Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1994-06-28 | 1996-01-19 | 33 | $0.15 | $0.48 | +217.8% | +37.2% | +180.7% |
| Drawdown | 1996-01-19 | 1996-03-13 | 33 | $0.48 | $0.35 | -26.9% | +4.4% | -31.2% |
| Rally | 1996-03-13 | 1996-08-26 | 112 | $0.35 | $0.82 | +134.9% | +4.0% | +130.9% |
| Drawdown | 1996-08-26 | 1996-12-17 | 80 | $0.82 | $0.48 | -41.1% | +9.4% | -50.5% |
| Rally | 1996-12-17 | 1997-03-24 | 60 | $0.48 | $0.75 | +56.4% | +8.9% | +47.5% |
| Drawdown | 1997-03-24 | 1997-08-28 | 98 | $0.75 | $0.37 | -50.5% | +14.3% | -64.7% |
| Rally | 1997-08-28 | 1997-09-10 | 9 | $0.37 | $0.60 | +59.8% | +1.7% | +58.1% |
| Drawdown | 1997-09-10 | 1998-01-12 | 80 | $0.60 | $0.08 | -86.6% | +2.2% | -88.8% |
| Rally | 1998-01-12 | 1998-01-19 | 6 | $0.08 | $0.18 | +126.1% | +2.4% | +123.8% |
| Drawdown | 1998-01-19 | 1998-01-22 | 4 | $0.18 | $0.12 | -34.5% | +0.2% | -34.7% |
| Rally | 1998-01-22 | 1998-02-11 | 10 | $0.12 | $0.22 | +83.7% | +5.9% | +77.8% |
| Drawdown | 1998-02-11 | 1998-03-09 | 19 | $0.22 | $0.15 | -30.3% | +3.2% | -33.5% |
| Rally | 1998-03-09 | 1998-07-20 | 63 | $0.15 | $0.20 | +29.7% | +12.5% | +17.1% |
| Drawdown | 1998-07-20 | 1998-08-18 | 11 | $0.20 | $0.12 | -38.6% | -7.0% | -31.6% |
| Rally | 1998-08-18 | 1998-11-30 | 42 | $0.12 | $0.31 | +157.2% | +5.7% | +151.6% |
| Drawdown | 1998-11-30 | 1999-03-26 | 53 | $0.31 | $0.14 | -53.3% | +10.2% | -63.6% |
| Rally | 1999-03-26 | 1999-07-06 | 51 | $0.14 | $0.25 | +76.2% | +8.2% | +68.0% |
| Drawdown | 1999-07-06 | 1999-08-09 | 13 | $0.25 | $0.18 | -29.7% | -6.5% | -23.2% |
| Rally | 1999-08-09 | 2000-02-24 | 51 | $0.18 | $0.36 | +104.2% | +4.3% | +99.9% |
| Drawdown | 2000-02-24 | 2001-06-18 | 134 | $0.36 | $0.12 | -66.4% | -10.7% | -55.7% |
| Rally | 2001-06-18 | 2001-09-11 | 26 | $0.12 | $0.18 | +47.8% | -9.6% | +57.4% |
| Drawdown | 2001-09-11 | 2001-09-24 | 8 | $0.18 | $0.14 | -25.2% | -8.2% | -17.1% |
| Rally | 2001-09-24 | 2002-04-16 | 62 | $0.14 | $0.27 | +100.0% | +12.4% | +87.6% |
| Drawdown | 2002-04-16 | 2003-04-21 | 42 | $0.27 | $0.14 | -46.8% | -20.9% | -25.8% |
| Rally | 2003-04-21 | 2003-12-16 | 78 | $0.14 | $0.46 | +220.7% | +20.5% | +200.1% |
| Drawdown | 2003-12-16 | 2003-12-23 | 6 | $0.46 | $0.35 | -25.2% | +1.9% | -27.2% |
| Rally | 2003-12-23 | 2003-12-26 | 3 | $0.35 | $0.50 | +44.8% | 0.0% | +44.8% |
| Drawdown | 2003-12-26 | 2004-06-03 | 100 | $0.50 | $0.15 | -69.1% | +1.9% | -71.0% |
| Rally | 2004-06-03 | 2004-06-04 | 2 | $0.15 | $0.20 | +29.9% | +0.5% | +29.4% |
| Drawdown | 2004-06-04 | 2004-12-13 | 86 | $0.20 | $0.15 | -25.0% | +6.8% | -31.8% |
| Rally | 2004-12-13 | 2005-01-14 | 22 | $0.15 | $0.22 | +48.3% | -1.2% | +49.5% |
