Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1973-06-28 | 1973-10-19 | 80 | USD 1.31 | USD 1.61 | +23.1% | +5.3% | +17.8% |
| Drawdown | 1973-10-19 | 1974-07-10 | 182 | USD 1.61 | USD 0.58 | -64.0% | -27.4% | -36.6% |
| Rally | 1974-07-10 | 1974-07-17 | 6 | USD 0.58 | USD 0.71 | +23.1% | +4.6% | +18.5% |
| Drawdown | 1974-07-17 | 1974-10-03 | 56 | USD 0.71 | USD 0.29 | -59.7% | -25.6% | -34.1% |
| Rally | 1974-10-03 | 1974-10-22 | 14 | USD 0.29 | USD 0.44 | +51.7% | +17.4% | +34.3% |
| Drawdown | 1974-10-22 | 1974-12-23 | 44 | USD 0.44 | USD 0.25 | -41.8% | -9.8% | -31.9% |
| Rally | 1974-12-23 | 1975-02-06 | 32 | USD 0.25 | USD 0.53 | +107.6% | +19.1% | +88.5% |
| Drawdown | 1975-02-06 | 1975-03-12 | 24 | USD 0.53 | USD 0.35 | -34.6% | +6.4% | -41.0% |
| Rally | 1975-03-12 | 1975-05-09 | 42 | USD 0.35 | USD 0.52 | +51.4% | +8.3% | +43.1% |
| Drawdown | 1975-05-09 | 1975-06-10 | 22 | USD 0.52 | USD 0.41 | -21.1% | -0.1% | -21.0% |
| Rally | 1975-06-10 | 1975-06-30 | 15 | USD 0.41 | USD 0.50 | +20.9% | +5.3% | +15.7% |
| Drawdown | 1975-06-30 | 1975-12-05 | 112 | USD 0.50 | USD 0.31 | -38.5% | -8.8% | -29.7% |
| Rally | 1975-12-05 | 1976-02-20 | 53 | USD 0.31 | USD 0.48 | +56.3% | +17.6% | +38.7% |
| Drawdown | 1976-02-20 | 1976-10-15 | 167 | USD 0.48 | USD 0.37 | -23.0% | -1.2% | -21.8% |
| Rally | 1976-10-15 | 1978-09-13 | 482 | USD 0.37 | USD 0.64 | +72.7% | +5.4% | +67.3% |
| Drawdown | 1978-09-13 | 1978-12-20 | 70 | USD 0.64 | USD 0.44 | -31.6% | -11.0% | -20.6% |
| Rally | 1978-12-20 | 1979-08-07 | 159 | USD 0.44 | USD 0.62 | +42.9% | +11.6% | +31.3% |
| Drawdown | 1979-08-07 | 1979-11-07 | 66 | USD 0.62 | USD 0.44 | -30.0% | -5.5% | -24.5% |
| Rally | 1979-11-07 | 1980-01-22 | 52 | USD 0.44 | USD 0.58 | +33.0% | +11.7% | +21.3% |
| Drawdown | 1980-01-22 | 1980-03-27 | 47 | USD 0.58 | USD 0.40 | -31.4% | -11.9% | -19.5% |
| Rally | 1980-03-27 | 1980-07-18 | 79 | USD 0.40 | USD 0.63 | +59.0% | +24.3% | +34.8% |
| Drawdown | 1980-07-18 | 1980-12-11 | 102 | USD 0.63 | USD 0.47 | -25.0% | +4.4% | -29.4% |
| Rally | 1980-12-11 | 1981-06-23 | 134 | USD 0.47 | USD 0.69 | +44.4% | +4.7% | +39.7% |
| Drawdown | 1981-06-23 | 1981-09-28 | 68 | USD 0.69 | USD 0.51 | -25.9% | -13.4% | -12.5% |
| Rally | 1981-09-28 | 1981-12-10 | 53 | USD 0.51 | USD 0.61 | +20.8% | +8.8% | +11.9% |
| Drawdown | 1981-12-10 | 1982-08-12 | 170 | USD 0.61 | USD 0.46 | -25.8% | -18.5% | -7.3% |
| Rally | 1982-08-12 | 1983-06-06 | 207 | USD 0.46 | USD 1.13 | +148.4% | +60.9% | +87.5% |
| Drawdown | 1983-06-06 | 1983-10-25 | 100 | USD 1.13 | USD 0.89 | -21.6% | +1.0% | -22.6% |
| Rally | 1983-10-25 | 1985-07-19 | 439 | USD 0.89 | USD 1.70 | +91.4% | +17.2% | +74.1% |
| Drawdown | 1985-07-19 | 1985-09-18 | 43 | USD 1.70 | USD 1.34 | -20.9% | -6.9% | -14.0% |
| Rally | 1985-09-18 | 1986-06-03 | 178 | USD 1.34 | USD 2.16 | +60.5% | +35.1% | +25.4% |
| Drawdown | 1986-06-03 | 1986-11-18 | 119 | USD 2.16 | USD 1.61 | -25.4% | -3.6% | -21.8% |
