Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2004-02-16 | 2004-11-10 | 185 | $1.33 | $0.53 | -60.1% | +1.5% | -61.6% |
| Rally | 2004-11-10 | 2005-01-20 | 46 | $0.53 | $0.77 | +45.2% | +1.1% | +44.2% |
| Drawdown | 2005-01-20 | 2005-06-06 | 86 | $0.77 | $0.34 | -56.3% | +1.9% | -58.2% |
| Rally | 2005-06-06 | 2005-06-13 | 6 | $0.34 | $0.41 | +23.1% | +0.3% | +22.8% |
| Drawdown | 2005-06-13 | 2006-03-27 | 187 | $0.41 | $0.26 | -38.1% | +8.4% | -46.5% |
| Rally | 2006-03-27 | 2006-05-05 | 27 | $0.26 | $0.34 | +34.4% | +1.9% | +32.6% |
| Drawdown | 2006-05-05 | 2006-08-21 | 60 | $0.34 | $0.24 | -31.7% | -2.1% | -29.6% |
| Rally | 2006-08-21 | 2007-01-30 | 96 | $0.24 | $0.57 | +142.9% | +10.1% | +132.7% |
| Drawdown | 2007-01-30 | 2007-02-12 | 9 | $0.57 | $0.42 | -26.5% | +0.3% | -26.8% |
| Rally | 2007-02-12 | 2007-02-22 | 7 | $0.42 | $0.53 | +26.0% | +1.6% | +24.4% |
| Drawdown | 2007-02-22 | 2007-03-05 | 8 | $0.53 | $0.37 | -30.2% | -5.6% | -24.5% |
| Rally | 2007-03-05 | 2008-02-25 | 242 | $0.37 | $0.58 | +56.8% | -0.2% | +57.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-02-25 | 2008-09-26 | 118 | $0.58 | $0.27 | -52.9% | -11.6% | -41.3% |
| Rally | 2008-09-26 | 2008-09-30 | 3 | $0.27 | $0.34 | +23.1% | -3.9% | +26.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-30 | 2008-12-18 | 49 | $0.34 | $0.24 | -28.8% | -24.1% | -4.7% |
| Rally | 2008-12-18 | 2009-02-26 | 31 | $0.24 | $0.34 | +42.1% | -15.0% | +57.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-26 | 2009-02-27 | 2 | $0.34 | $0.25 | -25.9% | -2.4% | -23.6% |
| Rally | 2009-02-27 | 2009-03-05 | 3 | $0.25 | $0.30 | +20.0% | -7.1% | +27.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-03-05 | 2009-03-25 | 6 | $0.30 | $0.23 | -24.3% | +19.2% | -43.5% |
| Rally | 2009-03-25 | 2009-05-27 | 18 | $0.23 | $0.34 | +47.7% | +9.7% | +38.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-05-27 | 2009-06-15 | 13 | $0.34 | $0.27 | -20.5% | +3.4% | -23.9% |
| Rally | 2009-06-15 | 2009-06-19 | 4 | $0.27 | $0.34 | +25.0% | -0.3% | +25.3% |
| Drawdown | 2009-06-19 | 2009-07-15 | 13 | $0.34 | $0.24 | -29.4% | +1.2% | -30.6% |
| Rally | 2009-07-15 | 2009-09-18 | 16 | $0.24 | $0.29 | +21.2% | +14.5% | +6.7% |
| Drawdown | 2009-09-18 | 2009-10-30 | 19 | $0.29 | $0.22 | -24.8% | -3.0% | -21.8% |
| Rally | 2009-10-30 | 2010-04-08 | 70 | $0.22 | $0.29 | +32.0% | +14.5% | +17.5% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-08 | 2011-01-17 | 118 | $0.29 | $0.22 | -21.3% | +9.0% | -30.3% |
| Rally | 2011-01-17 | 2011-06-29 | 47 | $0.22 | $0.32 | +42.1% | +1.1% | +41.0% |
| Drawdown | 2011-06-29 | 2013-04-26 | 176 | $0.32 | $0.22 | -30.3% | +21.0% | -51.3% |
| Rally | 2013-04-26 | 2015-04-20 | 138 | $0.22 | $0.38 | +68.9% | +32.7% | +36.1% |
| Drawdown | 2015-04-20 | 2015-07-27 | 17 | $0.38 | $0.22 | -41.9% | -1.6% | -40.3% |
| Rally | 2015-07-27 | 2016-02-03 | 53 | $0.22 | $0.43 | +96.2% | -7.5% | +103.7% |
