Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2007-12-18 | 2008-01-09 | 12 | $160.81 | $212.30 | +32.0% | +34,066.7% | -3.2% | +35.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-01-09 | 2008-03-19 | 46 | $212.30 | $124.67 | -41.3% | -94.6% | -7.9% | -33.4% |
| Rally | 2008-03-19 | 2008-03-26 | 4 | $124.67 | $157.20 | +26.1% | +219,903,100.3% | +3.3% | +22.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-03-26 | 2008-06-18 | 59 | $157.20 | $92.15 | -41.4% | -89.8% | -0.2% | -41.1% |
| Rally | 2008-06-18 | 2008-07-01 | 10 | $92.15 | $112.93 | +22.5% | +16,703.7% | -4.0% | +26.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-07-01 | 2008-09-16 | 54 | $112.93 | $60.53 | -46.4% | -94.6% | -5.5% | -40.9% |
| Rally | 2008-09-16 | 2008-09-19 | 4 | $60.53 | $76.79 | +26.9% | +324,092,499.4% | +3.4% | +23.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-19 | 2009-04-06 | 130 | $76.79 | $45.17 | -41.2% | -64.2% | -33.4% | -7.7% |
| Rally | 2009-04-06 | 2009-10-05 | 125 | $45.17 | $118.18 | +161.6% | +595.1% | +24.5% | +137.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-10-05 | 2009-12-15 | 51 | $118.18 | $92.73 | -21.5% | -69.8% | +6.5% | -28.0% |
| Rally | 2009-12-15 | 2010-04-29 | 90 | $92.73 | $204.54 | +120.6% | +816.3% | +8.9% | +111.7% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-29 | 2010-05-25 | 18 | $204.54 | $126.36 | -38.2% | -99.9% | -11.0% | -27.2% |
| Rally | 2010-05-25 | 2010-11-09 | 114 | $126.36 | $292.45 | +131.4% | +539.2% | +13.0% | +118.5% |
| Drawdown | 2010-11-09 | 2011-02-16 | 66 | $292.45 | $210.20 | -28.1% | -71.7% | +10.1% | -38.3% |
| Rally | 2011-02-16 | 2011-09-09 | 138 | $210.20 | $407.10 | +93.7% | +234.3% | -13.6% | +107.3% |
| Drawdown | 2011-09-09 | 2011-10-04 | 18 | $407.10 | $314.57 | -22.7% | -97.3% | -2.6% | -20.1% |
| Rally | 2011-10-04 | 2012-03-21 | 120 | $314.57 | $582.89 | +85.3% | +265.2% | +24.8% | +60.5% |
| Drawdown | 2012-03-21 | 2012-09-06 | 114 | $582.89 | $388.73 | -33.3% | -59.2% | +2.1% | -35.4% |
| Rally | 2012-09-06 | 2013-03-21 | 132 | $388.73 | $1,058.48 | +172.3% | +576.9% | +7.9% | +164.4% |
| Drawdown | 2013-03-21 | 2013-07-09 | 76 | $1,058.48 | $639.72 | -39.6% | -81.2% | +6.9% | -46.5% |
| Rally | 2013-07-09 | 2013-08-15 | 23 | $639.72 | $773.39 | +20.9% | +699.7% | +0.5% | +20.4% |
| Drawdown | 2013-08-15 | 2013-09-06 | 17 | $773.39 | $439.21 | -43.2% | -100.0% | -0.4% | -42.8% |
| Rally | 2013-09-06 | 2013-10-24 | 33 | $439.21 | $658.82 | +50.0% | +2,111.5% | +5.9% | +44.1% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-24 | 2014-01-07 | 49 | $658.82 | $405.79 | -38.4% | -91.7% | +4.9% | -43.3% |
| Rally | 2014-01-07 | 2014-03-19 | 50 | $405.79 | $630.17 | +55.3% | +819.2% | +1.2% | +54.0% |
| Drawdown | 2014-03-19 | 2014-06-25 | 65 | $630.17 | $418.21 | -33.6% | -79.6% | +5.3% | -38.9% |
| Rally | 2014-06-25 | 2014-08-14 | 32 | $418.21 | $538.53 | +28.8% | +632.5% | -0.2% | +29.0% |
| Drawdown | 2014-08-14 | 2014-10-06 | 38 | $538.53 | $421.12 | -21.8% | -80.4% | +0.5% | -22.3% |
| Rally | 2014-10-06 | 2015-02-20 | 95 | $421.12 | $669.52 | +59.0% | +242.1% | +7.4% | +51.6% |
| Drawdown | 2015-02-20 | 2015-03-26 | 25 | $669.52 | $509.42 | -23.9% | -93.6% | -2.6% | -21.3% |
| Rally | 2015-03-26 | 2015-04-24 | 21 | $509.42 | $650.11 | +27.6% | +1,766.3% | +3.0% | +24.6% |
| Drawdown | 2015-04-24 | 2015-06-15 | 34 | $650.11 | $490.01 | -24.6% | -87.7% | -1.6% | -23.1% |
| Rally | 2015-06-15 | 2015-06-25 | 9 | $490.01 | $591.89 | +20.8% | +19,718.8% | +0.9% | +19.9% |
