Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 1997-05-19 | 1997-07-10 | 39 | $0.97 | $0.59 | -38.5% | -95.7% | +9.7% | -48.2% |
| Rally | 1997-07-10 | 1998-06-22 | 248 | $0.59 | $0.85 | +42.3% | +43.1% | +20.7% | +21.6% |
| Drawdown | 1998-06-22 | 1998-08-18 | 42 | $0.85 | $0.52 | -38.8% | -94.8% | -0.2% | -38.7% |
| Rally | 1998-08-18 | 1998-10-05 | 35 | $0.52 | $0.75 | +45.5% | +1,386.5% | -10.2% | +55.7% |
| Drawdown | 1998-10-05 | 1999-05-17 | 161 | $0.75 | $0.58 | -23.5% | -34.3% | +35.5% | -59.0% |
| Rally | 1999-05-17 | 1999-11-22 | 136 | $0.58 | $0.90 | +57.2% | +131.1% | +6.1% | +51.1% |
| Drawdown | 1999-11-22 | 1999-12-29 | 28 | $0.90 | $0.71 | -21.5% | -88.7% | +3.0% | -24.5% |
| Rally | 1999-12-29 | 2001-06-27 | 391 | $0.71 | $2.17 | +205.2% | +105.2% | -17.2% | +222.4% |
| Drawdown | 2001-06-27 | 2001-11-16 | 103 | $2.17 | $1.39 | -35.8% | -66.2% | -6.0% | -29.8% |
| Rally | 2001-11-16 | 2001-12-10 | 17 | $1.39 | $1.76 | +26.6% | +3,209.8% | +0.1% | +26.5% |
| Drawdown | 2001-12-10 | 2002-01-28 | 36 | $1.76 | $1.03 | -41.8% | -97.7% | -0.6% | -41.2% |
| Rally | 2002-01-28 | 2002-03-20 | 38 | $1.03 | $1.63 | +59.3% | +2,094.2% | +1.7% | +57.7% |
| Drawdown | 2002-03-20 | 2002-06-06 | 57 | $1.63 | $1.25 | -23.2% | -68.8% | -10.7% | -12.5% |
| Rally | 2002-06-06 | 2002-07-15 | 28 | $1.25 | $1.63 | +29.6% | +934.0% | -10.8% | +40.4% |
| Drawdown | 2002-07-15 | 2003-11-07 | 345 | $1.63 | $0.74 | -54.7% | -44.0% | +14.7% | -69.5% |
| Rally | 2003-11-07 | 2004-04-05 | 107 | $0.74 | $1.03 | +39.8% | +120.2% | +9.2% | +30.6% |
| Drawdown | 2004-04-05 | 2004-08-19 | 99 | $1.03 | $0.64 | -38.3% | -70.8% | -5.2% | -33.2% |
| Rally | 2004-08-19 | 2004-09-23 | 26 | $0.64 | $0.90 | +41.2% | +2,731.1% | +1.6% | +39.6% |
| Drawdown | 2004-09-23 | 2005-07-18 | 213 | $0.90 | $0.40 | -55.8% | -61.9% | +10.2% | -65.9% |
| Rally | 2005-07-18 | 2005-09-19 | 46 | $0.40 | $0.55 | +37.8% | +478.3% | +0.8% | +37.0% |
| Drawdown | 2005-09-19 | 2005-11-01 | 32 | $0.55 | $0.43 | -21.2% | -84.7% | -2.3% | -18.9% |
| Rally | 2005-11-01 | 2006-08-01 | 182 | $0.43 | $1.71 | +297.9% | +576.8% | +5.7% | +292.2% |
| Drawdown | 2006-08-01 | 2006-08-07 | 5 | $1.71 | $1.36 | -20.8% | -100.0% | +0.4% | -21.2% |
| Rally | 2006-08-07 | 2006-10-10 | 42 | $1.36 | $1.93 | +42.5% | +739.0% | +6.1% | +36.5% |
| Drawdown | 2006-10-10 | 2006-11-20 | 30 | $1.93 | $1.53 | -20.6% | -85.6% | +3.5% | -24.1% |
| Rally | 2006-11-20 | 2007-05-24 | 123 | $1.53 | $5.63 | +267.0% | +1,335.4% | +7.6% | +259.4% |
| Drawdown | 2007-05-24 | 2007-07-05 | 31 | $5.63 | $2.65 | -52.9% | -99.8% | +1.2% | -54.1% |
| Rally | 2007-07-05 | 2007-09-19 | 55 | $2.65 | $5.39 | +103.4% | +2,485.1% | +0.2% | +103.1% |
| Drawdown | 2007-09-19 | 2007-10-25 | 22 | $5.39 | $3.97 | -26.4% | -97.0% | -1.0% | -25.4% |
| Rally | 2007-10-25 | 2008-01-14 | 56 | $3.97 | $8.34 | +110.0% | +2,720.3% | -6.5% | +116.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-01-14 | 2008-02-01 | 15 | $8.34 | $5.34 | -36.0% | -99.9% | -1.5% | -34.5% |
