Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1994-06-28 | 1996-03-14 | 66 | $1.79 | $4.78 | +167.4% | +4,173.8% | +43.7% | +123.7% |
| Drawdown | 1996-03-14 | 1996-03-18 | 3 | $4.78 | $3.73 | -22.0% | -100.0% | +1.8% | -23.8% |
| Rally | 1996-03-18 | 1997-01-20 | 182 | $3.73 | $4.75 | +27.3% | +39.6% | +19.0% | +8.3% |
| Drawdown | 1997-01-20 | 1997-12-24 | 188 | $4.75 | $1.35 | -71.6% | -81.5% | +20.1% | -91.7% |
| Rally | 1997-12-24 | 1998-02-27 | 41 | $1.35 | $2.31 | +71.8% | +2,682.5% | +12.5% | +59.3% |
| Drawdown | 1998-02-27 | 1998-09-01 | 107 | $2.31 | $1.03 | -55.4% | -85.0% | -5.2% | -50.1% |
| Rally | 1998-09-01 | 1998-12-02 | 64 | $1.03 | $1.92 | +86.2% | +1,056.4% | +17.8% | +68.4% |
| Drawdown | 1998-12-02 | 1999-04-16 | 63 | $1.92 | $1.42 | -25.9% | -69.9% | +12.6% | -38.5% |
| Rally | 1999-04-16 | 1999-05-27 | 30 | $1.42 | $1.97 | +38.8% | +1,465.9% | -2.8% | +41.6% |
| Drawdown | 1999-05-27 | 1999-12-01 | 115 | $1.97 | $1.26 | -36.2% | -62.7% | +9.1% | -45.3% |
| Rally | 1999-12-01 | 2000-02-25 | 56 | $1.26 | $1.64 | +30.5% | +231.5% | -4.6% | +35.1% |
| Drawdown | 2000-02-25 | 2000-05-29 | 63 | $1.64 | $1.24 | -24.6% | -67.6% | +3.3% | -27.9% |
| Rally | 2000-05-29 | 2000-08-17 | 58 | $1.24 | $1.53 | +23.2% | +147.8% | +8.6% | +14.7% |
| Drawdown | 2000-08-17 | 2001-04-09 | 141 | $1.53 | $1.15 | -24.5% | -39.6% | -24.0% | -0.6% |
| Rally | 2001-04-09 | 2012-08-06 | 2,702 | $1.15 | $15.32 | +1,228.4% | +27.3% | +22.6% | +1,205.9% |
| Drawdown | 2012-08-06 | 2014-10-16 | 525 | $15.32 | $12.00 | -21.7% | -11.1% | +33.6% | -55.3% |
| Rally | 2014-10-16 | 2018-07-02 | 890 | $12.00 | $33.15 | +176.3% | +33.3% | +46.4% | +129.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-07-02 | 2018-12-18 | 115 | $33.15 | $25.65 | -22.6% | -43.0% | -6.6% | -16.0% |
| Rally | 2018-12-18 | 2019-04-05 | 73 | $25.65 | $31.63 | +23.3% | +106.1% | +13.6% | +9.7% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-05 | 2020-03-16 | 233 | $31.63 | $24.07 | -23.9% | -25.6% | -17.5% | -6.4% |
| Rally | 2020-03-16 | 2020-10-13 | 142 | $24.07 | $29.34 | +21.9% | +42.1% | +47.2% | -25.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-10-13 | 2022-05-31 | 399 | $29.34 | $17.87 | -39.1% | -26.9% | +17.7% | -56.8% |
| Rally | 2022-05-31 | 2024-05-17 | 479 | $17.87 | $31.92 | +78.7% | +35.7% | +28.3% | +50.3% |
| Drawdown | 2024-05-17 | 2025-04-08 | 219 | $31.92 | $22.48 | -29.6% | -33.2% | -6.0% | -23.5% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2026-01-12 | 189 | $22.48 | $35.93 | +59.8% | +86.8% | +40.0% | +19.8% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-01-12 | 2026-11-06 | 209 | $35.93 | $22.22 | -38.2% | -44.0% | +5.7% | -43.9% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.