| Drawdown | 2015-06-25 | 2015-09-30 | 64 | $591.89 | $310.40 | -47.6% | -92.1% | -8.7% | -38.9% |
| Rally | 2015-09-30 | 2015-10-27 | 19 | $310.40 | $411.57 | +32.6% | +4,117.9% | +7.6% | +25.0% |
| Drawdown | 2015-10-27 | 2016-01-28 | 64 | $411.57 | $314.33 | -23.6% | -65.4% | -8.4% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 2016-01-28 | 2016-08-11 | 131 | $314.33 | $554.98 | +76.6% | +198.5% | +15.4% | +61.1% |
| Drawdown | 2016-08-11 | 2016-12-23 | 94 | $554.98 | $328.08 | -40.9% | -75.6% | +3.6% | -44.5% |
| Rally | 2016-12-23 | 2017-01-19 | 19 | $328.08 | $404.70 | +23.4% | +1,517.9% | 0.0% | +23.4% |
| Drawdown | 2017-01-19 | 2017-07-25 | 128 | $404.70 | $300.00 | -25.9% | -44.5% | +9.4% | -35.3% |
| Rally | 2017-07-25 | 2018-02-02 | 139 | $300.00 | $406.58 | +35.5% | +73.5% | +11.5% | +24.0% |
| Drawdown | 2018-02-02 | 2018-10-11 | 180 | $406.58 | $262.50 | -35.4% | -45.8% | -1.2% | -34.2% |
| Rally | 2018-10-11 | 2019-02-07 | 86 | $262.50 | $365.13 | +39.1% | +163.0% | -0.8% | +39.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-02-07 | 2020-03-24 | 290 | $365.13 | $90.79 | -75.1% | -70.2% | -9.6% | -65.6% |
| Rally | 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-06 | 9 | $90.79 | $132.24 | +45.7% | +3,739,867.2% | +8.8% | +36.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-06 | 2020-05-29 | 34 | $132.24 | $104.61 | -20.9% | -82.4% | +14.3% | -35.2% |
| Rally | 2020-05-29 | 2020-06-08 | 6 | $104.61 | $150.00 | +43.4% | +375,472,221.9% | +6.2% | +37.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-08 | 2020-10-02 | 81 | $150.00 | $108.55 | -27.6% | -63.4% | +3.6% | -31.2% |
| Rally | 2020-10-02 | 2020-12-21 | 53 | $108.55 | $284.21 | +161.8% | +9,615.6% | +10.3% | +151.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-12-21 | 2021-01-28 | 25 | $284.21 | $183.55 | -35.4% | -98.8% | +2.5% | -37.9% |
| Rally | 2021-01-28 | 2021-03-01 | 22 | $183.55 | $250.66 | +36.6% | +3,448.5% | +3.0% | +33.5% |
| Drawdown | 2021-03-01 | 2021-08-20 | 115 | $250.66 | $150.00 | -40.2% | -67.5% | +13.8% | -54.0% |
| Rally | 2021-08-20 | 2021-10-18 | 42 | $150.00 | $201.32 | +34.2% | +484.4% | +1.0% | +33.2% |
| Drawdown | 2021-10-18 | 2022-01-19 | 66 | $201.32 | $138.16 | -31.4% | -76.2% | +1.0% | -32.4% |
| Rally | 2022-01-19 | 2022-09-12 | 155 | $138.16 | $192.43 | +39.3% | +71.4% | -9.3% | +48.6% |
| Drawdown | 2022-09-12 | 2023-03-17 | 134 | $192.43 | $144.08 | -25.1% | -42.0% | -4.7% | -20.4% |
| Rally | 2023-03-17 | 2023-07-21 | 75 | $144.08 | $197.37 | +37.0% | +187.9% | +15.8% | +21.2% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-21 | 2024-06-27 | 221 | $197.37 | $123.36 | -37.5% | -41.5% | +20.9% | -58.4% |
| Rally | 2024-06-27 | 2024-09-17 | 58 | $123.36 | $258.55 | +109.6% | +2,391.1% | +2.8% | +106.8% |
| Drawdown | 2024-09-17 | 2025-04-09 | 132 | $258.55 | $96.71 | -62.6% | -84.7% | -3.2% | -59.4% |
| Rally | 2025-04-09 | 2025-05-21 | 27 | $96.71 | $151.97 | +57.1% | +6,693.4% | +7.1% | +50.0% |
| Drawdown | 2025-05-21 | 2025-06-23 | 20 | $151.97 | $119.41 | -21.4% | -95.2% | +3.1% | -24.5% |
| Rally | 2025-06-23 | 2026-01-13 | 146 | $119.41 | $187.50 | +57.0% | +117.9% | +15.6% | +41.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-13 | 2026-06-08 | 97 | $187.50 | $95.72 | -48.9% | -82.6% | +6.3% | -55.3% |
| Rally | 2026-06-08 | 2026-08-18 | 52 | $95.72 | $131.00 | +36.9% | +357.4% | +3.9% | +33.0% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-08-18 | 2026-11-06 | 59 | $131.00 | $93.00 | -29.0% | -76.9% | -4.1% | -24.9% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.