Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2004-05-11 | 2005-06-06 | 245 | $1.63 | $1.02 | -37.6% | -38.4% | +9.3% | -46.9% |
| Rally | 2005-06-06 | 2007-02-22 | 322 | $1.02 | $4.63 | +356.1% | +227.9% | +21.6% | +334.5% |
| Drawdown | 2007-02-22 | 2007-03-05 | 8 | $4.63 | $3.24 | -30.0% | -100.0% | -5.6% | -24.4% |
| Rally | 2007-03-05 | 2007-06-22 | 77 | $3.24 | $6.28 | +93.6% | +769.1% | +9.3% | +84.3% |
| Drawdown | 2007-06-22 | 2007-08-21 | 43 | $6.28 | $3.65 | -41.9% | -95.9% | -3.7% | -38.2% |
| Rally | 2007-08-21 | 2007-12-28 | 89 | $3.65 | $5.09 | +39.7% | +157.6% | +2.2% | +37.5% |
| Drawdown | 2007-12-28 | 2008-07-08 | 124 | $5.09 | $3.68 | -27.7% | -48.3% | -13.9% | -13.9% |
| Rally | 2008-07-08 | 2008-08-05 | 9 | $3.68 | $4.48 | +21.7% | +24,563.0% | +0.9% | +20.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-05 | 2009-01-29 | 59 | $4.48 | $3.23 | -27.9% | -75.3% | -34.2% | +6.3% |
| Rally | 2009-01-29 | 2010-07-22 | 359 | $3.23 | $19.63 | +507.6% | +254.9% | +29.4% | +478.2% |
| Drawdown | 2010-07-22 | 2010-12-10 | 96 | $19.63 | $12.47 | -36.5% | -69.6% | +13.4% | -49.9% |
| Rally | 2010-12-10 | 2011-01-17 | 26 | $12.47 | $17.71 | +42.0% | +2,896.8% | +4.3% | +37.8% |
| Drawdown | 2011-01-17 | 2011-09-26 | 170 | $17.71 | $8.07 | -54.5% | -68.8% | -10.1% | -44.4% |
| Rally | 2011-09-26 | 2012-03-14 | 113 | $8.07 | $14.51 | +79.8% | +270.1% | +19.9% | +59.9% |
| Drawdown | 2012-03-14 | 2013-03-20 | 250 | $14.51 | $11.07 | -23.7% | -23.9% | +11.8% | -35.5% |
| Rally | 2013-03-20 | 2013-10-21 | 148 | $11.07 | $14.41 | +30.2% | +56.8% | +11.9% | +18.3% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-21 | 2014-12-17 | 287 | $14.41 | $7.00 | -51.4% | -47.0% | +15.4% | -66.8% |
| Rally | 2014-12-17 | 2015-02-05 | 33 | $7.00 | $8.70 | +24.3% | +426.1% | +2.5% | +21.8% |
| Drawdown | 2015-02-05 | 2015-08-18 | 134 | $8.70 | $4.25 | -51.1% | -74.0% | +1.7% | -52.8% |
| Rally | 2015-08-18 | 2016-01-11 | 97 | $4.25 | $7.35 | +72.9% | +315.0% | -8.3% | +81.2% |
| Drawdown | 2016-01-11 | 2016-03-11 | 41 | $7.35 | $5.50 | -25.2% | -83.2% | +5.1% | -30.3% |
| Rally | 2016-03-11 | 2016-04-07 | 20 | $5.50 | $7.10 | +29.1% | +2,396.2% | +1.0% | +28.1% |
| Drawdown | 2016-04-07 | 2016-06-24 | 55 | $7.10 | $5.20 | -26.8% | -76.0% | -0.2% | -26.5% |
| Rally | 2016-06-24 | 2016-07-28 | 23 | $5.20 | $6.30 | +21.2% | +718.6% | +6.5% | +14.6% |
| Drawdown | 2016-07-28 | 2016-11-30 | 86 | $6.30 | $3.63 | -42.5% | -80.2% | +1.3% | -43.8% |
| Rally | 2016-11-30 | 2017-05-22 | 115 | $3.63 | $8.05 | +122.1% | +474.5% | +8.9% | +113.2% |
| Drawdown | 2017-05-22 | 2017-09-06 | 72 | $8.05 | $5.15 | -36.0% | -79.1% | +3.0% | -39.0% |
| Rally | 2017-09-06 | 2017-10-09 | 23 | $5.15 | $6.45 | +25.2% | +1,077.7% | +3.2% | +22.0% |
| Drawdown | 2017-10-09 | 2018-06-05 | 158 | $6.45 | $2.25 | -65.1% | -81.4% | +8.0% | -73.1% |
| Rally | 2018-06-05 | 2018-07-25 | 36 | $2.25 | $3.03 | +34.4% | +694.0% | +3.5% | +30.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-07-25 | 2018-10-25 | 60 | $3.03 | $1.35 | -55.4% | -96.6% | -4.9% | -50.4% |
