Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 1996-03-20 | 1996-09-12 | 112 | $2,026.27 | $797.74 | -60.6% | +3.3% | -63.9% |
| Rally | 1996-09-12 | 1997-02-26 | 113 | $797.74 | $1,053.02 | +32.0% | +20.0% | +12.0% |
| Drawdown | 1997-02-26 | 1997-09-01 | 126 | $1,053.02 | $414.83 | -60.6% | +11.6% | -72.2% |
| Rally | 1997-09-01 | 1997-09-09 | 7 | $414.83 | $542.47 | +30.8% | +3.8% | +27.0% |
| Drawdown | 1997-09-09 | 1997-10-28 | 35 | $542.47 | $271.23 | -50.0% | -1.3% | -48.7% |
| Rally | 1997-10-28 | 1997-11-03 | 5 | $271.23 | $335.05 | +23.5% | +1.9% | +21.7% |
| Drawdown | 1997-11-03 | 1997-12-15 | 30 | $335.05 | $143.59 | -57.1% | +2.6% | -59.7% |
| Rally | 1997-12-15 | 1998-01-07 | 14 | $143.59 | $207.41 | +44.4% | +0.1% | +44.4% |
| Drawdown | 1998-01-07 | 1998-01-08 | 2 | $207.41 | $159.55 | -23.1% | -0.8% | -22.3% |
| Rally | 1998-01-08 | 1998-04-15 | 64 | $159.55 | $478.65 | +200.0% | +17.1% | +182.9% |
| Drawdown | 1998-04-15 | 1998-05-18 | 21 | $478.65 | $223.37 | -53.3% | -1.2% | -52.1% |
| Rally | 1998-05-18 | 1998-05-26 | 5 | $223.37 | $319.10 | +42.9% | -1.1% | +43.9% |
| Drawdown | 1998-05-26 | 1998-06-29 | 25 | $319.10 | $239.32 | -25.0% | +4.1% | -29.1% |
| Rally | 1998-06-29 | 1998-06-30 | 2 | $239.32 | $319.10 | +33.3% | -0.4% | +33.7% |
| Drawdown | 1998-06-30 | 1998-09-21 | 52 | $319.10 | $127.64 | -60.0% | -9.7% | -50.3% |
| Rally | 1998-09-21 | 1998-10-12 | 16 | $127.64 | $223.37 | +75.0% | -2.6% | +77.6% |
| Drawdown | 1998-10-12 | 1998-11-03 | 15 | $223.37 | $143.59 | -35.7% | +11.3% | -47.1% |
| Rally | 1998-11-03 | 1998-11-24 | 14 | $143.59 | $414.83 | +188.9% | +6.5% | +182.4% |
| Drawdown | 1998-11-24 | 1998-12-01 | 6 | $414.83 | $287.19 | -30.8% | -0.7% | -30.1% |
| Rally | 1998-12-01 | 1999-01-07 | 23 | $287.19 | $366.96 | +27.8% | +8.0% | +19.7% |
| Drawdown | 1999-01-07 | 1999-03-17 | 37 | $366.96 | $223.37 | -39.1% | +2.2% | -41.3% |
| Rally | 1999-03-17 | 1999-06-14 | 57 | $223.37 | $1,068.98 | +378.6% | -0.3% | +378.9% |
| Drawdown | 1999-06-14 | 1999-09-24 | 72 | $1,068.98 | $526.51 | -50.7% | -1.3% | -49.5% |
| Rally | 1999-09-24 | 1999-11-16 | 38 | $526.51 | $845.61 | +60.6% | +11.2% | +49.4% |
| Drawdown | 1999-11-16 | 2001-03-23 | 313 | $845.61 | $382.92 | -54.7% | -19.7% | -35.0% |
| Rally | 2001-03-23 | 2001-06-29 | 62 | $382.92 | $829.65 | +116.7% | +7.4% | +109.2% |
| Drawdown | 2001-06-29 | 2001-11-30 | 104 | $829.65 | $574.38 | -30.8% | -6.9% | -23.8% |
| Rally | 2001-11-30 | 2002-04-15 | 76 | $574.38 | $1,037.07 | +80.6% | -3.2% | +83.8% |
| Drawdown | 2002-04-15 | 2002-05-24 | 27 | $1,037.07 | $813.70 | -21.5% | -1.7% | -19.8% |
