Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1994-06-28 | 1996-04-09 | 86 | $0.30 | $0.80 | +164.8% | +44.0% | +120.8% |
| Drawdown | 1996-04-09 | 1996-06-04 | 37 | $0.80 | $0.45 | -43.2% | +4.7% | -47.9% |
| Rally | 1996-06-04 | 1996-11-13 | 115 | $0.45 | $0.79 | +74.4% | +8.7% | +65.7% |
| Drawdown | 1996-11-13 | 1996-12-18 | 26 | $0.79 | $0.47 | -40.6% | +0.1% | -40.7% |
| Rally | 1996-12-18 | 1997-01-08 | 14 | $0.47 | $0.61 | +29.7% | +2.3% | +27.4% |
| Drawdown | 1997-01-08 | 1997-09-04 | 162 | $0.61 | $0.25 | -58.8% | +24.4% | -83.1% |
| Rally | 1997-09-04 | 1997-09-09 | 4 | $0.25 | $0.33 | +32.2% | +0.3% | +31.9% |
| Drawdown | 1997-09-09 | 1997-12-24 | 75 | $0.33 | $0.09 | -73.8% | -0.1% | -73.7% |
| Rally | 1997-12-24 | 1998-01-19 | 17 | $0.09 | $0.17 | +89.9% | +3.1% | +86.8% |
| Drawdown | 1998-01-19 | 1998-01-22 | 4 | $0.17 | $0.12 | -25.7% | +0.2% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 1998-01-22 | 1998-02-09 | 8 | $0.12 | $0.21 | +74.2% | +5.0% | +69.3% |
| Drawdown | 1998-02-09 | 1998-08-18 | 120 | $0.21 | $0.11 | -48.3% | +8.9% | -57.3% |
| Rally | 1998-08-18 | 1999-01-11 | 89 | $0.11 | $0.33 | +201.6% | +14.8% | +186.9% |
| Drawdown | 1999-01-11 | 1999-03-22 | 40 | $0.33 | $0.23 | -30.5% | +2.6% | -33.1% |
| Rally | 1999-03-22 | 1999-07-12 | 77 | $0.23 | $0.44 | +91.5% | +7.9% | +83.6% |
| Drawdown | 1999-07-12 | 1999-08-09 | 21 | $0.44 | $0.33 | -25.5% | -7.2% | -18.2% |
| Rally | 1999-08-09 | 2000-03-28 | 143 | $0.33 | $0.65 | +97.4% | +16.2% | +81.3% |
| Drawdown | 2000-03-28 | 2000-06-26 | 58 | $0.65 | $0.48 | -26.7% | -3.5% | -23.2% |
| Rally | 2000-06-26 | 2000-08-16 | 33 | $0.48 | $0.59 | +23.5% | +1.7% | +21.8% |
| Drawdown | 2000-08-16 | 2001-04-10 | 143 | $0.59 | $0.41 | -30.3% | -21.0% | -9.3% |
| Rally | 2001-04-10 | 2001-08-03 | 77 | $0.41 | $0.58 | +40.4% | +3.9% | +36.4% |
| Drawdown | 2001-08-03 | 2001-09-25 | 36 | $0.58 | $0.42 | -27.2% | -16.6% | -10.5% |
| Rally | 2001-09-25 | 2002-04-15 | 124 | $0.42 | $0.56 | +32.9% | +8.9% | +24.0% |
| Drawdown | 2002-04-15 | 2003-04-25 | 197 | $0.56 | $0.38 | -32.7% | -18.5% | -14.2% |
| Rally | 2003-04-25 | 2005-02-28 | 406 | $0.38 | $0.54 | +42.5% | +33.9% | +8.6% |
| Drawdown | 2005-02-28 | 2005-12-16 | 177 | $0.54 | $0.39 | -26.6% | +5.3% | -31.9% |
| Rally | 2005-12-16 | 2007-01-09 | 253 | $0.39 | $0.71 | +80.3% | +11.4% | +68.9% |
| Drawdown | 2007-01-09 | 2007-05-31 | 96 | $0.71 | $0.52 | -26.2% | +8.4% | -34.6% |
| Rally | 2007-05-31 | 2008-09-03 | 250 | $0.52 | $0.64 | +21.4% | -16.7% | +38.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-03 | 2008-10-28 | 20 | $0.64 | $0.44 | -30.8% | -26.2% | -4.5% |
| Rally | 2008-10-28 | 2008-12-26 | 21 | $0.44 | $0.61 | +39.2% | -7.2% | +46.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-26 | 2009-02-18 | 15 | $0.61 | $0.46 | -25.0% | -9.7% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 2009-02-18 | 2009-05-19 | 43 | $0.46 | $0.56 | +22.2% | +15.2% | +7.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-05-19 | 2011-12-16 | 444 | $0.56 | $0.27 | -52.3% | +34.3% | -86.6% |