| Drawdown | 2016-02-03 | 2016-02-17 | 9 | $0.43 | $0.34 | -20.1% | +0.7% | -20.8% |
| Rally | 2016-02-17 | 2016-05-04 | 55 | $0.34 | $0.69 | +101.2% | +6.5% | +94.8% |
| Drawdown | 2016-05-04 | 2016-05-20 | 13 | $0.69 | $0.33 | -52.1% | +0.1% | -52.2% |
| Rally | 2016-05-20 | 2016-05-24 | 3 | $0.33 | $0.46 | +38.9% | +1.2% | +37.7% |
| Drawdown | 2016-05-24 | 2016-05-31 | 6 | $0.46 | $0.37 | -20.2% | +1.0% | -21.2% |
| Rally | 2016-05-31 | 2016-08-02 | 32 | $0.37 | $0.47 | +28.7% | +2.9% | +25.9% |
| Drawdown | 2016-08-02 | 2016-09-27 | 26 | $0.47 | $0.34 | -28.6% | +0.1% | -28.7% |
| Rally | 2016-09-27 | 2016-11-11 | 18 | $0.34 | $0.41 | +20.6% | +0.2% | +20.4% |
| Drawdown | 2016-11-11 | 2017-01-05 | 27 | $0.41 | $0.16 | -60.6% | +4.8% | -65.5% |
| Rally | 2017-01-05 | 2017-01-18 | 10 | $0.16 | $0.26 | +61.8% | +0.1% | +61.7% |
| Drawdown | 2017-01-18 | 2017-09-07 | 131 | $0.26 | $0.10 | -62.6% | +8.5% | -71.1% |
| Rally | 2017-09-07 | 2017-10-17 | 10 | $0.10 | $0.13 | +32.6% | +3.8% | +28.8% |
| Drawdown | 2017-10-17 | 2018-02-06 | 40 | $0.13 | $0.08 | -36.1% | +5.3% | -41.4% |
| Rally | 2018-02-06 | 2018-03-09 | 5 | $0.08 | $0.11 | +38.5% | +3.4% | +35.1% |
| Drawdown | 2018-03-09 | 2018-06-06 | 16 | $0.11 | $0.05 | -51.9% | -0.5% | -51.3% |
| Rally | 2018-06-06 | 2018-08-15 | 45 | $0.05 | $0.19 | +250.0% | +1.7% | +248.3% |
| Drawdown | 2018-08-15 | 2018-08-30 | 10 | $0.19 | $0.10 | -49.5% | +2.9% | -52.4% |
| Rally | 2018-08-30 | 2018-10-04 | 18 | $0.10 | $0.20 | +110.9% | +0.0% | +110.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-10-04 | 2018-10-31 | 19 | $0.20 | $0.12 | -39.2% | -6.5% | -32.6% |
| Rally | 2018-10-31 | 2018-12-14 | 25 | $0.12 | $0.20 | +59.3% | -4.1% | +63.4% |
| Drawdown | 2018-12-14 | 2018-12-18 | 3 | $0.20 | $0.12 | -40.4% | -2.1% | -38.4% |
| Rally | 2018-12-18 | 2018-12-19 | 2 | $0.12 | $0.15 | +28.6% | -1.5% | +30.1% |
| Drawdown | 2018-12-19 | 2018-12-26 | 5 | $0.15 | $0.12 | -22.2% | -1.6% | -20.7% |
| Rally | 2018-12-26 | 2019-01-17 | 16 | $0.12 | $0.25 | +112.5% | +6.8% | +105.7% |
| Drawdown | 2019-01-17 | 2019-02-15 | 18 | $0.25 | $0.12 | -52.9% | +5.3% | -58.2% |
| Rally | 2019-02-15 | 2019-03-05 | 13 | $0.12 | $0.20 | +71.4% | +0.5% | +70.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-03-05 | 2019-04-17 | 32 | $0.20 | $0.13 | -36.5% | +4.0% | -40.4% |
| Rally | 2019-04-17 | 2019-05-02 | 11 | $0.13 | $0.23 | +77.0% | +0.6% | +76.5% |
| Drawdown | 2019-05-02 | 2019-05-24 | 15 | $0.23 | $0.16 | -31.5% | -3.1% | -28.3% |
| Rally | 2019-05-24 | 2019-07-04 | 28 | $0.16 | $0.21 | +35.1% | +6.0% | +29.1% |
| Drawdown | 2019-07-04 | 2019-09-30 | 58 | $0.21 | $0.13 | -39.0% | -0.6% | -38.4% |
| Rally | 2019-09-30 | 2019-10-30 | 22 | $0.13 | $0.16 | +26.2% | +2.4% | +23.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-10-30 | 2020-02-03 | 66 | $0.16 | $0.10 | -37.7% | +6.6% | -44.3% |