| Rally | 1986-11-18 | 1987-08-26 | 195 | USD 1.61 | USD 2.31 | +43.5% | +41.3% | +2.2% |
| Drawdown | 1987-08-26 | 1987-12-04 | 71 | USD 2.31 | USD 1.36 | -41.2% | -33.1% | -8.1% |
| Rally | 1987-12-04 | 1989-08-07 | 423 | USD 1.36 | USD 4.76 | +250.7% | +56.0% | +194.7% |
| Drawdown | 1989-08-07 | 1990-04-06 | 170 | USD 4.76 | USD 3.13 | -34.2% | -2.7% | -31.6% |
| Rally | 1990-04-06 | 1990-06-05 | 41 | USD 3.13 | USD 3.88 | +24.1% | +7.8% | +16.3% |
| Drawdown | 1990-06-05 | 1990-10-30 | 104 | USD 3.88 | USD 1.53 | -60.5% | -17.1% | -43.4% |
| Rally | 1990-10-30 | 1991-06-03 | 149 | USD 1.53 | USD 3.99 | +160.1% | +27.6% | +132.5% |
| Drawdown | 1991-06-03 | 1991-10-10 | 92 | USD 3.99 | USD 3.15 | -21.0% | -1.9% | -19.0% |
| Rally | 1991-10-10 | 1993-04-13 | 381 | USD 3.15 | USD 5.73 | +81.6% | +18.0% | +63.6% |
| Drawdown | 1993-04-13 | 1993-05-17 | 25 | USD 5.73 | USD 4.55 | -20.6% | -2.0% | -18.6% |
| Rally | 1993-05-17 | 1994-06-03 | 266 | USD 4.55 | USD 5.91 | +30.1% | +4.5% | +25.6% |
| Drawdown | 1994-06-03 | 1994-11-22 | 121 | USD 5.91 | USD 4.58 | -22.6% | -2.2% | -20.4% |
| Rally | 1994-11-22 | 1998-07-14 | 919 | USD 4.58 | USD 21.26 | +364.4% | +161.6% | +202.8% |
| Drawdown | 1998-07-14 | 1998-10-14 | 66 | USD 21.26 | USD 11.70 | -45.0% | -14.6% | -30.4% |
| Rally | 1998-10-14 | 1999-07-16 | 190 | USD 11.70 | USD 18.76 | +60.4% | +41.1% | +19.3% |
| Drawdown | 1999-07-16 | 1999-10-15 | 65 | USD 18.76 | USD 12.06 | -35.7% | -12.1% | -23.6% |
| Rally | 1999-10-15 | 1999-11-16 | 23 | USD 12.06 | USD 16.90 | +40.1% | +13.8% | +26.2% |
| Drawdown | 1999-11-16 | 2000-03-14 | 82 | USD 16.90 | USD 10.88 | -35.6% | -4.3% | -31.3% |
| Rally | 2000-03-14 | 2000-06-02 | 57 | USD 10.88 | USD 15.71 | +44.4% | +8.7% | +35.7% |
| Drawdown | 2000-06-02 | 2000-06-30 | 21 | USD 15.71 | USD 11.08 | -29.5% | -1.5% | -28.0% |
| Rally | 2000-06-30 | 2000-09-12 | 51 | USD 11.08 | USD 14.83 | +33.9% | +1.9% | +32.0% |
| Drawdown | 2000-09-12 | 2000-10-18 | 27 | USD 14.83 | USD 10.98 | -26.0% | -9.4% | -16.5% |
| Rally | 2000-10-18 | 2000-11-06 | 14 | USD 10.98 | USD 13.28 | +21.0% | +6.7% | +14.3% |
| Drawdown | 2000-11-06 | 2000-12-06 | 22 | USD 13.28 | USD 10.03 | -24.5% | -5.6% | -18.9% |
| Rally | 2000-12-06 | 2001-08-23 | 180 | USD 10.03 | USD 17.50 | +74.6% | -14.0% | +88.6% |
| Drawdown | 2001-08-23 | 2001-09-21 | 17 | USD 17.50 | USD 13.86 | -20.8% | -16.9% | -3.9% |
| Rally | 2001-09-21 | 2002-05-17 | 165 | USD 13.86 | USD 21.30 | +53.7% | +14.6% | +39.1% |
| Drawdown | 2002-05-17 | 2002-07-23 | 46 | USD 21.30 | USD 16.17 | -24.1% | -27.9% | +3.8% |
| Rally | 2002-07-23 | 2002-08-27 | 26 | USD 16.17 | USD 19.94 | +23.3% | +17.2% | +6.1% |
| Drawdown | 2002-08-27 | 2002-10-09 | 31 | USD 19.94 | USD 15.26 | -23.5% | -16.9% | -6.6% |
| Rally | 2002-10-09 | 2007-10-05 | 1,257 | USD 15.26 | USD 36.49 | +139.2% | +100.5% | +38.7% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-05 | 2008-01-18 | 73 | USD 36.49 | USD 25.27 | -30.8% | -14.9% | -15.8% |
