Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2021-11-29 | 2021-12-16 | 14 | $75,901.01 | $56,326.54 | -25.8% | -99.5% | +0.3% | -26.1% |
| Rally | 2021-12-16 | 2022-01-04 | 13 | $56,326.54 | $69,908.82 | +24.1% | +6,486.3% | +2.7% | +21.4% |
| Drawdown | 2022-01-04 | 2023-01-03 | 247 | $69,908.82 | $31,958.32 | -54.3% | -55.0% | -20.2% | -34.1% |
| Rally | 2023-01-03 | 2024-07-11 | 374 | $31,958.32 | $106,561.02 | +233.4% | +125.1% | +46.0% | +187.4% |
| Drawdown | 2024-07-11 | 2024-08-05 | 18 | $106,561.02 | $70,308.30 | -34.0% | -99.7% | -7.1% | -26.9% |
| Rally | 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-20 | 11 | $70,308.30 | $89,183.68 | +26.8% | +23,128.6% | +7.9% | +18.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-08-20 | 2024-09-09 | 15 | $89,183.68 | $70,508.04 | -20.9% | -98.1% | -2.3% | -18.7% |
| Rally | 2024-09-09 | 2024-10-25 | 29 | $70,508.04 | $95,375.61 | +35.3% | +1,280.6% | +6.2% | +29.1% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-25 | 2024-12-02 | 27 | $95,375.61 | $72,805.05 | -23.7% | -92.0% | +4.1% | -27.8% |
| Rally | 2024-12-02 | 2025-02-19 | 51 | $72,805.05 | $104,164.15 | +43.1% | +487.0% | +1.6% | +41.5% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-19 | 2025-04-09 | 35 | $104,164.15 | $75,102.05 | -27.9% | -90.5% | -11.2% | -16.7% |
| Rally | 2025-04-09 | 2025-06-25 | 51 | $75,102.05 | $191,949.66 | +155.6% | +10,220.6% | +11.6% | +143.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-06-25 | 2025-08-22 | 42 | $191,949.66 | $135,023.90 | -29.7% | -87.9% | +6.2% | -35.8% |
| Rally | 2025-08-22 | 2026-02-26 | 124 | $135,023.90 | $678,115.59 | +402.2% | +2,557.0% | +6.8% | +395.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-04 | 4 | $678,115.59 | $506,339.62 | -25.3% | -100.0% | -0.6% | -24.8% |
| Rally | 2026-03-04 | 2026-03-18 | 11 | $506,339.62 | $629,179.41 | +24.3% | +14,390.2% | -3.6% | +27.8% |
| Drawdown | 2026-03-18 | 2026-03-31 | 10 | $629,179.41 | $465,892.37 | -26.0% | -99.9% | -1.5% | -24.5% |
| Rally | 2026-03-31 | 2026-06-22 | 56 | $465,892.37 | $1,970,000.00 | +322.8% | +65,637.4% | +14.5% | +308.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-22 | 2026-07-30 | 28 | $1,970,000.00 | $799,000.00 | -59.4% | -100.0% | -0.5% | -59.0% |
| Rally | 2026-07-30 | 2026-09-23 | 39 | $799,000.00 | $1,190,000.00 | +48.9% | +1,211.7% | +3.6% | +45.3% |
| Drawdown | 2026-09-23 | 2026-10-20 | 16 | $1,190,000.00 | $741,000.00 | -37.7% | -99.9% | +0.1% | -37.8% |
| Rally | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-29 | 8 | $741,000.00 | $953,000.00 | +28.6% | +276,691.5% | +0.1% | +28.5% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-10-29 | 2026-11-06 | 7 | $953,000.00 | $724,000.00 | -24.0% | -100.0% | -4.4% | -19.6% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.