Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1998-06-15 | 1998-08-10 | 40 | $8.07 | $13.98 | +73.2% | +3,081.0% | +0.6% | +72.6% |
| Drawdown | 1998-08-10 | 1998-09-01 | 17 | $13.98 | $10.39 | -25.7% | -98.8% | -8.2% | -17.5% |
| Rally | 1998-09-01 | 1999-02-02 | 102 | $10.39 | $26.17 | +151.9% | +880.3% | +26.9% | +125.0% |
| Drawdown | 1999-02-02 | 1999-02-26 | 19 | $26.17 | $20.17 | -22.9% | -96.8% | -1.9% | -21.0% |
| Rally | 1999-02-26 | 1999-06-28 | 81 | $20.17 | $28.46 | +41.1% | +191.8% | +7.5% | +33.6% |
| Drawdown | 1999-06-28 | 1999-09-30 | 69 | $28.46 | $19.61 | -31.1% | -74.3% | -3.7% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 1999-09-30 | 2000-02-24 | 100 | $19.61 | $71.11 | +262.6% | +2,468.3% | +5.5% | +257.1% |
| Drawdown | 2000-02-24 | 2000-03-07 | 8 | $71.11 | $52.30 | -26.4% | -100.0% | +0.2% | -26.6% |
| Rally | 2000-03-07 | 2000-03-28 | 16 | $52.30 | $69.60 | +33.1% | +8,908.0% | +11.2% | +21.9% |
| Drawdown | 2000-03-28 | 2000-05-09 | 25 | $69.60 | $33.19 | -52.3% | -99.9% | -6.3% | -46.0% |
| Rally | 2000-05-09 | 2000-05-16 | 6 | $33.19 | $43.25 | +30.3% | +6,730,957.0% | +3.8% | +26.5% |
| Drawdown | 2000-05-16 | 2000-05-26 | 9 | $43.25 | $32.19 | -25.6% | -100.0% | -6.0% | -19.6% |
| Rally | 2000-05-26 | 2000-06-27 | 22 | $32.19 | $49.49 | +53.7% | +13,700.0% | +5.3% | +48.5% |
| Drawdown | 2000-06-27 | 2000-08-23 | 41 | $49.49 | $29.26 | -40.9% | -96.0% | +3.8% | -44.7% |
| Rally | 2000-08-23 | 2000-09-04 | 9 | $29.26 | $36.95 | +26.2% | +68,207.8% | +1.0% | +25.3% |
| Drawdown | 2000-09-04 | 2000-12-04 | 65 | $36.95 | $22.23 | -39.8% | -86.0% | -12.9% | -26.9% |
| Rally | 2000-12-04 | 2000-12-18 | 11 | $22.23 | $27.56 | +23.9% | +13,579.9% | -0.2% | +24.1% |
| Drawdown | 2000-12-18 | 2001-03-14 | 60 | $27.56 | $14.84 | -46.2% | -92.6% | -11.8% | -34.4% |
| Rally | 2001-03-14 | 2001-04-19 | 25 | $14.84 | $18.01 | +21.4% | +604.4% | +7.5% | +13.9% |
| Drawdown | 2001-04-19 | 2001-07-25 | 67 | $18.01 | $7.26 | -59.7% | -96.7% | -5.0% | -54.7% |
| Rally | 2001-07-25 | 2001-08-28 | 24 | $7.26 | $10.20 | +40.6% | +3,471.7% | -2.4% | +43.0% |
| Drawdown | 2001-08-28 | 2001-10-03 | 27 | $10.20 | $7.28 | -28.7% | -95.7% | -7.7% | -21.0% |
| Rally | 2001-10-03 | 2001-11-14 | 30 | $7.28 | $12.85 | +76.6% | +11,798.7% | +6.4% | +70.2% |
| Drawdown | 2001-11-14 | 2001-12-14 | 23 | $12.85 | $8.71 | -32.3% | -98.6% | -1.6% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 2001-12-14 | 2002-01-24 | 26 | $8.71 | $13.68 | +57.1% | +7,889.9% | +0.8% | +56.3% |
| Drawdown | 2002-01-24 | 2002-05-10 | 73 | $13.68 | $9.00 | -34.2% | -76.5% | -6.8% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 2002-05-10 | 2002-05-21 | 8 | $9.00 | $10.82 | +20.3% | +33,446.8% | +2.4% | +17.9% |
| Drawdown | 2002-05-21 | 2002-07-25 | 47 | $10.82 | $4.87 | -55.0% | -98.6% | -22.3% | -32.6% |
| Rally | 2002-07-25 | 2002-07-29 | 3 | $4.87 | $6.43 | +31.9% | +1,271,403,040,430.5% | +7.2% | +24.7% |
| Drawdown | 2002-07-29 | 2002-09-04 | 27 | $6.43 | $4.44 | -31.0% | -96.9% | -0.6% | -30.3% |
| Rally | 2002-09-04 | 2002-09-16 | 9 | $4.44 | $5.39 | +21.5% | +23,227.5% | -0.3% | +21.8% |
| Drawdown | 2002-09-16 | 2002-11-15 | 43 | $5.39 | $3.54 | -34.2% | -91.4% | +2.1% | -36.3% |
| Rally | 2002-11-15 | 2003-09-16 | 209 | $3.54 | $13.56 | +282.5% | +404.0% | +13.1% | +269.3% |
| Drawdown | 2003-09-16 | 2003-11-25 | 50 | $13.56 | $10.16 | -25.1% | -76.7% | +2.4% | -27.5% |
| Rally | 2003-11-25 | 2004-03-05 | 70 | $10.16 | $12.23 | +20.4% | +95.1% | +9.8% | +10.6% |
| Drawdown | 2004-03-05 | 2004-07-16 | 92 | $12.23 | $7.26 | -40.7% | -76.1% | -4.8% | -35.9% |