| Rally | 2002-05-24 | 2002-06-12 | 14 | $813.70 | $1,021.11 | +25.5% | -5.9% | +31.4% |
| Drawdown | 2002-06-12 | 2002-10-15 | 90 | $1,021.11 | $608.80 | -40.4% | -13.6% | -26.8% |
| Rally | 2002-10-15 | 2002-10-17 | 3 | $608.80 | $756.89 | +24.3% | -0.2% | +24.6% |
| Drawdown | 2002-10-17 | 2002-10-30 | 10 | $756.89 | $592.35 | -21.7% | +1.3% | -23.0% |
| Rally | 2002-10-30 | 2003-01-01 | 46 | $592.35 | $872.07 | +47.2% | -1.2% | +48.4% |
| Drawdown | 2003-01-01 | 2003-02-07 | 28 | $872.07 | $658.17 | -24.5% | -5.7% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2003-02-07 | 2003-10-10 | 176 | $658.17 | $1,662.74 | +152.6% | +25.1% | +127.5% |
| Drawdown | 2003-10-10 | 2003-11-19 | 29 | $1,662.74 | $1,281.69 | -22.9% | +0.4% | -23.3% |
| Rally | 2003-11-19 | 2004-01-14 | 41 | $1,281.69 | $1,749.34 | +36.5% | +8.4% | +28.0% |
| Drawdown | 2004-01-14 | 2004-07-01 | 122 | $1,749.34 | $1,247.05 | -28.7% | -0.1% | -28.6% |
| Rally | 2004-07-01 | 2005-10-12 | 325 | $1,247.05 | $3,340.39 | +167.9% | +4.3% | +163.5% |
| Drawdown | 2005-10-12 | 2005-11-16 | 23 | $3,340.39 | $2,327.01 | -30.3% | +4.5% | -34.9% |
| Rally | 2005-11-16 | 2006-02-13 | 64 | $2,327.01 | $2,890.00 | +24.2% | +2.6% | +21.6% |
| Drawdown | 2006-02-13 | 2006-07-19 | 113 | $2,890.00 | $1,670.77 | -42.2% | -0.2% | -41.9% |
| Rally | 2006-07-19 | 2007-06-20 | 234 | $1,670.77 | $2,758.72 | +65.1% | +20.1% | +45.0% |
| Drawdown | 2007-06-20 | 2008-09-17 | 305 | $2,758.72 | $1,238.68 | -55.1% | -23.6% | -31.5% |
| Rally | 2008-09-17 | 2008-09-29 | 9 | $1,238.68 | $1,678.22 | +35.5% | -4.3% | +39.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-29 | 2008-10-29 | 19 | $1,678.22 | $903.04 | -46.2% | -15.9% | -30.3% |
| Rally | 2008-10-29 | 2008-11-05 | 6 | $903.04 | $1,238.68 | +37.2% | +2.4% | +34.7% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-05 | 2008-11-25 | 15 | $1,238.68 | $831.12 | -32.9% | -10.0% | -22.9% |
| Rally | 2008-11-25 | 2010-04-30 | 351 | $831.12 | $2,577.98 | +210.2% | +38.4% | +171.8% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-30 | 2010-05-25 | 17 | $2,577.98 | $2,005.10 | -22.2% | -9.5% | -12.7% |
| Rally | 2010-05-25 | 2010-10-05 | 89 | $2,005.10 | $5,605.04 | +179.5% | +8.1% | +171.5% |
| Drawdown | 2010-10-05 | 2011-02-01 | 82 | $5,605.04 | $3,778.21 | -32.6% | +12.7% | -45.2% |
| Rally | 2011-02-01 | 2011-07-28 | 122 | $3,778.21 | $7,754.83 | +105.3% | -0.5% | +105.8% |
| Drawdown | 2011-07-28 | 2012-06-19 | 222 | $7,754.83 | $4,443.31 | -42.7% | +4.4% | -47.1% |
| Rally | 2012-06-19 | 2013-04-16 | 202 | $4,443.31 | $7,655.60 | +72.3% | +15.9% | +56.3% |
| Drawdown | 2013-04-16 | 2013-06-10 | 38 | $7,655.60 | $5,954.35 | -22.2% | +4.3% | -26.6% |