| Drawdown | 2005-01-14 | 2005-06-02 | 66 | $0.22 | $0.10 | -55.2% | +1.7% | -56.9% |
| Rally | 2005-06-02 | 2005-08-08 | 24 | $0.10 | $0.14 | +43.4% | +1.6% | +41.8% |
| Drawdown | 2005-08-08 | 2006-06-30 | 106 | $0.14 | $0.09 | -39.6% | +3.8% | -43.4% |
| Rally | 2006-06-30 | 2006-07-07 | 3 | $0.09 | $0.13 | +53.0% | -0.4% | +53.4% |
| Drawdown | 2006-07-07 | 2006-10-11 | 18 | $0.13 | $0.08 | -40.8% | +6.7% | -47.5% |
| Rally | 2006-10-11 | 2006-11-03 | 6 | $0.08 | $0.11 | +42.2% | +1.1% | +41.2% |
| Drawdown | 2006-11-03 | 2006-12-28 | 21 | $0.11 | $0.07 | -35.2% | +4.4% | -39.7% |
| Rally | 2006-12-28 | 2007-02-23 | 25 | $0.07 | $0.12 | +70.0% | +1.9% | +68.2% |
| Drawdown | 2007-02-23 | 2007-06-11 | 41 | $0.12 | $0.08 | -37.0% | +4.0% | -41.0% |
| Rally | 2007-06-11 | 2007-07-04 | 8 | $0.08 | $0.11 | +46.6% | +1.0% | +45.6% |
| Drawdown | 2007-07-04 | 2007-08-10 | 10 | $0.11 | $0.08 | -26.4% | -4.7% | -21.7% |
| Rally | 2007-08-10 | 2007-08-20 | 6 | $0.08 | $0.11 | +25.3% | -0.6% | +25.9% |
| Drawdown | 2007-08-20 | 2008-03-18 | 35 | $0.11 | $0.04 | -60.0% | -7.9% | -52.1% |
| Rally | 2008-03-18 | 2008-06-06 | 8 | $0.04 | $0.06 | +50.0% | +2.2% | +47.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-06-06 | 2009-04-30 | 14 | $0.06 | $0.03 | -47.5% | -35.9% | -11.6% |
| Rally | 2009-04-30 | 2009-11-02 | 15 | $0.03 | $0.07 | +107.6% | +19.5% | +88.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-11-02 | 2009-11-19 | 4 | $0.07 | $0.05 | -31.7% | +5.0% | -36.7% |
| Rally | 2009-11-19 | 2009-12-17 | 6 | $0.05 | $0.06 | +34.1% | +0.1% | +34.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-12-17 | 2010-01-11 | 2 | $0.06 | $0.05 | -20.0% | +4.6% | -24.7% |
| Rally | 2010-01-11 | 2010-01-29 | 4 | $0.05 | $0.07 | +36.6% | -6.4% | +43.0% |
| Drawdown | 2010-01-29 | 2010-04-06 | 11 | $0.07 | $0.05 | -23.4% | +10.8% | -34.2% |
| Rally | 2010-04-06 | 2010-04-30 | 5 | $0.05 | $0.08 | +43.5% | -0.2% | +43.8% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-30 | 2010-05-11 | 4 | $0.08 | $0.06 | -22.6% | -2.6% | -20.0% |
| Rally | 2010-05-11 | 2010-11-12 | 22 | $0.06 | $0.09 | +61.5% | +3.8% | +57.7% |
| Drawdown | 2010-11-12 | 2010-12-15 | 5 | $0.09 | $0.06 | -37.5% | +3.0% | -40.5% |
| Rally | 2010-12-15 | 2011-01-10 | 2 | $0.06 | $0.08 | +37.0% | +2.8% | +34.2% |
| Drawdown | 2011-01-10 | 2011-02-08 | 5 | $0.08 | $0.06 | -25.5% | +4.3% | -29.8% |
| Rally | 2011-02-08 | 2011-02-09 | 2 | $0.06 | $0.08 | +33.3% | -0.3% | +33.6% |
| Drawdown | 2011-02-09 | 2012-04-25 | 43 | $0.08 | $0.05 | -36.0% | +5.3% | -41.2% |
| Rally | 2012-04-25 | 2012-09-04 | 12 | $0.05 | $0.06 | +21.8% | +1.0% | +20.8% |
| Drawdown | 2012-09-04 | 2013-04-12 | 28 | $0.06 | $0.05 | -22.4% | +13.1% | -35.5% |
