Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2006-06-16 | 2007-07-04 | 268 | $30.31 | $62.29 | +105.5% | +96.9% | +21.8% | +83.7% |
| Drawdown | 2007-07-04 | 2007-12-24 | 124 | $62.29 | $46.20 | -25.8% | -45.5% | -1.9% | -24.0% |
| Rally | 2007-12-24 | 2008-03-05 | 50 | $46.20 | $56.79 | +22.9% | +183.1% | -10.9% | +33.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-03-05 | 2008-07-15 | 92 | $56.79 | $32.34 | -43.1% | -78.6% | -8.9% | -34.2% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2008-08-11 | 20 | $32.34 | $43.03 | +33.1% | +3,564.5% | +7.4% | +25.6% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-11 | 2008-10-10 | 45 | $43.03 | $31.30 | -27.3% | -83.2% | -31.1% | +3.8% |
| Rally | 2008-10-10 | 2008-10-14 | 3 | $31.30 | $37.60 | +20.1% | +482,387,189.4% | +11.0% | +9.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-14 | 2008-10-28 | 11 | $37.60 | $28.23 | -24.9% | -99.9% | -5.8% | -19.2% |
| Rally | 2008-10-28 | 2008-11-04 | 6 | $28.23 | $36.73 | +30.1% | +6,374,672.2% | +6.9% | +23.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-21 | 14 | $36.73 | $26.82 | -27.0% | -99.7% | -20.5% | -6.5% |
| Rally | 2008-11-21 | 2009-01-06 | 30 | $26.82 | $35.60 | +32.7% | +978.8% | +16.8% | +15.9% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-06 | 2009-03-02 | 40 | $35.60 | $25.01 | -29.8% | -89.2% | -25.0% | -4.7% |
| Rally | 2009-03-02 | 2011-05-31 | 578 | $25.01 | $49.71 | +98.8% | +34.9% | +91.9% | +6.9% |
| Drawdown | 2011-05-31 | 2011-11-23 | 127 | $49.71 | $37.18 | -25.2% | -43.8% | -13.6% | -11.6% |
| Rally | 2011-11-23 | 2015-10-23 | 1,001 | $37.18 | $95.89 | +157.9% | +26.9% | +78.6% | +79.3% |
| Drawdown | 2015-10-23 | 2016-10-07 | 247 | $95.89 | $71.49 | -25.4% | -25.9% | +3.8% | -29.2% |
| Rally | 2016-10-07 | 2018-07-06 | 446 | $71.49 | $175.79 | +145.9% | +66.3% | +28.1% | +117.8% |
| Drawdown | 2018-07-06 | 2019-05-10 | 215 | $175.79 | $134.64 | -23.4% | -26.8% | +4.4% | -27.8% |
| Rally | 2019-05-10 | 2019-11-26 | 143 | $134.64 | $161.88 | +20.2% | +38.4% | +9.0% | +11.2% |
| Drawdown | 2019-11-26 | 2020-03-17 | 78 | $161.88 | $64.55 | -60.1% | -94.9% | -19.5% | -40.7% |
| Rally | 2020-03-17 | 2020-03-26 | 8 | $64.55 | $96.58 | +49.6% | +32,496,175.8% | +4.0% | +45.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-26 | 2020-05-15 | 34 | $96.58 | $64.46 | -33.3% | -95.0% | +8.9% | -42.1% |
| Rally | 2020-05-15 | 2020-06-08 | 17 | $64.46 | $101.81 | +57.9% | +87,400.8% | +12.9% | +45.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-08 | 2020-07-31 | 40 | $101.81 | $72.07 | -29.2% | -88.6% | +1.2% | -30.4% |
| Rally | 2020-07-31 | 2021-06-14 | 223 | $72.07 | $114.06 | +58.3% | +68.0% | +30.1% | +28.2% |
| Drawdown | 2021-06-14 | 2021-09-10 | 65 | $114.06 | $86.89 | -23.8% | -65.2% | +4.8% | -28.6% |
| Rally | 2021-09-10 | 2022-04-20 | 157 | $86.89 | $132.21 | +52.2% | +96.2% | +0.0% | +52.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-20 | 2022-07-05 | 55 | $132.21 | $105.14 | -20.5% | -65.0% | -14.1% | -6.4% |
| Rally | 2022-07-05 | 2022-12-01 | 108 | $105.14 | $134.28 | +27.7% | +77.0% | +6.4% | +21.3% |
| Drawdown | 2022-12-01 | 2023-10-20 | 228 | $134.28 | $93.40 | -30.4% | -33.1% | +3.6% | -34.1% |
| Rally | 2023-10-20 | 2024-06-06 | 159 | $93.40 | $121.95 | +30.6% | +52.6% | +26.7% | +3.8% |
| Drawdown | 2024-06-06 | 2025-04-07 | 215 | $121.95 | $88.03 | -27.8% | -31.8% | -5.4% | -22.4% |
| Rally | 2025-04-07 | 2025-12-12 | 177 | $88.03 | $128.31 | +45.8% | +71.0% | +34.9% | +10.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-12-12 | 2026-04-29 | 94 | $128.31 | $98.13 | -23.5% | -51.3% | +4.5% | -28.0% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-04-29 | 2026-11-06 | 137 | $98.13 | $117.10 | +19.3% | +38.4% | +3.4% | +16.0% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.