Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1980-04-03 | 1980-10-06 | 129 | $1.40 | $2.31 | +65.5% | +29.0% | +36.6% |
| Drawdown | 1980-10-06 | 1981-01-09 | 66 | $2.31 | $1.69 | -26.9% | +1.3% | -28.2% |
| Rally | 1981-01-09 | 1981-03-23 | 51 | $1.69 | $2.06 | +21.8% | +1.7% | +20.2% |
| Drawdown | 1981-03-23 | 1982-08-16 | 355 | $2.06 | $1.03 | -50.1% | -23.3% | -26.8% |
| Rally | 1982-08-16 | 1982-11-11 | 63 | $1.03 | $1.73 | +68.2% | +36.2% | +32.0% |
| Drawdown | 1982-11-11 | 1982-12-16 | 25 | $1.73 | $1.37 | -20.7% | -4.6% | -16.2% |
| Rally | 1982-12-16 | 1983-06-22 | 131 | $1.37 | $2.16 | +57.4% | +26.4% | +31.0% |
| Drawdown | 1983-06-22 | 1984-02-23 | 171 | $2.16 | $1.61 | -25.4% | -9.8% | -15.6% |
| Rally | 1984-02-23 | 1986-04-18 | 544 | $1.61 | $3.79 | +135.7% | +57.1% | +78.6% |
| Drawdown | 1986-04-18 | 1986-08-08 | 79 | $3.79 | $2.72 | -28.2% | -2.3% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 1986-08-08 | 1987-08-10 | 254 | $2.72 | $5.01 | +84.0% | +38.5% | +45.5% |
| Drawdown | 1987-08-10 | 1987-12-04 | 83 | $5.01 | $2.94 | -41.4% | -31.7% | -9.7% |
| Rally | 1987-12-04 | 1988-07-05 | 147 | $2.94 | $4.99 | +70.0% | +23.2% | +46.9% |
| Drawdown | 1988-07-05 | 1988-11-22 | 100 | $4.99 | $3.69 | -26.1% | -3.1% | -23.0% |
| Rally | 1988-11-22 | 1990-07-13 | 414 | $3.69 | $6.15 | +66.7% | +37.5% | +29.2% |
| Drawdown | 1990-07-13 | 1990-08-23 | 30 | $6.15 | $4.37 | -28.9% | -16.4% | -12.5% |
| Rally | 1990-08-23 | 1992-04-20 | 419 | $4.37 | $10.49 | +140.0% | +33.6% | +106.5% |
| Drawdown | 1992-04-20 | 1993-09-24 | 364 | $10.49 | $8.23 | -21.5% | +11.6% | -33.1% |
| Rally | 1993-09-24 | 1998-05-13 | 1,171 | $8.23 | $21.44 | +160.4% | +144.5% | +16.0% |
| Drawdown | 1998-05-13 | 1998-09-30 | 98 | $21.44 | $14.27 | -33.4% | -9.1% | -24.3% |
| Rally | 1998-09-30 | 1999-01-11 | 71 | $14.27 | $19.75 | +38.4% | +24.3% | +14.1% |
| Drawdown | 1999-01-11 | 1999-03-02 | 35 | $19.75 | $14.76 | -25.3% | -3.0% | -22.3% |
| Rally | 1999-03-02 | 1999-05-03 | 44 | $14.76 | $23.78 | +61.2% | +10.5% | +50.7% |
| Drawdown | 1999-05-03 | 1999-11-08 | 133 | $23.78 | $12.93 | -45.6% | +1.7% | -47.3% |
| Rally | 1999-11-08 | 2000-01-07 | 43 | $12.93 | $17.96 | +38.8% | +4.7% | +34.1% |
| Drawdown | 2000-01-07 | 2000-03-07 | 41 | $17.96 | $11.90 | -33.7% | -6.0% | -27.8% |
| Rally | 2000-03-07 | 2000-05-23 | 55 | $11.90 | $19.12 | +60.7% | +1.3% | +59.4% |
| Drawdown | 2000-05-23 | 2000-07-19 | 40 | $19.12 | $14.91 | -22.0% | +7.9% | -29.9% |
| Rally | 2000-07-19 | 2001-07-19 | 253 | $14.91 | $24.37 | +63.5% | -18.0% | +81.5% |
| Drawdown | 2001-07-19 | 2001-09-21 | 42 | $24.37 | $17.05 | -30.0% | -20.5% | -9.5% |
| Rally | 2001-09-21 | 2002-03-19 | 123 | $17.05 | $27.20 | +59.5% | +21.2% | +38.3% |
| Drawdown | 2002-03-19 | 2003-03-12 | 248 | $27.20 | $19.57 | -28.0% | -31.3% | +3.2% |
| Rally | 2003-03-12 | 2008-06-05 | 1,319 | $19.57 | $61.47 | +214.1% | +74.6% | +139.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-06-05 | 2008-10-27 | 101 | $61.47 | $27.72 | -54.9% | -39.5% | -15.4% |
| Rally | 2008-10-27 | 2008-11-04 | 7 | $27.72 | $35.77 | +29.1% | +18.5% | +10.6% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-20 | 13 | $35.77 | $24.41 | -31.8% | -25.2% | -6.6% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-01-06 | 31 | $24.41 | $35.08 | +43.7% | +24.2% | +19.5% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-06 | 2009-03-03 | 39 | $35.08 | $25.90 | -26.2% | -25.5% | -0.7% |
| Rally | 2009-03-03 | 2009-11-16 | 181 | $25.90 | $51.13 | +97.4% | +59.3% | +38.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-11-16 | 2010-06-30 | 156 | $51.13 | $39.88 | -22.0% | -7.1% | -14.9% |
| Rally | 2010-06-30 | 2011-07-07 | 258 | $39.88 | $61.62 | +54.5% | +31.3% | +23.2% |
| Drawdown | 2011-07-07 | 2011-10-03 | 62 | $61.62 | $46.90 | -23.9% | -18.8% | -5.1% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2015-03-02 | 857 | $46.90 | $109.76 | +134.1% | +92.6% | +41.4% |
| Drawdown | 2015-03-02 | 2016-01-25 | 228 | $109.76 | $82.66 | -24.7% | -11.3% | -13.3% |
| Rally | 2016-01-25 | 2020-02-14 | 1,023 | $82.66 | $217.16 | +162.7% | +80.1% | +82.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-14 | 2020-03-23 | 26 | $217.16 | $149.91 | -31.0% | -33.8% | +2.8% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2021-11-10 | 415 | $149.91 | $276.90 | +84.7% | +107.7% | -23.0% |
| Drawdown | 2021-11-10 | 2022-03-14 | 85 | $276.90 | $193.27 | -30.2% | -10.2% | -20.0% |
| Rally | 2022-03-14 | 2022-12-13 | 191 | $193.27 | $293.85 | +52.0% | -3.7% | +55.7% |
| Drawdown | 2022-12-13 | 2024-02-07 | 289 | $293.85 | $200.51 | -31.8% | +24.3% | -56.0% |
| Rally | 2024-02-07 | 2025-02-03 | 248 | $200.51 | $323.10 | +61.1% | +20.0% | +41.1% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-03 | 2025-04-08 | 46 | $323.10 | $239.05 | -26.0% | -16.9% | -9.1% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-08-22 | 95 | $239.05 | $289.63 | +21.2% | +29.8% | -8.6% |
| Drawdown | 2025-08-22 | 2025-12-09 | 76 | $289.63 | $224.78 | -22.4% | +5.8% | -28.2% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2025-12-09 | 2026-11-05 | 229 | $224.78 | $309.49 | +37.7% | +7.5% | +30.2% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.