| Rally | 2008-02-01 | 2008-03-07 | 21 | $5.34 | $7.07 | +32.4% | +2,803.0% | -7.3% | +39.7% |
| Drawdown | 2008-03-07 | 2008-04-18 | 30 | $7.07 | $3.64 | -48.5% | -99.6% | +7.5% | -56.0% |
| Rally | 2008-04-18 | 2008-05-14 | 17 | $3.64 | $4.80 | +31.9% | +5,933.7% | +1.3% | +30.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-05-14 | 2008-06-23 | 28 | $4.80 | $2.83 | -41.0% | -99.1% | -6.4% | -34.6% |
| Rally | 2008-06-23 | 2008-07-09 | 13 | $2.83 | $3.69 | +30.2% | +16,681.7% | -5.6% | +35.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-07-09 | 2008-09-18 | 51 | $3.69 | $2.21 | -40.0% | -92.0% | -3.1% | -36.9% |
| Rally | 2008-09-18 | 2008-09-24 | 5 | $2.21 | $2.78 | +25.5% | +9,519,846.6% | -1.7% | +27.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-24 | 2008-11-04 | 25 | $2.78 | $1.58 | -43.0% | -99.7% | -15.2% | -27.9% |
| Rally | 2008-11-04 | 2009-02-11 | 65 | $1.58 | $3.07 | +94.0% | +1,205.1% | -17.1% | +111.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-11 | 2009-02-27 | 13 | $3.07 | $2.44 | -20.3% | -98.8% | -11.8% | -8.5% |
| Rally | 2009-02-27 | 2009-08-11 | 114 | $2.44 | $5.22 | +113.4% | +434.1% | +35.3% | +78.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-08-11 | 2009-08-19 | 7 | $5.22 | $4.07 | -21.9% | -100.0% | +0.2% | -22.1% |
| Rally | 2009-08-19 | 2010-03-24 | 144 | $4.07 | $7.63 | +87.3% | +199.9% | +17.2% | +70.1% |
| Drawdown | 2010-03-24 | 2010-05-17 | 37 | $7.63 | $5.14 | -32.7% | -93.2% | -2.6% | -30.0% |
| Rally | 2010-05-17 | 2010-11-25 | 129 | $5.14 | $9.31 | +81.3% | +219.6% | +5.4% | +75.8% |
| Drawdown | 2010-11-25 | 2011-01-25 | 43 | $9.31 | $6.47 | -30.5% | -88.2% | +7.7% | -38.3% |
| Rally | 2011-01-25 | 2011-03-14 | 30 | $6.47 | $8.03 | +24.1% | +512.6% | +0.4% | +23.7% |
| Drawdown | 2011-03-14 | 2012-01-05 | 202 | $8.03 | $3.05 | -62.1% | -70.2% | -1.2% | -60.9% |
| Rally | 2012-01-05 | 2012-03-19 | 48 | $3.05 | $4.44 | +45.9% | +626.6% | +10.0% | +35.9% |
| Drawdown | 2012-03-19 | 2012-07-16 | 80 | $4.44 | $2.44 | -45.1% | -84.9% | -4.0% | -41.1% |
| Rally | 2012-07-16 | 2012-08-10 | 20 | $2.44 | $3.38 | +38.5% | +5,976.1% | +3.9% | +34.7% |
| Drawdown | 2012-08-10 | 2012-11-29 | 75 | $3.38 | $2.22 | -34.3% | -75.7% | +0.7% | -35.0% |
| Rally | 2012-11-29 | 2013-03-07 | 63 | $2.22 | $3.47 | +56.6% | +500.9% | +9.1% | +47.5% |
| Drawdown | 2013-03-07 | 2013-04-26 | 35 | $3.47 | $2.75 | -20.9% | -81.5% | +2.5% | -23.3% |
| Rally | 2013-04-26 | 2013-05-30 | 22 | $2.75 | $3.62 | +31.8% | +2,267.1% | +4.6% | +27.3% |
| Drawdown | 2013-05-30 | 2013-07-08 | 25 | $3.62 | $2.59 | -28.6% | -96.6% | -0.8% | -27.7% |
| Rally | 2013-07-08 | 2013-09-10 | 47 | $2.59 | $4.24 | +63.9% | +1,314.6% | +2.7% | +61.3% |
| Drawdown | 2013-09-10 | 2013-11-13 | 40 | $4.24 | $3.02 | -28.8% | -88.2% | +5.8% | -34.6% |
| Rally | 2013-11-13 | 2013-12-11 | 21 | $3.02 | $3.96 | +31.1% | +2,478.6% | +0.0% | +31.1% |