| Rally | 2008-01-18 | 2008-02-01 | 10 | USD 25.27 | USD 31.63 | +25.2% | +5.3% | +19.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-02-01 | 2008-03-10 | 26 | USD 31.63 | USD 25.22 | -20.3% | -8.7% | -11.5% |
| Rally | 2008-03-10 | 2008-03-24 | 10 | USD 25.22 | USD 30.32 | +20.2% | +6.0% | +14.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-03-24 | 2008-07-15 | 80 | USD 30.32 | USD 13.49 | -55.5% | -10.0% | -45.5% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2008-09-08 | 39 | USD 13.49 | USD 25.80 | +91.3% | +4.4% | +86.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-08 | 2008-09-15 | 6 | USD 25.80 | USD 19.72 | -23.6% | -5.9% | -17.6% |
| Rally | 2008-09-15 | 2008-10-01 | 13 | USD 19.72 | USD 28.32 | +43.6% | -2.7% | +46.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-01 | 2008-10-09 | 7 | USD 28.32 | USD 14.58 | -48.5% | -21.6% | -26.9% |
| Rally | 2008-10-09 | 2008-10-14 | 4 | USD 14.58 | USD 19.71 | +35.1% | +9.7% | +25.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-14 | 2008-11-20 | 28 | USD 19.71 | USD 8.36 | -57.6% | -24.6% | -33.0% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2008-11-28 | 6 | USD 8.36 | USD 12.07 | +44.4% | +19.1% | +25.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-28 | 2008-12-01 | 2 | USD 12.07 | USD 9.54 | -20.9% | -8.9% | -12.0% |
| Rally | 2008-12-01 | 2008-12-08 | 6 | USD 9.54 | USD 13.55 | +42.0% | +11.5% | +30.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-08 | 2009-01-20 | 29 | USD 13.55 | USD 3.87 | -71.4% | -11.5% | -59.9% |
| Rally | 2009-01-20 | 2009-01-28 | 7 | USD 3.87 | USD 5.61 | +44.9% | +8.6% | +36.3% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-28 | 2009-02-04 | 6 | USD 5.61 | USD 3.57 | -36.4% | -4.8% | -31.6% |
| Rally | 2009-02-04 | 2009-02-09 | 4 | USD 3.57 | USD 5.23 | +46.6% | +4.5% | +42.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-09 | 2009-02-20 | 9 | USD 5.23 | USD 2.88 | -45.0% | -11.5% | -33.5% |
| Rally | 2009-02-20 | 2009-02-26 | 5 | USD 2.88 | USD 4.04 | +40.4% | -2.2% | +42.6% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-26 | 2009-03-06 | 7 | USD 4.04 | USD 2.39 | -40.8% | -9.2% | -31.6% |
| Rally | 2009-03-06 | 2009-03-23 | 12 | USD 2.39 | USD 5.94 | +148.4% | +20.4% | +128.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-03-23 | 2009-03-30 | 6 | USD 5.94 | USD 4.59 | -22.7% | -4.3% | -18.4% |
| Rally | 2009-03-30 | 2009-04-13 | 10 | USD 4.59 | USD 8.39 | +82.8% | +9.0% | +73.7% |
| Drawdown | 2009-04-13 | 2009-04-20 | 6 | USD 8.39 | USD 6.11 | -27.2% | -3.1% | -24.2% |
| Rally | 2009-04-20 | 2009-05-08 | 15 | USD 6.11 | USD 10.79 | +76.7% | +11.6% | +65.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-05-08 | 2009-05-15 | 6 | USD 10.79 | USD 8.13 | -24.7% | -5.0% | -19.7% |
| Rally | 2009-05-15 | 2009-10-14 | 106 | USD 8.13 | USD 14.18 | +74.5% | +23.7% | +50.8% |
| Drawdown | 2009-10-14 | 2010-02-12 | 84 | USD 14.18 | USD 11.03 | -22.2% | -1.5% | -20.7% |
