Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2003-12-24 | 2004-04-08 | 77 | $0.22 | $0.29 | +35.0% | +166.9% | +4.1% | +30.8% |
| Drawdown | 2004-04-08 | 2004-09-13 | 113 | $0.29 | $0.13 | -55.4% | -83.5% | -1.2% | -54.3% |
| Rally | 2004-09-13 | 2004-09-21 | 7 | $0.13 | $0.18 | +33.9% | +3,709,686.2% | +0.3% | +33.6% |
| Drawdown | 2004-09-21 | 2004-10-21 | 23 | $0.18 | $0.13 | -24.0% | -95.0% | -2.0% | -22.0% |
| Rally | 2004-10-21 | 2004-11-22 | 23 | $0.13 | $0.16 | +20.4% | +665.9% | +6.4% | +14.0% |
| Drawdown | 2004-11-22 | 2005-02-01 | 52 | $0.16 | $0.12 | -27.6% | -79.1% | +1.0% | -28.7% |
| Rally | 2005-02-01 | 2005-04-21 | 58 | $0.12 | $0.14 | +23.8% | +152.6% | -2.5% | +26.2% |
| Drawdown | 2005-04-21 | 2005-05-23 | 23 | $0.14 | $0.11 | -21.2% | -92.7% | +2.9% | -24.1% |
| Rally | 2005-05-23 | 2005-09-21 | 88 | $0.11 | $0.35 | +208.0% | +2,407.2% | +1.4% | +206.7% |
| Drawdown | 2005-09-21 | 2005-11-01 | 30 | $0.35 | $0.23 | -34.3% | -97.1% | -0.6% | -33.7% |
| Rally | 2005-11-01 | 2007-05-29 | 381 | $0.23 | $2.07 | +804.7% | +329.2% | +26.2% | +778.5% |
| Drawdown | 2007-05-29 | 2007-06-04 | 5 | $2.07 | $1.51 | -27.1% | -100.0% | +1.4% | -28.5% |
| Rally | 2007-06-04 | 2007-06-18 | 11 | $1.51 | $1.91 | +26.3% | +20,993.0% | -0.5% | +26.8% |
| Drawdown | 2007-06-18 | 2007-07-05 | 14 | $1.91 | $1.33 | -30.2% | -99.8% | -0.4% | -29.9% |
| Rally | 2007-07-05 | 2007-09-03 | 43 | $1.33 | $3.34 | +150.5% | +21,642.4% | -3.4% | +153.9% |
| Drawdown | 2007-09-03 | 2007-11-28 | 58 | $3.34 | $2.35 | -29.4% | -78.0% | -0.3% | -29.1% |
| Rally | 2007-11-28 | 2008-02-19 | 53 | $2.35 | $3.30 | +40.0% | +396.0% | -8.2% | +48.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-02-19 | 2008-04-21 | 44 | $3.30 | $1.75 | -46.9% | -97.3% | +2.9% | -49.9% |
| Rally | 2008-04-21 | 2008-05-16 | 18 | $1.75 | $2.65 | +51.7% | +34,010.3% | +2.7% | +49.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-05-16 | 2008-06-17 | 22 | $2.65 | $1.83 | -31.0% | -98.6% | -5.2% | -25.8% |
| Rally | 2008-06-17 | 2008-06-26 | 8 | $1.83 | $2.24 | +22.1% | +54,179.6% | -5.0% | +27.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-06-26 | 2008-11-07 | 91 | $2.24 | $1.04 | -53.4% | -87.9% | -27.4% | -26.0% |
| Rally | 2008-11-07 | 2009-07-20 | 171 | $1.04 | $3.09 | +196.3% | +395.7% | +2.2% | +194.2% |
| Drawdown | 2009-07-20 | 2009-08-19 | 23 | $3.09 | $2.35 | -24.0% | -95.0% | +4.8% | -28.7% |
| Rally | 2009-08-19 | 2010-04-23 | 165 | $2.35 | $6.11 | +160.2% | +330.7% | +22.2% | +138.0% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-23 | 2010-07-08 | 52 | $6.11 | $3.91 | -36.1% | -88.6% | -12.1% | -24.0% |
| Rally | 2010-07-08 | 2010-11-24 | 92 | $3.91 | $7.01 | +79.4% | +396.0% | +12.0% | +67.5% |
| Drawdown | 2010-11-24 | 2011-06-20 | 139 | $7.01 | $3.99 | -43.0% | -63.9% | +6.7% | -49.7% |
