Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2009-07-30 | 2010-12-30 | 347 | $3.16 | $1.56 | -50.6% | -40.1% | +27.5% | -78.1% |
| Rally | 2010-12-30 | 2011-07-04 | 123 | $1.56 | $1.90 | +21.4% | +48.9% | +6.5% | +14.9% |
| Drawdown | 2011-07-04 | 2012-01-04 | 125 | $1.90 | $1.34 | -29.6% | -50.6% | -4.7% | -24.9% |
| Rally | 2012-01-04 | 2013-02-18 | 270 | $1.34 | $1.98 | +48.3% | +44.4% | +19.0% | +29.3% |
| Drawdown | 2013-02-18 | 2014-03-11 | 256 | $1.98 | $1.34 | -32.1% | -31.7% | +22.9% | -55.0% |
| Rally | 2014-03-11 | 2015-01-05 | 203 | $1.34 | $3.81 | +183.3% | +264.3% | +8.2% | +175.2% |
| Drawdown | 2015-01-05 | 2015-02-06 | 25 | $3.81 | $2.87 | -24.7% | -94.2% | +1.7% | -26.4% |
| Rally | 2015-02-06 | 2015-05-04 | 55 | $2.87 | $6.22 | +116.8% | +3,366.8% | +2.9% | +113.9% |
| Drawdown | 2015-05-04 | 2015-07-03 | 44 | $6.22 | $3.58 | -42.4% | -95.8% | -1.8% | -40.6% |
| Rally | 2015-07-03 | 2015-07-13 | 7 | $3.58 | $4.61 | +28.6% | +859,488.2% | +1.1% | +27.5% |
| Drawdown | 2015-07-13 | 2015-08-26 | 33 | $4.61 | $2.65 | -42.4% | -98.5% | -7.6% | -34.9% |
| Rally | 2015-08-26 | 2015-11-10 | 48 | $2.65 | $3.76 | +41.8% | +526.4% | +7.3% | +34.6% |
| Drawdown | 2015-11-10 | 2016-01-28 | 57 | $3.76 | $2.62 | -30.3% | -79.8% | -9.0% | -21.3% |
| Rally | 2016-01-28 | 2016-11-29 | 203 | $2.62 | $6.12 | +133.5% | +186.5% | +16.4% | +117.0% |
| Drawdown | 2016-11-29 | 2017-01-13 | 33 | $6.12 | $4.69 | -23.4% | -87.0% | +3.2% | -26.6% |
| Rally | 2017-01-13 | 2017-07-21 | 126 | $4.69 | $6.01 | +28.2% | +64.3% | +8.7% | +19.5% |
| Drawdown | 2017-07-21 | 2018-10-18 | 303 | $6.01 | $4.06 | -32.5% | -27.9% | +12.0% | -44.5% |
| Rally | 2018-10-18 | 2019-04-16 | 121 | $4.06 | $5.46 | +34.7% | +85.9% | +5.0% | +29.7% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-16 | 2019-11-15 | 142 | $5.46 | $4.17 | -23.7% | -38.2% | +7.3% | -31.1% |
| Rally | 2019-11-15 | 2020-01-06 | 36 | $4.17 | $5.13 | +23.0% | +326.7% | +4.0% | +19.0% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-06 | 2021-07-29 | 380 | $5.13 | $4.05 | -21.0% | -14.5% | +36.1% | -57.1% |
| Rally | 2021-07-29 | 2022-04-29 | 182 | $4.05 | $5.74 | +41.8% | +62.1% | -6.5% | +48.3% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-29 | 2022-11-03 | 125 | $5.74 | $4.54 | -20.9% | -37.7% | -10.0% | -11.0% |
| Rally | 2022-11-03 | 2023-05-08 | 123 | $4.54 | $6.78 | +49.4% | +127.5% | +11.2% | +38.1% |
| Drawdown | 2023-05-08 | 2024-01-23 | 178 | $6.78 | $4.61 | -32.0% | -42.1% | +17.6% | -49.6% |
| Rally | 2024-01-23 | 2024-11-07 | 189 | $4.61 | $6.54 | +41.9% | +59.4% | +22.8% | +19.1% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-07 | 2025-04-07 | 100 | $6.54 | $5.08 | -22.3% | -47.1% | -15.2% | -7.1% |
| Rally | 2025-04-07 | 2025-07-14 | 67 | $5.08 | $6.13 | +20.7% | +102.7% | +23.8% | -3.2% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2025-07-14 | 2026-11-06 | 320 | $6.13 | $4.71 | -23.2% | -18.7% | +17.7% | -40.8% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.