| Rally | 2020-02-03 | 2020-02-07 | 5 | $0.10 | $0.13 | +27.1% | +2.4% | +24.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-07 | 2020-03-23 | 32 | $0.13 | $0.04 | -65.6% | -32.8% | -32.8% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2020-05-20 | 40 | $0.04 | $0.16 | +271.4% | +32.8% | +238.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-05-20 | 2020-06-15 | 16 | $0.16 | $0.12 | -26.9% | +3.2% | -30.1% |
| Rally | 2020-06-15 | 2020-06-17 | 3 | $0.12 | $0.14 | +21.1% | +1.5% | +19.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-17 | 2020-11-02 | 94 | $0.14 | $0.10 | -29.0% | +6.3% | -35.3% |
| Rally | 2020-11-02 | 2021-02-22 | 76 | $0.10 | $0.18 | +73.5% | +17.1% | +56.4% |
| Drawdown | 2021-02-22 | 2021-11-11 | 178 | $0.18 | $0.07 | -62.4% | +19.9% | -82.3% |
| Rally | 2021-11-11 | 2021-11-16 | 4 | $0.07 | $0.08 | +21.9% | +1.1% | +20.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-11-16 | 2022-01-24 | 48 | $0.08 | $0.06 | -31.6% | -6.2% | -25.4% |
| Rally | 2022-01-24 | 2022-02-14 | 14 | $0.06 | $0.07 | +25.0% | -0.2% | +25.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-14 | 2022-03-08 | 17 | $0.07 | $0.05 | -26.7% | -5.2% | -21.5% |
| Rally | 2022-03-08 | 2022-04-06 | 22 | $0.05 | $0.07 | +27.3% | +7.4% | +19.8% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-06 | 2022-07-19 | 68 | $0.07 | $0.05 | -25.0% | -12.2% | -12.8% |
| Rally | 2022-07-19 | 2022-12-08 | 97 | $0.05 | $0.07 | +38.2% | +0.7% | +37.5% |
| Drawdown | 2022-12-08 | 2023-03-16 | 65 | $0.07 | $0.05 | -31.0% | -0.1% | -30.9% |
| Rally | 2023-03-16 | 2023-04-06 | 16 | $0.05 | $0.06 | +24.8% | +3.7% | +21.2% |
| Drawdown | 2023-04-06 | 2023-12-15 | 172 | $0.06 | $0.03 | -43.9% | +15.0% | -58.9% |
| Rally | 2023-12-15 | 2024-01-09 | 16 | $0.03 | $0.04 | +35.5% | +0.8% | +34.7% |
| Drawdown | 2024-01-09 | 2024-01-18 | 8 | $0.04 | $0.04 | -21.0% | +0.5% | -21.5% |
| Rally | 2024-01-18 | 2024-01-24 | 5 | $0.04 | $0.06 | +71.4% | +1.8% | +69.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-01-24 | 2024-02-06 | 8 | $0.06 | $0.05 | -25.0% | +1.8% | -26.8% |
| Rally | 2024-02-06 | 2024-02-29 | 17 | $0.05 | $0.06 | +22.2% | +2.9% | +19.4% |
| Drawdown | 2024-02-29 | 2024-04-15 | 30 | $0.06 | $0.04 | -36.4% | -0.7% | -35.7% |
| Rally | 2024-04-15 | 2024-04-16 | 2 | $0.04 | $0.05 | +28.6% | -0.2% | +28.8% |
| Drawdown | 2024-04-16 | 2024-05-28 | 29 | $0.05 | $0.03 | -33.3% | +5.0% | -38.4% |
| Rally | 2024-05-28 | 2024-06-19 | 15 | $0.03 | $0.06 | +83.3% | +3.4% | +79.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-06-19 | 2024-09-27 | 68 | $0.06 | $0.03 | -45.5% | +4.6% | -50.0% |
| Rally | 2024-09-27 | 2024-11-06 | 26 | $0.03 | $0.05 | +50.0% | +3.3% | +46.7% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-06 | 2025-02-07 | 59 | $0.05 | $0.03 | -33.3% | +1.6% | -35.0% |
| Rally | 2025-02-07 | 2025-02-14 | 5 | $0.03 | $0.04 | +33.3% | +1.5% | +31.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-14 | 2025-04-07 | 32 | $0.04 | $0.03 | -37.5% | -17.2% | -20.3% |
