Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2003-09-15 | 2004-01-23 | 91 | $12.82 | $18.18 | +41.9% | +163.4% | +12.5% | +29.4% |
| Drawdown | 2004-01-23 | 2004-10-15 | 185 | $18.18 | $13.21 | -27.4% | -35.3% | -2.9% | -24.4% |
| Rally | 2004-10-15 | 2007-12-07 | 793 | $13.21 | $25.08 | +89.9% | +22.6% | +35.8% | +54.1% |
| Drawdown | 2007-12-07 | 2008-07-15 | 151 | $25.08 | $16.94 | -32.5% | -48.1% | -19.3% | -13.2% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2008-09-19 | 48 | $16.94 | $21.92 | +29.4% | +287.7% | +3.3% | +26.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-19 | 2008-10-10 | 16 | $21.92 | $13.60 | -38.0% | -99.9% | -28.4% | -9.6% |
| Rally | 2008-10-10 | 2008-10-30 | 15 | $13.60 | $17.47 | +28.4% | +6,575.8% | +6.1% | +22.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-30 | 2008-11-20 | 16 | $17.47 | $11.40 | -34.7% | -99.9% | -21.1% | -13.6% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-01-06 | 31 | $11.40 | $18.52 | +62.5% | +5,083.3% | +24.2% | +38.3% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-06 | 2009-03-09 | 43 | $18.52 | $11.05 | -40.3% | -95.1% | -27.6% | -12.7% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2011-02-18 | 494 | $11.05 | $24.69 | +123.3% | +50.7% | +98.5% | +24.8% |
| Drawdown | 2011-02-18 | 2011-09-28 | 154 | $24.69 | $16.76 | -32.1% | -46.9% | -14.3% | -17.8% |
| Rally | 2011-09-28 | 2017-03-01 | 1,364 | $16.76 | $54.03 | +222.3% | +24.1% | +108.2% | +114.1% |
| Drawdown | 2017-03-01 | 2018-03-01 | 253 | $54.03 | $37.43 | -30.7% | -30.6% | +11.8% | -42.5% |
| Rally | 2018-03-01 | 2019-09-26 | 397 | $37.43 | $54.89 | +46.7% | +27.5% | +11.2% | +35.5% |
| Drawdown | 2019-09-26 | 2020-03-23 | 123 | $54.89 | $29.49 | -46.3% | -72.0% | -24.9% | -21.4% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2020-04-09 | 14 | $29.49 | $35.41 | +20.1% | +2,604.1% | +24.7% | -4.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-09 | 2020-05-14 | 25 | $35.41 | $27.83 | -21.4% | -91.2% | +2.2% | -23.7% |
| Rally | 2020-05-14 | 2021-05-07 | 248 | $27.83 | $50.18 | +80.3% | +82.1% | +48.4% | +32.0% |
| Drawdown | 2021-05-07 | 2021-09-23 | 97 | $50.18 | $39.25 | -21.8% | -47.2% | +5.1% | -26.9% |
| Rally | 2021-09-23 | 2026-07-28 | 1,215 | $39.25 | $118.72 | +202.5% | +25.8% | +67.0% | +135.5% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-07-28 | 2026-11-06 | 73 | $118.72 | $105.97 | -10.7% | -32.4% | -0.7% | -10.0% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.