| Rally | 2013-06-10 | 2013-10-28 | 94 | $5,954.35 | $7,216.05 | +21.2% | +7.3% | +13.9% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-28 | 2013-11-26 | 21 | $7,216.05 | $5,369.09 | -25.6% | +2.3% | -27.9% |
| Rally | 2013-11-26 | 2014-09-22 | 198 | $5,369.09 | $7,381.76 | +37.5% | +10.6% | +26.9% |
| Drawdown | 2014-09-22 | 2014-10-24 | 25 | $7,381.76 | $5,514.61 | -25.3% | -1.5% | -23.8% |
| Rally | 2014-10-24 | 2015-01-21 | 60 | $5,514.61 | $7,468.61 | +35.4% | +3.4% | +32.0% |
| Drawdown | 2015-01-21 | 2015-08-28 | 148 | $7,468.61 | $4,391.52 | -41.2% | -2.1% | -39.1% |
| Rally | 2015-08-28 | 2016-10-19 | 281 | $4,391.52 | $6,444.66 | +46.8% | +7.8% | +38.9% |
| Drawdown | 2016-10-19 | 2018-12-20 | 559 | $6,444.66 | $3,154.00 | -51.1% | +15.1% | -66.1% |
| Rally | 2018-12-20 | 2019-04-23 | 89 | $3,154.00 | $5,211.36 | +65.2% | +18.9% | +46.3% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-23 | 2020-04-07 | 246 | $5,211.36 | $2,050.95 | -60.6% | -9.3% | -51.3% |
| Rally | 2020-04-07 | 2020-06-30 | 54 | $2,050.95 | $3,008.05 | +46.7% | +16.6% | +30.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-30 | 2020-10-08 | 69 | $3,008.05 | $2,123.87 | -29.4% | +11.2% | -40.6% |
| Rally | 2020-10-08 | 2021-05-18 | 145 | $2,123.87 | $4,174.82 | +96.6% | +19.8% | +76.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-05-18 | 2021-07-09 | 37 | $4,174.82 | $3,199.48 | -23.4% | +5.9% | -29.2% |
| Rally | 2021-07-09 | 2022-06-07 | 220 | $3,199.48 | $7,565.71 | +136.5% | -4.8% | +141.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-06-07 | 2022-10-21 | 98 | $7,565.71 | $4,345.99 | -42.6% | -9.8% | -32.8% |
| Rally | 2022-10-21 | 2022-11-28 | 27 | $4,345.99 | $5,766.98 | +32.7% | +5.6% | +27.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-11-28 | 2023-04-18 | 98 | $5,766.98 | $4,336.77 | -24.8% | +4.8% | -29.6% |
| Rally | 2023-04-18 | 2023-07-28 | 61 | $4,336.77 | $5,967.57 | +37.6% | +10.3% | +27.3% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-28 | 2025-04-09 | 404 | $5,967.57 | $3,009.26 | -49.6% | +19.1% | -68.7% |
| Rally | 2025-04-09 | 2025-05-23 | 29 | $3,009.26 | $3,971.08 | +32.0% | +6.3% | +25.6% |
| Drawdown | 2025-05-23 | 2025-08-20 | 59 | $3,971.08 | $2,951.04 | -25.7% | +10.2% | -35.9% |
| Rally | 2025-08-20 | 2026-01-14 | 106 | $2,951.04 | $3,642.54 | +23.4% | +8.3% | +15.1% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-14 | 2026-06-08 | 96 | $3,642.54 | $2,727.04 | -25.1% | +6.9% | -32.1% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-06-08 | 2026-11-06 | 110 | $2,727.04 | $3,100.00 | +13.7% | +0.2% | +13.5% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.