| Rally | 2010-02-12 | 2010-04-15 | 43 | USD 11.03 | USD 14.88 | +34.9% | +12.7% | +22.2% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-15 | 2010-11-30 | 160 | USD 14.88 | USD 8.38 | -43.7% | -2.6% | -41.1% |
| Rally | 2010-11-30 | 2011-01-14 | 33 | USD 8.38 | USD 11.68 | +39.4% | +9.5% | +29.9% |
| Drawdown | 2011-01-14 | 2011-08-23 | 153 | USD 11.68 | USD 4.83 | -58.6% | -10.1% | -48.5% |
| Rally | 2011-08-23 | 2011-08-29 | 5 | USD 4.83 | USD 6.43 | +33.2% | +4.1% | +29.1% |
| Drawdown | 2011-08-29 | 2011-10-03 | 25 | USD 6.43 | USD 4.25 | -34.0% | -9.2% | -24.8% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2011-10-28 | 20 | USD 4.25 | USD 5.64 | +32.9% | +16.9% | +16.0% |
| Drawdown | 2011-10-28 | 2011-12-19 | 36 | USD 5.64 | USD 3.84 | -32.0% | -6.2% | -25.8% |
| Rally | 2011-12-19 | 2012-03-26 | 67 | USD 3.84 | USD 7.65 | +99.2% | +17.5% | +81.7% |
| Drawdown | 2012-03-26 | 2012-05-21 | 40 | USD 7.65 | USD 5.26 | -31.2% | -7.1% | -24.1% |
| Rally | 2012-05-21 | 2015-07-22 | 797 | USD 5.26 | USD 14.50 | +175.6% | +60.7% | +114.9% |
| Drawdown | 2015-07-22 | 2016-02-11 | 142 | USD 14.50 | USD 8.82 | -39.1% | -13.5% | -25.7% |
| Rally | 2016-02-11 | 2018-03-12 | 524 | USD 8.82 | USD 26.88 | +204.7% | +52.2% | +152.6% |
| Drawdown | 2018-03-12 | 2018-12-24 | 200 | USD 26.88 | USD 18.88 | -29.8% | -15.5% | -14.3% |
| Rally | 2018-12-24 | 2020-01-02 | 258 | USD 18.88 | USD 30.28 | +60.4% | +38.6% | +21.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-02 | 2020-03-23 | 56 | USD 30.28 | USD 15.46 | -48.9% | -31.3% | -17.6% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2020-06-08 | 54 | USD 15.46 | USD 24.57 | +59.0% | +44.5% | +14.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-08 | 2020-07-09 | 23 | USD 24.57 | USD 19.60 | -20.2% | -2.5% | -17.7% |
| Rally | 2020-07-09 | 2022-02-08 | 401 | USD 19.60 | USD 43.90 | +124.0% | +43.4% | +80.5% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-08 | 2022-07-14 | 108 | USD 43.90 | USD 27.07 | -38.3% | -16.2% | -22.2% |
| Rally | 2022-07-14 | 2022-11-11 | 86 | USD 27.07 | USD 34.74 | +28.3% | +5.3% | +23.0% |
| Drawdown | 2022-11-11 | 2023-03-23 | 90 | USD 34.74 | USD 24.69 | -28.9% | -1.1% | -27.8% |
| Rally | 2023-03-23 | 2023-07-24 | 84 | USD 24.69 | USD 30.13 | +22.0% | +15.3% | +6.7% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-24 | 2023-10-27 | 69 | USD 30.13 | USD 23.42 | -22.3% | -9.6% | -12.7% |
| Rally | 2023-10-27 | 2025-02-06 | 320 | USD 23.42 | USD 45.92 | +96.0% | +47.8% | +48.3% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-06 | 2025-04-04 | 41 | USD 45.92 | USD 33.29 | -27.5% | -16.6% | -10.9% |
| Rally | 2025-04-04 | 2026-08-12 | 340 | USD 33.29 | USD 64.48 | +93.7% | +52.7% | +41.0% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-08-12 | 2026-11-04 | 60 | USD 64.48 | USD 51.63 | -19.9% | -0.8% | -19.2% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.