| Rally | 2013-04-12 | 2013-10-30 | 24 | $0.05 | $0.08 | +71.1% | +11.0% | +60.2% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-30 | 2013-12-03 | 6 | $0.08 | $0.07 | -20.6% | +1.8% | -22.4% |
| Rally | 2013-12-03 | 2014-11-05 | 82 | $0.07 | $0.15 | +125.0% | +12.7% | +112.3% |
| Drawdown | 2014-11-05 | 2015-04-15 | 39 | $0.15 | $0.12 | -20.9% | +4.1% | -25.0% |
| Rally | 2015-04-15 | 2015-06-08 | 17 | $0.12 | $0.17 | +42.5% | -1.3% | +43.8% |
| Drawdown | 2015-06-08 | 2016-03-24 | 32 | $0.17 | $0.09 | -47.5% | -2.1% | -45.4% |
| Rally | 2016-03-24 | 2018-09-19 | 153 | $0.09 | $0.21 | +142.0% | +42.8% | +99.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-09-19 | 2019-01-29 | 25 | $0.21 | $0.11 | -49.4% | -9.2% | -40.2% |
| Rally | 2019-01-29 | 2019-05-24 | 18 | $0.11 | $0.15 | +38.4% | +7.0% | +31.4% |
| Drawdown | 2019-05-24 | 2020-02-19 | 10 | $0.15 | $0.10 | -36.2% | +19.8% | -56.0% |
| Rally | 2020-02-19 | 2020-03-05 | 3 | $0.10 | $0.12 | +21.1% | -10.7% | +31.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-05 | 2020-06-03 | 11 | $0.12 | $0.08 | -30.4% | +3.3% | -33.7% |
| Rally | 2020-06-03 | 2021-01-07 | 24 | $0.08 | $0.17 | +109.4% | +21.8% | +87.6% |
| Drawdown | 2021-01-07 | 2021-01-11 | 3 | $0.17 | $0.12 | -29.9% | -0.1% | -29.7% |
| Rally | 2021-01-11 | 2021-01-14 | 4 | $0.12 | $0.20 | +71.3% | -0.1% | +71.4% |
| Drawdown | 2021-01-14 | 2021-01-15 | 2 | $0.20 | $0.16 | -23.0% | -0.7% | -22.3% |
| Rally | 2021-01-15 | 2021-02-15 | 17 | $0.16 | $0.35 | +124.2% | +4.4% | +119.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-02-15 | 2021-03-03 | 13 | $0.35 | $0.25 | -27.3% | -2.9% | -24.4% |
| Rally | 2021-03-03 | 2021-05-03 | 43 | $0.25 | $0.62 | +144.6% | +9.8% | +134.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-05-03 | 2021-05-21 | 13 | $0.62 | $0.44 | -28.7% | -0.9% | -27.9% |
| Rally | 2021-05-21 | 2021-06-11 | 14 | $0.44 | $0.68 | +54.0% | +2.2% | +51.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-06-11 | 2021-11-23 | 112 | $0.68 | $0.23 | -65.5% | +10.4% | -75.9% |
| Rally | 2021-11-23 | 2022-01-04 | 30 | $0.23 | $0.33 | +42.2% | +2.2% | +40.0% |
| Drawdown | 2022-01-04 | 2022-01-13 | 8 | $0.33 | $0.23 | -30.1% | -2.8% | -27.3% |
| Rally | 2022-01-13 | 2022-02-04 | 14 | $0.23 | $0.29 | +25.8% | -3.4% | +29.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-04 | 2022-11-30 | 201 | $0.29 | $0.22 | -24.3% | -9.3% | -15.0% |
| Rally | 2022-11-30 | 2024-09-02 | 430 | $0.22 | $1.06 | +379.0% | +38.4% | +340.6% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2024-09-02 | 2026-11-05 | 550 | $1.06 | $0.87 | -17.9% | +34.2% | -52.1% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.