Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2018-08-20 | 2018-11-07 | 58 | $84.80 | $452.00 | +433.0% | -1.5% | +434.5% |
| Drawdown | 2018-11-07 | 2018-11-21 | 11 | $452.00 | $341.00 | -24.6% | -5.8% | -18.7% |
| Rally | 2018-11-21 | 2019-01-10 | 37 | $341.00 | $486.00 | +42.5% | -2.0% | +44.5% |
| Drawdown | 2019-01-10 | 2019-03-11 | 43 | $486.00 | $280.00 | -42.4% | +7.2% | -49.6% |
| Rally | 2019-03-11 | 2019-08-14 | 113 | $280.00 | $468.00 | +67.1% | +2.1% | +65.1% |
| Drawdown | 2019-08-14 | 2019-09-20 | 28 | $468.00 | $332.00 | -29.1% | +5.3% | -34.4% |
| Rally | 2019-09-20 | 2019-10-09 | 14 | $332.00 | $492.00 | +48.2% | -2.4% | +50.6% |
| Drawdown | 2019-10-09 | 2019-10-30 | 16 | $492.00 | $284.00 | -42.3% | +4.4% | -46.6% |
| Rally | 2019-10-30 | 2019-11-01 | 3 | $284.00 | $341.00 | +20.1% | +0.7% | +19.4% |
| Drawdown | 2019-11-01 | 2019-11-08 | 6 | $341.00 | $140.00 | -58.9% | +0.9% | -59.8% |
| Rally | 2019-11-08 | 2019-11-13 | 4 | $140.00 | $238.00 | +70.0% | +0.0% | +70.0% |
| Drawdown | 2019-11-13 | 2020-12-11 | 263 | $238.00 | $50.00 | -79.0% | +18.4% | -97.4% |
| Rally | 2020-12-11 | 2020-12-15 | 3 | $50.00 | $68.00 | +36.0% | +0.9% | +35.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-12-15 | 2021-01-05 | 12 | $68.00 | $51.00 | -25.0% | +0.9% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 2021-01-05 | 2021-01-15 | 9 | $51.00 | $62.00 | +21.6% | +1.1% | +20.5% |
| Drawdown | 2021-01-15 | 2024-05-17 | 807 | $62.00 | $4.00 | -93.5% | +40.7% | -134.3% |
| Rally | 2024-05-17 | 2024-05-20 | 2 | $4.00 | $5.00 | +25.0% | +0.1% | +24.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-05-20 | 2024-05-21 | 2 | $5.00 | $4.00 | -20.0% | +0.3% | -20.3% |
| Rally | 2024-05-21 | 2024-05-28 | 4 | $4.00 | $5.00 | +25.0% | -0.3% | +25.3% |
| Drawdown | 2024-05-28 | 2024-05-29 | 2 | $5.00 | $4.00 | -20.0% | -0.7% | -19.3% |
| Rally | 2024-05-29 | 2024-05-30 | 2 | $4.00 | $5.00 | +25.0% | -0.6% | +25.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-05-30 | 2024-06-04 | 4 | $5.00 | $4.00 | -20.0% | +1.1% | -21.1% |
| Rally | 2024-06-04 | 2024-06-05 | 2 | $4.00 | $5.00 | +25.0% | +1.2% | +23.8% |
| Drawdown | 2024-06-05 | 2024-06-10 | 4 | $5.00 | $4.00 | -20.0% | +0.1% | -20.1% |
| Rally | 2024-06-10 | 2024-08-14 | 46 | $4.00 | $9.00 | +125.0% | +1.8% | +123.2% |
| Drawdown | 2024-08-14 | 2024-08-21 | 6 | $9.00 | $6.00 | -33.3% | +3.0% | -36.4% |
| Rally | 2024-08-21 | 2024-08-29 | 7 | $6.00 | $9.00 | +50.0% | -0.5% | +50.5% |
| Drawdown | 2024-08-29 | 2024-09-02 | 3 | $9.00 | $7.00 | -22.2% | +1.0% | -23.2% |
| Rally | 2024-09-02 | 2024-09-12 | 9 | $7.00 | $9.00 | +28.6% | -0.9% | +29.5% |
| Drawdown | 2024-09-12 | 2024-12-04 | 58 | $9.00 | $5.00 | -44.4% | +8.8% | -53.2% |
| Rally | 2024-12-04 | 2025-01-14 | 26 | $5.00 | $12.00 | +140.0% | -4.0% | +144.0% |
| Drawdown | 2025-01-14 | 2025-01-30 | 10 | $12.00 | $7.00 | -41.7% | +3.9% | -45.6% |
| Rally | 2025-01-30 | 2025-02-12 | 10 | $7.00 | $9.00 | +28.6% | -0.3% | +28.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-12 | 2025-03-03 | 14 | $9.00 | $7.00 | -22.2% | -3.3% | -18.9% |
| Rally | 2025-03-03 | 2025-03-20 | 14 | $7.00 | $13.00 | +85.7% | -3.2% | +88.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-20 | 2025-04-23 | 17 | $13.00 | $9.00 | -30.8% | -5.1% | -25.7% |
| Rally | 2025-04-23 | 2025-08-29 | 85 | $9.00 | $38.00 | +322.2% | +20.2% | +302.1% |
| Drawdown | 2025-08-29 | 2025-09-08 | 7 | $38.00 | $28.00 | -26.3% | +0.5% | -26.9% |
| Rally | 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-19 | 10 | $28.00 | $36.00 | +28.6% | +2.6% | +26.0% |
| Drawdown | 2025-09-19 | 2025-11-26 | 49 | $36.00 | $22.00 | -38.9% | +2.2% | -41.1% |
| Rally | 2025-11-26 | 2025-12-05 | 8 | $22.00 | $36.00 | +63.6% | +0.8% | +62.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-23 | 13 | $36.00 | $26.00 | -27.8% | +0.6% | -28.4% |
| Rally | 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-16 | 19 | $26.00 | $39.00 | +50.0% | +0.4% | +49.6% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-16 | 2026-03-16 | 40 | $39.00 | $22.00 | -43.6% | -3.5% | -40.1% |
| Rally | 2026-03-16 | 2026-04-16 | 18 | $22.00 | $28.00 | +27.3% | +5.1% | +22.2% |
| Drawdown | 2026-04-16 | 2026-06-08 | 38 | $28.00 | $14.00 | -50.0% | +5.2% | -55.2% |
| Rally | 2026-06-08 | 2026-09-28 | 81 | $14.00 | $29.00 | +107.1% | +3.8% | +103.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-09-28 | 2026-10-01 | 4 | $29.00 | $19.00 | -34.5% | -0.2% | -34.3% |
| Rally | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-09 | 7 | $19.00 | $24.00 | +26.3% | +1.9% | +24.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-19 | 7 | $24.00 | $18.00 | -25.0% | -1.5% | -23.5% |
| Rally | 2026-10-19 | 2026-10-27 | 7 | $18.00 | $35.00 | +94.4% | +0.4% | +94.0% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-10-27 | 2026-11-06 | 9 | $35.00 | $28.00 | -20.0% | -4.8% | -15.2% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.