| Rally | 2011-06-20 | 2011-08-12 | 40 | $3.99 | $5.03 | +26.1% | +330.2% | -7.8% | +33.8% |
| Drawdown | 2011-08-12 | 2012-01-16 | 104 | $5.03 | $3.18 | -36.8% | -67.1% | +9.4% | -46.2% |
| Rally | 2012-01-16 | 2012-05-09 | 73 | $3.18 | $4.53 | +42.5% | +239.8% | +5.1% | +37.4% |
| Drawdown | 2012-05-09 | 2012-11-28 | 140 | $4.53 | $2.97 | -34.5% | -53.3% | +4.1% | -38.6% |
| Rally | 2012-11-28 | 2013-02-01 | 45 | $2.97 | $4.30 | +44.9% | +697.2% | +7.3% | +37.6% |
| Drawdown | 2013-02-01 | 2013-04-12 | 44 | $4.30 | $3.35 | -22.0% | -75.9% | +5.0% | -27.0% |
| Rally | 2013-04-12 | 2013-10-09 | 116 | $3.35 | $6.94 | +106.8% | +384.9% | +4.3% | +102.6% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-09 | 2014-01-20 | 73 | $6.94 | $5.44 | -21.6% | -56.8% | +11.0% | -32.6% |
| Rally | 2014-01-20 | 2014-12-17 | 223 | $5.44 | $20.77 | +281.9% | +354.6% | +9.5% | +272.4% |
| Drawdown | 2014-12-17 | 2015-01-05 | 12 | $20.77 | $16.31 | -21.4% | -99.4% | +0.4% | -21.8% |
| Rally | 2015-01-05 | 2015-04-09 | 63 | $16.31 | $44.64 | +173.7% | +5,508.5% | +3.5% | +170.2% |
| Drawdown | 2015-04-09 | 2015-04-28 | 14 | $44.64 | $34.40 | -22.9% | -99.1% | +1.1% | -24.1% |
| Rally | 2015-04-28 | 2015-06-11 | 32 | $34.40 | $54.62 | +58.8% | +3,710.2% | -0.3% | +59.0% |
| Drawdown | 2015-06-11 | 2015-07-10 | 21 | $54.62 | $23.18 | -57.6% | -100.0% | -1.5% | -56.0% |
| Rally | 2015-07-10 | 2015-07-23 | 10 | $23.18 | $28.75 | +24.0% | +22,666.1% | +1.2% | +22.8% |
| Drawdown | 2015-07-23 | 2015-08-03 | 8 | $28.75 | $18.85 | -34.4% | -100.0% | -0.2% | -34.2% |
| Rally | 2015-08-03 | 2015-08-11 | 7 | $18.85 | $23.58 | +25.1% | +313,735.8% | -0.7% | +25.7% |
| Drawdown | 2015-08-11 | 2015-09-15 | 24 | $23.58 | $12.08 | -48.8% | -99.9% | -5.1% | -43.7% |
| Rally | 2015-09-15 | 2015-11-10 | 36 | $12.08 | $24.78 | +105.2% | +15,230.2% | +5.2% | +100.0% |
| Drawdown | 2015-11-10 | 2016-02-29 | 74 | $24.78 | $10.97 | -55.7% | -93.8% | -7.2% | -48.5% |
| Rally | 2016-02-29 | 2016-06-07 | 70 | $10.97 | $22.18 | +102.1% | +1,159.4% | +9.3% | +92.8% |
| Drawdown | 2016-06-07 | 2017-05-23 | 233 | $22.18 | $11.45 | -48.4% | -51.1% | +13.6% | -61.9% |
| Rally | 2017-05-23 | 2017-11-13 | 118 | $11.45 | $18.25 | +59.4% | +170.8% | +7.8% | +51.7% |
| Drawdown | 2017-11-13 | 2017-12-05 | 17 | $18.25 | $13.96 | -23.5% | -98.1% | +1.7% | -25.3% |
| Rally | 2017-12-05 | 2018-04-16 | 87 | $13.96 | $21.38 | +53.2% | +243.8% | +1.8% | +51.3% |
| Drawdown | 2018-04-16 | 2018-08-08 | 80 | $21.38 | $14.80 | -30.8% | -68.6% | +6.7% | -37.5% |
| Rally | 2018-08-08 | 2018-09-04 | 20 | $14.80 | $18.03 | +21.8% | +1,103.9% | +1.4% | +20.5% |
| Drawdown | 2018-09-04 | 2018-10-29 | 34 | $18.03 | $14.41 | -20.1% | -81.0% | -8.8% | -11.3% |
