Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1999-06-25 | 1999-07-06 | 8 | $0.05 | $0.07 | +38.9% | +5.5% | +33.3% |
| Drawdown | 1999-07-06 | 1999-12-03 | 90 | $0.07 | $0.05 | -29.0% | +3.3% | -32.2% |
| Rally | 1999-12-03 | 2000-02-23 | 50 | $0.05 | $0.11 | +114.5% | -5.1% | +119.5% |
| Drawdown | 2000-02-23 | 2000-03-02 | 7 | $0.11 | $0.08 | -28.9% | +1.5% | -30.4% |
| Rally | 2000-03-02 | 2000-03-29 | 19 | $0.08 | $0.10 | +32.5% | +9.2% | +23.3% |
| Drawdown | 2000-03-29 | 2000-07-05 | 63 | $0.10 | $0.07 | -31.7% | -4.1% | -27.5% |
| Rally | 2000-07-05 | 2000-07-13 | 6 | $0.07 | $0.09 | +24.4% | +3.4% | +21.0% |
| Drawdown | 2000-07-13 | 2000-10-10 | 46 | $0.09 | $0.06 | -33.0% | -7.3% | -25.7% |
| Rally | 2000-10-10 | 2000-10-24 | 10 | $0.06 | $0.07 | +23.1% | +0.8% | +22.3% |
| Drawdown | 2000-10-24 | 2001-03-12 | 58 | $0.07 | $0.03 | -58.0% | -15.6% | -42.5% |
| Rally | 2001-03-12 | 2001-03-27 | 11 | $0.03 | $0.05 | +53.0% | +0.2% | +52.8% |
| Drawdown | 2001-03-27 | 2001-04-25 | 16 | $0.05 | $0.03 | -25.1% | +3.9% | -29.0% |
| Rally | 2001-04-25 | 2001-08-30 | 76 | $0.03 | $0.06 | +79.4% | -8.1% | +87.5% |
| Drawdown | 2001-08-30 | 2001-09-24 | 16 | $0.06 | $0.04 | -30.8% | -11.1% | -19.7% |
| Rally | 2001-09-24 | 2002-05-03 | 126 | $0.04 | $0.08 | +92.5% | +7.0% | +85.5% |
| Drawdown | 2002-05-03 | 2002-07-02 | 37 | $0.08 | $0.06 | -22.5% | -11.7% | -10.8% |
| Rally | 2002-07-02 | 2002-11-21 | 74 | $0.06 | $0.08 | +27.9% | -1.5% | +29.5% |
| Drawdown | 2002-11-21 | 2003-04-01 | 59 | $0.08 | $0.07 | -20.0% | -8.1% | -11.9% |
| Rally | 2003-04-01 | 2004-02-05 | 187 | $0.07 | $0.17 | +161.2% | +31.5% | +129.7% |
| Drawdown | 2004-02-05 | 2005-04-07 | 240 | $0.17 | $0.12 | -28.8% | +5.5% | -34.3% |
| Rally | 2005-04-07 | 2007-02-16 | 443 | $0.12 | $0.50 | +311.5% | +22.2% | +289.3% |
| Drawdown | 2007-02-16 | 2007-03-05 | 10 | $0.50 | $0.38 | -23.1% | -5.6% | -17.5% |
| Rally | 2007-03-05 | 2007-06-07 | 66 | $0.38 | $0.68 | +76.5% | +8.5% | +68.0% |
| Drawdown | 2007-06-07 | 2007-08-21 | 54 | $0.68 | $0.47 | -30.3% | -2.9% | -27.3% |
| Rally | 2007-08-21 | 2008-01-08 | 95 | $0.47 | $0.73 | +55.1% | -3.9% | +59.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-01-08 | 2008-03-21 | 48 | $0.73 | $0.45 | -38.9% | -4.4% | -34.6% |
| Rally | 2008-03-21 | 2008-05-02 | 30 | $0.45 | $0.54 | +21.2% | +6.3% | +14.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-05-02 | 2008-12-24 | 152 | $0.54 | $0.19 | -64.4% | -38.6% | -25.8% |
| Rally | 2008-12-24 | 2009-06-10 | 111 | $0.19 | $0.42 | +117.1% | +8.2% | +108.9% |
| Drawdown | 2009-06-10 | 2010-05-25 | 237 | $0.42 | $0.29 | -31.5% | +14.4% | -45.9% |
| Rally | 2010-05-25 | 2011-04-29 | 231 | $0.29 | $0.57 | +99.5% | +27.0% | +72.6% |
| Drawdown | 2011-04-29 | 2011-09-26 | 100 | $0.57 | $0.45 | -21.8% | -14.7% | -7.1% |
| Rally | 2011-09-26 | 2013-05-21 | 404 | $0.45 | $0.93 | +108.3% | +43.5% | +64.8% |
| Drawdown | 2013-05-21 | 2013-06-21 | 23 | $0.93 | $0.61 | -34.8% | -4.6% | -30.2% |
| Rally | 2013-06-21 | 2014-08-15 | 285 | $0.61 | $1.67 | +174.6% | +22.8% | +151.8% |
| Drawdown | 2014-08-15 | 2014-12-16 | 84 | $1.67 | $1.19 | -28.6% | +0.9% | -29.5% |
| Rally | 2014-12-16 | 2015-01-28 | 30 | $1.19 | $1.44 | +21.1% | +1.5% | +19.6% |
| Drawdown | 2015-01-28 | 2015-08-25 | 143 | $1.44 | $1.14 | -21.1% | -6.7% | -14.4% |
| Rally | 2015-08-25 | 2016-04-07 | 151 | $1.14 | $1.61 | +41.6% | +9.3% | +32.2% |
| Drawdown | 2016-04-07 | 2018-12-21 | 663 | $1.61 | $0.74 | -54.4% | +18.4% | -72.8% |
| Rally | 2018-12-21 | 2019-01-16 | 17 | $0.74 | $0.91 | +23.7% | +8.3% | +15.5% |
| Drawdown | 2019-01-16 | 2019-11-01 | 192 | $0.91 | $0.62 | -32.1% | +17.2% | -49.3% |
| Rally | 2019-11-01 | 2020-01-02 | 43 | $0.62 | $0.98 | +58.3% | +6.2% | +52.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-02 | 2020-03-17 | 53 | $0.98 | $0.59 | -39.5% | -22.4% | -17.2% |
| Rally | 2020-03-17 | 2022-04-14 | 508 | $0.59 | $1.46 | +147.1% | +73.7% | +73.4% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-14 | 2023-07-10 | 279 | $1.46 | $0.78 | -46.4% | +0.4% | -46.8% |
| Rally | 2023-07-10 | 2024-03-21 | 166 | $0.78 | $1.32 | +68.5% | +18.9% | +49.7% |
| Drawdown | 2024-03-21 | 2025-06-19 | 289 | $1.32 | $0.93 | -29.7% | +14.1% | -43.8% |
| Rally | 2025-06-19 | 2025-11-05 | 85 | $0.93 | $1.26 | +35.5% | +13.6% | +21.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-11-05 | 2026-08-13 | 157 | $1.26 | $0.98 | -22.0% | +14.8% | -36.8% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-08-13 | 2026-11-05 | 53 | $0.98 | $1.05 | +7.1% | -2.8% | +9.9% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.