88.4% | +8.4% | -63.2% |
| Rally | 2024-08-23 | 2024-10-08 | 26 | $9.94 | $17.16 | +72.7% | +19,837.7% | +2.1% | +70.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-08 | 2024-10-11 | 4 | $17.16 | $13.23 | -22.9% | -100.0% | +1.1% | -24.0% |
| Rally | 2024-10-11 | 2024-11-11 | 22 | $13.23 | $18.46 | +39.5% | +4,435.7% | +3.2% | +36.3% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-11 | 2025-01-03 | 39 | $18.46 | $11.74 | -36.4% | -94.6% | -1.0% | -35.5% |
| Rally | 2025-01-03 | 2025-03-17 | 46 | $11.74 | $16.44 | +40.1% | +533.0% | -4.5% | +44.6% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-17 | 2025-04-07 | 15 | $16.44 | $11.43 | -30.5% | -99.8% | -10.8% | -19.7% |
| Rally | 2025-04-07 | 2025-08-13 | 89 | $11.43 | $41.95 | +267.2% | +3,875.3% | +27.7% | +239.4% |
| Drawdown | 2025-08-13 | 2025-09-04 | 17 | $41.95 | $30.73 | -26.8% | -99.0% | +0.5% | -27.3% |
| Rally | 2025-09-04 | 2025-09-22 | 13 | $30.73 | $37.61 | +22.4% | +4,938.5% | +2.9% | +19.5% |
| Drawdown | 2025-09-22 | 2025-10-17 | 14 | $37.61 | $29.01 | -22.9% | -99.1% | -0.4% | -22.4% |
| Rally | 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-29 | 9 | $29.01 | $37.52 | +29.3% | +134,433.8% | +3.4% | +25.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-21 | 18 | $37.52 | $29.50 | -21.4% | -96.6% | -4.2% | -17.2% |
| Rally | 2025-11-21 | 2025-12-24 | 24 | $29.50 | $39.23 | +33.0% | +1,894.8% | +5.0% | +28.0% |
| Drawdown | 2025-12-24 | 2026-02-06 | 31 | $39.23 | $28.33 | -27.8% | -92.9% | +0.0% | -27.8% |
| Rally | 2026-02-06 | 2026-06-16 | 83 | $28.33 | $169.44 | +498.1% | +22,718.7% | +8.4% | +489.7% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-16 | 2026-08-03 | 34 | $169.44 | $63.26 | -62.7% | -99.9% | +1.2% | -63.9% |
| Rally | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-17 | 11 | $63.26 | $100.89 | +59.5% | +4,404,944.8% | +1.9% | +57.6% |
| Drawdown | 2026-08-17 | 2026-08-26 | 8 | $100.89 | $80.27 | -20.4% | -99.9% | -0.9% | -19.5% |
| Rally | 2026-08-26 | 2026-09-23 | 21 | $80.27 | $112.68 | +40.4% | +5,754.7% | +0.4% | +40.0% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-09-23 | 2026-11-06 | 27 | $112.68 | $53.88 | -52.2% | -99.9% | -4.3% | -47.9% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.