| Rally | 2018-10-29 | 2019-04-03 | 106 | $14.41 | $31.92 | +121.5% | +562.4% | +8.8% | +112.7% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-03 | 2019-05-06 | 18 | $31.92 | $23.84 | -25.3% | -98.3% | +2.1% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 2019-05-06 | 2020-02-20 | 195 | $23.84 | $43.72 | +83.3% | +118.9% | +15.0% | +68.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-20 | 2020-03-23 | 23 | $43.72 | $34.95 | -20.0% | -91.4% | -33.7% | +13.6% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2020-07-08 | 72 | $34.95 | $65.70 | +88.0% | +810.8% | +41.7% | +46.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-07-08 | 2020-11-26 | 96 | $65.70 | $46.57 | -29.1% | -59.5% | +14.5% | -43.6% |
| Rally | 2020-11-26 | 2021-01-05 | 28 | $46.57 | $59.76 | +28.3% | +844.2% | +2.7% | +25.7% |
| Drawdown | 2021-01-05 | 2021-04-13 | 65 | $59.76 | $44.21 | -26.0% | -68.9% | +11.1% | -37.2% |
| Rally | 2021-04-13 | 2021-05-25 | 28 | $44.21 | $53.71 | +21.5% | +476.4% | +1.1% | +20.4% |
| Drawdown | 2021-05-25 | 2021-09-02 | 72 | $53.71 | $37.52 | -30.1% | -71.5% | +8.3% | -38.5% |
| Rally | 2021-09-02 | 2021-12-21 | 72 | $37.52 | $49.06 | +30.8% | +155.7% | +2.5% | +28.3% |
| Drawdown | 2021-12-21 | 2022-04-26 | 83 | $49.06 | $24.50 | -50.1% | -87.9% | -10.2% | -39.9% |
| Rally | 2022-04-26 | 2023-04-03 | 229 | $24.50 | $57.40 | +134.3% | +155.2% | -1.2% | +135.5% |
| Drawdown | 2023-04-03 | 2023-06-12 | 47 | $57.40 | $40.59 | -29.3% | -84.4% | +5.2% | -34.5% |
| Rally | 2023-06-12 | 2023-06-20 | 7 | $40.59 | $50.81 | +25.2% | +323,900.7% | +1.1% | +24.0% |
| Drawdown | 2023-06-20 | 2024-02-05 | 156 | $50.81 | $19.30 | -62.0% | -79.1% | +12.6% | -74.6% |
| Rally | 2024-02-05 | 2024-03-21 | 28 | $19.30 | $25.43 | +31.8% | +1,097.0% | +6.0% | +25.7% |
| Drawdown | 2024-03-21 | 2024-08-27 | 108 | $25.43 | $15.34 | -39.7% | -69.3% | +7.3% | -47.0% |
| Rally | 2024-08-27 | 2024-11-11 | 48 | $15.34 | $34.43 | +124.4% | +6,871.7% | +6.7% | +117.8% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-11 | 2025-01-10 | 44 | $34.43 | $24.90 | -27.7% | -84.4% | -2.9% | -24.8% |
| Rally | 2025-01-10 | 2025-02-21 | 25 | $24.90 | $35.08 | +40.9% | +3,066.0% | +3.2% | +37.7% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-21 | 2025-04-08 | 32 | $35.08 | $24.25 | -30.9% | -94.5% | -17.1% | -13.7% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-08-25 | 96 | $24.25 | $39.04 | +61.0% | +249.0% | +29.2% | +31.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-08-25 | 2025-12-03 | 67 | $39.04 | $28.29 | -27.5% | -70.2% | +6.4% | -33.9% |
| Rally | 2025-12-03 | 2026-01-14 | 29 | $28.29 | $35.13 | +24.2% | +556.5% | +1.1% | +23.1% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-01-14 | 2026-11-09 | 197 | $35.13 | $21.21 | -39.6% | -47.6% | +9.1% | -48.7% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.