| Rally | 2004-07-16 | 2005-02-28 | 159 | $7.26 | $12.56 | +73.1% | +138.7% | +9.3% | +63.9% |
| Drawdown | 2005-02-28 | 2005-05-10 | 48 | $12.56 | $9.00 | -28.4% | -82.7% | -3.1% | -25.3% |
| Rally | 2005-05-10 | 2006-01-11 | 172 | $9.00 | $20.31 | +125.8% | +229.8% | +11.0% | +114.8% |
| Drawdown | 2006-01-11 | 2006-05-05 | 79 | $20.31 | $14.92 | -26.5% | -62.6% | +2.4% | -29.0% |
| Rally | 2006-05-05 | 2006-05-19 | 11 | $14.92 | $19.19 | +28.6% | +31,775.7% | -4.4% | +33.0% |
| Drawdown | 2006-05-19 | 2006-06-22 | 24 | $19.19 | $14.84 | -22.7% | -93.3% | -1.7% | -21.0% |
| Rally | 2006-06-22 | 2007-06-05 | 240 | $14.84 | $38.41 | +158.8% | +171.4% | +22.9% | +135.9% |
| Drawdown | 2007-06-05 | 2007-09-12 | 70 | $38.41 | $27.56 | -28.2% | -69.7% | -3.9% | -24.4% |
| Rally | 2007-09-12 | 2007-11-14 | 45 | $27.56 | $34.98 | +26.9% | +280.0% | -0.1% | +27.0% |
| Drawdown | 2007-11-14 | 2008-07-15 | 165 | $34.98 | $21.18 | -39.5% | -53.5% | -17.4% | -22.1% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2008-09-03 | 36 | $21.18 | $29.11 | +37.4% | +825.9% | +4.9% | +32.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-03 | 2008-10-24 | 38 | $29.11 | $18.41 | -36.8% | -95.2% | -31.2% | -5.5% |
| Rally | 2008-10-24 | 2008-12-08 | 31 | $18.41 | $22.26 | +20.9% | +368.7% | +3.8% | +17.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-08 | 2009-02-17 | 47 | $22.26 | $17.12 | -23.1% | -75.5% | -13.2% | -9.8% |
| Rally | 2009-02-17 | 2009-10-01 | 159 | $17.12 | $28.51 | +66.5% | +124.3% | +30.5% | +36.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-10-01 | 2011-09-26 | 501 | $28.51 | $16.51 | -42.1% | -24.0% | +12.9% | -55.0% |
| Rally | 2011-09-26 | 2012-02-27 | 107 | $16.51 | $25.41 | +53.9% | +176.0% | +17.6% | +36.3% |
| Drawdown | 2012-02-27 | 2012-10-12 | 159 | $25.41 | $19.15 | -24.6% | -36.1% | +4.5% | -29.1% |
| Rally | 2012-10-12 | 2016-04-19 | 873 | $19.15 | $35.62 | +86.0% | +19.6% | +47.1% | +39.0% |
| Drawdown | 2016-04-19 | 2018-06-22 | 546 | $35.62 | $26.63 | -25.2% | -12.6% | +31.1% | -56.4% |
| Rally | 2018-06-22 | 2020-02-05 | 402 | $26.63 | $49.08 | +84.3% | +46.7% | +21.0% | +63.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-05 | 2020-03-23 | 34 | $49.08 | $38.51 | -21.6% | -83.5% | -32.9% | +11.4% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2021-10-21 | 400 | $38.51 | $79.10 | +105.4% | +57.4% | +103.4% | +2.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-10-21 | 2022-10-13 | 246 | $79.10 | $53.96 | -31.8% | -32.4% | -19.3% | -12.4% |
| Rally | 2022-10-13 | 2023-05-23 | 151 | $53.96 | $76.72 | +42.2% | +79.9% | +13.0% | +29.2% |
| Drawdown | 2023-05-23 | 2024-01-19 | 168 | $76.72 | $61.23 | -20.2% | -28.7% | +16.7% | -36.9% |
| Rally | 2024-01-19 | 2025-07-07 | 364 | $61.23 | $214.62 | +250.5% | +138.3% | +28.7% | +221.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-07-07 | 2025-09-03 | 42 | $214.62 | $167.86 | -21.8% | -77.1% | +3.5% | -25.3% |
| Rally | 2025-09-03 | 2025-10-03 | 23 | $167.86 | $228.59 | +36.2% | +2,847.7% | +4.1% | +32.0% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-03 | 2025-11-21 | 35 | $228.59 | $172.05 | -24.7% | -87.1% | -1.7% | -23.1% |
| Rally | 2025-11-21 | 2026-01-14 | 33 | $172.05 | $220.76 | +28.3% | +571.2% | +4.9% | +23.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-14 | 2026-03-24 | 50 | $220.76 | $149.78 | -32.2% | -85.8% | -5.3% | -26.8% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-03-24 | 2026-11-06 | 160 | $149.78 | $228.80 | +52.8% | +94.9% | +12.5% | +40.2% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.