| Rally | 2018-10-25 | 2018-11-09 | 11 | $1.35 | $2.08 | +53.7% | +1,891,234.5% | +2.8% | +50.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-11-09 | 2018-12-19 | 28 | $2.08 | $1.40 | -32.5% | -97.1% | -9.9% | -22.7% |
| Rally | 2018-12-19 | 2019-02-19 | 39 | $1.40 | $1.78 | +26.8% | +363.4% | +10.9% | +15.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-02-19 | 2019-02-28 | 8 | $1.78 | $1.40 | -21.1% | -99.9% | +0.2% | -21.3% |
| Rally | 2019-02-28 | 2019-04-04 | 26 | $1.40 | $1.88 | +33.9% | +1,597.0% | +3.4% | +30.5% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-04 | 2019-10-09 | 124 | $1.88 | $0.90 | -52.0% | -77.5% | +1.4% | -53.4% |
| Rally | 2019-10-09 | 2020-01-22 | 73 | $0.90 | $2.68 | +197.2% | +4,196.4% | +13.8% | +183.4% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-22 | 2020-01-31 | 7 | $2.68 | $1.95 | -27.1% | -100.0% | -2.9% | -24.2% |
| Rally | 2020-01-31 | 2020-02-07 | 6 | $1.95 | $2.60 | +33.3% | +17,677,648.0% | +3.2% | +30.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-07 | 2020-03-19 | 30 | $2.60 | $0.88 | -66.3% | -100.0% | -27.6% | -38.7% |
| Rally | 2020-03-19 | 2020-05-05 | 33 | $0.88 | $1.75 | +100.0% | +19,796.4% | +19.1% | +80.9% |
| Drawdown | 2020-05-05 | 2020-11-02 | 120 | $1.75 | $1.03 | -41.4% | -67.5% | +15.4% | -56.8% |
| Rally | 2020-11-02 | 2020-12-30 | 42 | $1.03 | $1.65 | +61.0% | +1,640.0% | +12.7% | +48.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-12-30 | 2021-01-11 | 8 | $1.65 | $1.23 | -25.8% | -100.0% | +1.8% | -27.6% |
| Rally | 2021-01-11 | 2021-03-10 | 40 | $1.23 | $1.58 | +28.6% | +387.1% | +2.6% | +26.0% |
| Drawdown | 2021-03-10 | 2022-03-16 | 249 | $1.58 | $0.85 | -46.0% | -46.4% | +11.8% | -57.8% |
| Rally | 2022-03-16 | 2022-04-12 | 20 | $0.85 | $1.25 | +47.1% | +12,794.0% | +0.9% | +46.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-12 | 2022-10-07 | 118 | $1.25 | $0.75 | -40.0% | -66.4% | -17.2% | -22.8% |
| Rally | 2022-10-07 | 2023-02-07 | 78 | $0.75 | $1.28 | +70.0% | +455.3% | +14.4% | +55.6% |
| Drawdown | 2023-02-07 | 2024-06-06 | 326 | $1.28 | $0.65 | -49.0% | -40.6% | +28.6% | -77.6% |
| Rally | 2024-06-06 | 2024-06-21 | 11 | $0.65 | $0.80 | +23.1% | +11,537.6% | +2.1% | +21.0% |
| Drawdown | 2024-06-21 | 2024-12-04 | 116 | $0.80 | $0.48 | -40.6% | -67.8% | +11.4% | -52.0% |
| Rally | 2024-12-04 | 2025-01-03 | 21 | $0.48 | $0.63 | +31.6% | +2,593.0% | -2.4% | +33.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-01-03 | 2025-08-22 | 156 | $0.63 | $0.38 | -40.0% | -56.2% | +8.8% | -48.8% |
| Rally | 2025-08-22 | 2025-11-26 | 63 | $0.38 | $0.50 | +33.3% | +216.0% | +5.3% | +28.0% |
| Drawdown | 2025-11-26 | 2026-08-11 | 181 | $0.50 | $0.28 | -44.0% | -55.4% | +13.4% | -57.4% |
| Rally | 2026-08-11 | 2026-09-10 | 23 | $0.28 | $0.36 | +28.6% | +1,469.8% | -1.8% | +30.3% |
| Drawdown | 2026-09-10 | 2026-10-22 | 31 | $0.36 | $0.27 | -26.4% | -91.7% | +0.9% | -27.3% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-10-22 | 2026-11-06 | 12 | $0.27 | $0.27 | +1.9% | +48.1% | -3.7% | +5.6% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.