| Drawdown | 2013-12-11 | 2014-01-20 | 28 | $3.96 | $3.14 | -20.7% | -87.6% | +3.2% | -23.9% |
| Rally | 2014-01-20 | 2014-12-16 | 222 | $3.14 | $16.55 | +426.9% | +559.5% | +7.3% | +419.6% |
| Drawdown | 2014-12-16 | 2015-02-02 | 33 | $16.55 | $11.84 | -28.5% | -92.3% | +2.4% | -30.9% |
| Rally | 2015-02-02 | 2015-07-17 | 112 | $11.84 | $22.49 | +90.1% | +324.1% | +5.2% | +84.8% |
| Drawdown | 2015-07-17 | 2015-08-03 | 12 | $22.49 | $11.59 | -48.5% | -100.0% | -1.3% | -47.1% |
| Rally | 2015-08-03 | 2015-08-17 | 11 | $11.59 | $15.61 | +34.8% | +92,709.9% | +0.2% | +34.5% |
| Drawdown | 2015-08-17 | 2015-09-15 | 20 | $15.61 | $7.14 | -54.2% | -100.0% | -5.9% | -48.3% |
| Rally | 2015-09-15 | 2015-12-17 | 63 | $7.14 | $17.59 | +146.3% | +3,579.9% | +3.2% | +143.1% |
| Drawdown | 2015-12-17 | 2016-02-29 | 47 | $17.59 | $9.17 | -47.9% | -97.0% | -5.4% | -42.5% |
| Rally | 2016-02-29 | 2016-03-23 | 18 | $9.17 | $12.19 | +33.0% | +5,336.2% | +5.4% | +27.6% |
| Drawdown | 2016-03-23 | 2018-10-18 | 628 | $12.19 | $4.14 | -66.0% | -35.1% | +35.9% | -102.0% |
| Rally | 2018-10-18 | 2018-11-19 | 23 | $4.14 | $6.69 | +61.3% | +18,762.1% | -2.8% | +64.1% |
| Drawdown | 2018-11-19 | 2018-12-27 | 29 | $6.69 | $5.27 | -21.1% | -87.3% | -7.5% | -13.6% |
| Rally | 2018-12-27 | 2019-04-12 | 69 | $5.27 | $9.67 | +83.4% | +815.3% | +16.8% | +66.5% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-12 | 2019-05-17 | 21 | $9.67 | $7.27 | -24.8% | -96.7% | -1.6% | -23.1% |
| Rally | 2019-05-17 | 2019-06-20 | 24 | $7.27 | $8.97 | +23.3% | +802.0% | +3.3% | +20.0% |
| Drawdown | 2019-06-20 | 2019-12-12 | 120 | $8.97 | $6.91 | -22.9% | -42.1% | +7.3% | -30.1% |
| Rally | 2019-12-12 | 2020-01-02 | 15 | $6.91 | $9.34 | +35.1% | +15,577.1% | +2.8% | +32.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-02 | 2020-04-27 | 76 | $9.34 | $7.10 | -24.0% | -59.7% | -11.6% | -12.3% |
| Rally | 2020-04-27 | 2020-07-10 | 50 | $7.10 | $10.75 | +51.4% | +708.1% | +10.7% | +40.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-07-10 | 2021-07-30 | 259 | $10.75 | $7.16 | -33.5% | -32.7% | +38.0% | -71.5% |
| Rally | 2021-07-30 | 2021-09-07 | 28 | $7.16 | $9.42 | +31.7% | +1,089.6% | +2.8% | +28.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-09-07 | 2022-10-31 | 275 | $9.42 | $5.68 | -39.7% | -37.1% | -14.3% | -25.4% |
| Rally | 2022-10-31 | 2023-08-04 | 188 | $5.68 | $8.27 | +45.7% | +65.6% | +15.7% | +30.0% |
| Drawdown | 2023-08-04 | 2024-07-08 | 223 | $8.27 | $5.38 | -34.9% | -38.5% | +24.4% | -59.4% |
| Rally | 2024-07-08 | 2024-10-08 | 60 | $5.38 | $8.98 | +66.9% | +760.0% | +3.2% | +63.7% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-08 | 2025-04-07 | 122 | $8.98 | $6.42 | -28.5% | -50.0% | -12.0% | -16.5% |
| Rally | 2025-04-07 | 2025-08-26 | 98 | $6.42 | $8.69 | +35.4% | +117.8% | +27.7% | +7.6% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2025-08-26 | 2026-11-09 | 290 | $8.69 | $6.17 | -29.0% | -25.7% | +16.8% | -45.8% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.