| Rally | 2025-04-07 | 2025-07-04 | 61 | $0.03 | $0.04 | +40.0% | +24.0% | +16.0% |
| Drawdown | 2025-07-04 | 2025-07-11 | 6 | $0.04 | $0.03 | -28.6% | -0.3% | -28.3% |
| Rally | 2025-07-11 | 2025-10-21 | 72 | $0.03 | $0.04 | +60.0% | +7.6% | +52.4% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-21 | 2025-12-05 | 34 | $0.04 | $0.02 | -50.0% | +2.0% | -52.0% |
| Rally | 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-10 | 4 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +25.0% | +0.2% | +24.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-12 | 3 | $0.03 | $0.02 | -20.0% | -0.9% | -19.1% |
| Rally | 2025-12-12 | 2026-02-04 | 38 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +50.0% | +0.8% | +49.2% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-04 | 2026-03-02 | 17 | $0.03 | $0.02 | -33.3% | 0.0% | -33.3% |
| Rally | 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-13 | 10 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +25.0% | -3.6% | +28.6% |
| Drawdown | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-16 | 2 | $0.03 | $0.02 | -20.0% | +1.0% | -21.0% |
| Rally | 2026-03-16 | 2026-03-24 | 6 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +25.0% | -2.1% | +27.1% |
| Drawdown | 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-25 | 2 | $0.03 | $0.02 | -20.0% | +0.5% | -20.5% |
| Rally | 2026-03-25 | 2026-06-02 | 50 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +50.0% | +15.4% | +34.6% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-08 | 5 | $0.03 | $0.02 | -33.3% | -2.7% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-24 | 13 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +50.0% | -0.6% | +50.6% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-30 | 5 | $0.03 | $0.02 | -33.3% | +1.9% | -35.3% |
| Rally | 2026-06-30 | 2026-09-02 | 47 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +50.0% | +2.2% | +47.8% |
| Drawdown | 2026-09-02 | 2026-09-21 | 14 | $0.03 | $0.02 | -33.3% | +1.3% | -34.6% |
| Rally | 2026-09-21 | 2026-09-28 | 6 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +25.0% | -1.0% | +26.0% |
| Drawdown | 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-29 | 2 | $0.03 | $0.02 | -20.0% | -0.2% | -19.8% |
| Rally | 2026-09-29 | 2026-10-15 | 13 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +25.0% | +1.0% | +24.0% |
| Drawdown | 2026-10-15 | 2026-10-26 | 8 | $0.03 | $0.02 | -20.0% | -0.9% | -19.1% |
| Rally | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-28 | 3 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +25.0% | +0.9% | +24.1% |
| Drawdown | 2026-10-28 | 2026-10-29 | 2 | $0.03 | $0.02 | -20.0% | -0.3% | -19.7% |
| Rally | 2026-10-29 | 2026-10-30 | 2 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +25.0% | -1.8% | +26.8% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-10-30 | 2026-11-06 | 6 | $0.03 | $0.02 | -20.0% | -3.0% | -17.0% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.