| Rally | 2011-12-16 | 2013-08-14 | 362 | $0.27 | $0.63 | +135.1% | +38.2% | +96.9% |
| Drawdown | 2013-08-14 | 2014-03-25 | 145 | $0.63 | $0.48 | -23.8% | +10.7% | -34.5% |
| Rally | 2014-03-25 | 2015-03-18 | 226 | $0.48 | $1.22 | +153.8% | +12.5% | +141.3% |
| Drawdown | 2015-03-18 | 2015-08-26 | 110 | $1.22 | $0.96 | -21.1% | -7.6% | -13.6% |
| Rally | 2015-08-26 | 2016-01-04 | 69 | $0.96 | $1.42 | +47.0% | +3.7% | +43.3% |
| Drawdown | 2016-01-04 | 2019-09-19 | 707 | $1.42 | $0.33 | -76.4% | +49.4% | -125.7% |
| Rally | 2019-09-19 | 2019-12-31 | 58 | $0.33 | $0.44 | +32.9% | +7.4% | +25.4% |
| Drawdown | 2019-12-31 | 2020-04-06 | 41 | $0.44 | $0.21 | -53.6% | -17.6% | -36.1% |
| Rally | 2020-04-06 | 2020-07-13 | 62 | $0.21 | $0.78 | +277.8% | +18.5% | +259.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-07-13 | 2020-07-21 | 7 | $0.78 | $0.52 | -33.5% | +3.2% | -36.8% |
| Rally | 2020-07-21 | 2020-08-10 | 14 | $0.52 | $0.92 | +77.0% | +3.2% | +73.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-08-10 | 2020-09-10 | 22 | $0.92 | $0.46 | -50.0% | -0.6% | -49.4% |
| Rally | 2020-09-10 | 2020-10-28 | 34 | $0.46 | $0.67 | +47.0% | -2.0% | +49.0% |
| Drawdown | 2020-10-28 | 2021-02-02 | 65 | $0.67 | $0.53 | -21.1% | +17.0% | -38.1% |
| Rally | 2021-02-02 | 2021-04-30 | 61 | $0.53 | $1.25 | +134.5% | +9.3% | +125.2% |
| Drawdown | 2021-04-30 | 2021-10-08 | 108 | $1.25 | $0.67 | -46.3% | +5.0% | -51.4% |
| Rally | 2021-10-08 | 2022-06-01 | 158 | $0.67 | $3.76 | +462.2% | -6.6% | +468.8% |
| Drawdown | 2022-06-01 | 2022-07-14 | 30 | $3.76 | $2.30 | -38.9% | -7.6% | -31.3% |
| Rally | 2022-07-14 | 2022-08-25 | 31 | $2.30 | $3.62 | +57.2% | +10.8% | +46.4% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-25 | 2023-06-07 | 188 | $3.62 | $0.99 | -72.8% | +1.6% | -74.4% |
| Rally | 2023-06-07 | 2023-07-06 | 21 | $0.99 | $1.24 | +25.9% | +3.4% | +22.5% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-06 | 2023-10-05 | 63 | $1.24 | $0.81 | -35.1% | -3.5% | -31.6% |
| Rally | 2023-10-05 | 2024-01-10 | 67 | $0.81 | $1.07 | +32.9% | +12.3% | +20.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-01-10 | 2025-02-21 | 269 | $1.07 | $0.70 | -34.6% | +25.7% | -60.3% |
| Rally | 2025-02-21 | 2025-03-27 | 24 | $0.70 | $0.89 | +26.4% | -5.3% | +31.7% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-27 | 2025-09-10 | 112 | $0.89 | $0.68 | -23.2% | +14.7% | -37.9% |
| Rally | 2025-09-10 | 2026-01-28 | 100 | $0.68 | $0.92 | +34.6% | +6.8% | +27.7% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-28 | 2026-03-09 | 26 | $0.92 | $0.71 | -22.4% | -2.6% | -19.8% |
| Rally | 2026-03-09 | 2026-08-05 | 107 | $0.71 | $1.12 | +57.7% | +13.6% | +44.1% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-08-05 | 2026-11-06 | 68 | $1.12 | $0.80 | -28.6% | -4.8% | -23.8% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.