Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 1990-04-24 | 1991-12-12 | 12 | $4.73 | $2.36 | -50.2% | -100.0% | +15.5% | -65.6% |
| Rally | 1991-12-12 | 1992-06-22 | 130 | $2.36 | $3.64 | +54.5% | +132.4% | +5.7% | +48.8% |
| Drawdown | 1992-06-22 | 1992-10-07 | 76 | $3.64 | $2.88 | -20.8% | -53.8% | +0.2% | -21.0% |
| Rally | 1992-10-07 | 1994-02-16 | 342 | $2.88 | $5.37 | +86.3% | +58.2% | +17.0% | +69.4% |
| Drawdown | 1994-02-16 | 1994-06-22 | 84 | $5.37 | $3.72 | -30.7% | -66.8% | -4.2% | -26.6% |
| Rally | 1994-06-22 | 1994-08-08 | 28 | $3.72 | $4.55 | +22.3% | +509.9% | +1.1% | +21.2% |
| Drawdown | 1994-08-08 | 1995-03-23 | 140 | $4.55 | $3.45 | -24.1% | -39.2% | +8.3% | -32.4% |
| Rally | 1995-03-23 | 1995-05-16 | 34 | $3.45 | $4.48 | +29.9% | +595.8% | +6.5% | +23.4% |
| Drawdown | 1995-05-16 | 1995-12-21 | 144 | $4.48 | $2.85 | -36.5% | -54.8% | +15.6% | -52.1% |
| Rally | 1995-12-21 | 1996-02-27 | 47 | $2.85 | $5.48 | +92.4% | +3,241.2% | +6.0% | +86.4% |
| Drawdown | 1996-02-27 | 1996-04-09 | 29 | $5.48 | $4.26 | -22.2% | -88.7% | -0.8% | -21.4% |
| Rally | 1996-04-09 | 1997-03-11 | 230 | $4.26 | $13.81 | +224.0% | +262.5% | +26.3% | +197.6% |
| Drawdown | 1997-03-11 | 1997-06-02 | 54 | $13.81 | $9.28 | -32.8% | -84.4% | +4.3% | -37.1% |
| Rally | 1997-06-02 | 1998-07-01 | 270 | $9.28 | $19.25 | +107.5% | +97.7% | +35.7% | +71.8% |
| Drawdown | 1998-07-01 | 1998-10-05 | 67 | $19.25 | $11.61 | -39.7% | -85.1% | -13.9% | -25.8% |
| Rally | 1998-10-05 | 1998-12-23 | 57 | $11.61 | $19.73 | +70.0% | +944.3% | +24.3% | +45.7% |
| Drawdown | 1998-12-23 | 1999-03-23 | 61 | $19.73 | $7.99 | -59.5% | -97.6% | +2.7% | -62.2% |
| Rally | 1999-03-23 | 2000-02-17 | 232 | $7.99 | $14.85 | +85.8% | +96.0% | +10.0% | +75.8% |
| Drawdown | 2000-02-17 | 2000-04-18 | 44 | $14.85 | $10.87 | -26.8% | -83.2% | +3.8% | -30.6% |
| Rally | 2000-04-18 | 2002-05-21 | 526 | $10.87 | $29.77 | +173.7% | +62.0% | -25.1% | +198.8% |
| Drawdown | 2002-05-21 | 2003-02-26 | 199 | $29.77 | $14.89 | -50.0% | -58.4% | -23.4% | -26.6% |
| Rally | 2003-02-26 | 2007-07-03 | 1,114 | $14.89 | $64.43 | +332.7% | +39.3% | +84.3% | +248.5% |
| Drawdown | 2007-07-03 | 2009-04-30 | 464 | $64.43 | $24.29 | -62.3% | -41.1% | -42.8% | -19.5% |
| Rally | 2009-04-30 | 2011-05-27 | 534 | $24.29 | $59.00 | +142.9% | +52.0% | +52.5% | +90.4% |
| Drawdown | 2011-05-27 | 2011-12-27 | 152 | $59.00 | $45.48 | -22.9% | -35.0% | -4.9% | -18.0% |
| Rally | 2011-12-27 | 2014-07-11 | 642 | $45.48 | $101.48 | +123.1% | +37.0% | +55.5% | +67.6% |
| Drawdown | 2014-07-11 | 2014-10-07 | 62 | $101.48 | $78.35 | -22.8% | -65.1% | -1.7% | -21.1% |
| Rally | 2014-10-07 | 2015-02-18 | 94 | $78.35 | $110.51 | +41.0% | +151.4% | +8.5% | +32.5% |
| Drawdown | 2015-02-18 | 2016-02-08 | 248 | $110.51 | $76.30 | -31.0% | -31.4% | -11.7% | -19.2% |
| Rally | 2016-02-08 | 2018-07-17 | 625 | $76.30 | $153.75 | +101.5% | +32.6% | +51.6% | +49.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-07-17 | 2019-01-03 | 120 | $153.75 | $104.85 | -31.8% | -55.2% | -12.9% | -18.9% |
| Rally | 2019-01-03 | 2019-02-28 | 41 | $104.85 | $132.30 | +26.2% | +317.4% | +13.8% | +12.4% |
| Drawdown | 2019-02-28 | 2019-05-31 | 64 | $132.30 | $101.57 | -23.2% | -64.7% | -1.2% | -22.1% |
| Rally | 2019-05-31 | 2019-09-05 | 70 | $101.57 | $127.30 | +25.3% | +125.5% | +8.1% | +17.2% |
| Drawdown | 2019-09-05 | 2020-03-18 | 137 | $127.30 | $57.47 | -54.9% | -76.8% | -19.4% | -35.4% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2020-04-08 | 16 | $57.47 | $76.02 | +32.3% | +8,093.3% | +14.7% | +17.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-08 | 2020-05-14 | 24 | $76.02 | $58.47 | -23.1% | -93.6% | +3.7% | -26.8% |
| Rally | 2020-05-14 | 2020-06-08 | 18 | $58.47 | $88.66 | +51.6% | +33,871.4% | +13.3% | +38.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-08 | 2020-10-29 | 104 | $88.66 | $63.74 | -28.1% | -55.0% | +2.4% | -30.5% |
| Rally | 2020-10-29 | 2022-06-07 | 413 | $63.74 | $154.81 | +142.9% | +71.8% | +25.7% | +117.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-06-07 | 2022-09-28 | 82 | $154.81 | $109.42 | -29.3% | -65.6% | -10.6% | -18.7% |
| Rally | 2022-09-28 | 2024-05-16 | 417 | $109.42 | $201.39 | +84.1% | +44.6% | +42.4% | +41.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-05-16 | 2024-07-23 | 49 | $201.39 | $157.05 | -22.0% | -72.2% | +4.9% | -26.9% |
| Rally | 2024-07-23 | 2026-02-20 | 405 | $157.05 | $347.46 | +121.2% | +63.9% | +24.4% | +96.9% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-02-20 | 2026-11-06 | 183 | $347.46 | $301.00 | -13.4% | -17.9% | +6.8% | -20.1% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.