Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1983-11-21 | 1984-04-16 | 102 | $0.01 | $0.02 | +64.7% | -4.7% | +69.4% |
| Drawdown | 1984-04-16 | 1984-05-10 | 18 | $0.02 | $0.02 | -24.9% | +1.1% | -26.0% |
| Rally | 1984-05-10 | 1984-12-24 | 159 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +100.6% | +4.2% | +96.4% |
| Drawdown | 1984-12-24 | 1984-12-31 | 5 | $0.03 | $0.01 | -60.6% | +0.3% | -60.9% |
| Rally | 1984-12-31 | 1986-02-26 | 292 | $0.01 | $0.35 | +2,500.0% | +34.0% | +2,466.0% |
| Drawdown | 1986-02-26 | 1986-03-11 | 10 | $0.35 | $0.27 | -22.7% | +3.4% | -26.1% |
| Rally | 1986-03-11 | 1986-04-22 | 30 | $0.27 | $0.38 | +38.5% | +4.6% | +33.8% |
| Drawdown | 1986-04-22 | 1986-05-13 | 16 | $0.38 | $0.23 | -38.0% | -2.5% | -35.5% |
| Rally | 1986-05-13 | 1986-06-30 | 34 | $0.23 | $0.34 | +46.5% | +6.1% | +40.4% |
| Drawdown | 1986-06-30 | 1986-09-16 | 55 | $0.34 | $0.27 | -22.5% | -7.6% | -14.8% |
| Rally | 1986-09-16 | 1987-02-06 | 101 | $0.27 | $0.57 | +113.8% | +20.9% | +93.0% |
| Drawdown | 1987-02-06 | 1987-04-10 | 45 | $0.57 | $0.39 | -31.2% | +4.4% | -35.7% |
| Rally | 1987-04-10 | 1987-04-13 | 2 | $0.39 | $0.48 | +21.7% | -2.3% | +24.1% |
| Drawdown | 1987-04-13 | 1987-05-22 | 29 | $0.48 | $0.31 | -35.7% | -1.2% | -34.5% |
| Rally | 1987-05-22 | 1987-06-12 | 15 | $0.31 | $0.37 | +21.8% | +6.9% | +14.9% |
| Drawdown | 1987-06-12 | 1987-07-23 | 29 | $0.37 | $0.29 | -21.5% | +2.1% | -23.6% |
| Rally | 1987-07-23 | 1987-08-17 | 18 | $0.29 | $0.40 | +35.4% | +8.5% | +26.8% |
| Drawdown | 1987-08-17 | 1987-10-20 | 46 | $0.40 | $0.20 | -48.9% | -29.1% | -19.8% |
| Rally | 1987-10-20 | 1988-03-01 | 92 | $0.20 | $0.34 | +69.0% | +12.8% | +56.2% |
| Drawdown | 1988-03-01 | 1988-05-27 | 63 | $0.34 | $0.27 | -22.1% | -5.2% | -16.9% |
| Rally | 1988-05-27 | 1990-06-04 | 510 | $0.27 | $0.85 | +219.6% | +45.0% | +174.6% |
| Drawdown | 1990-06-04 | 1990-11-19 | 119 | $0.85 | $0.55 | -35.3% | -13.1% | -22.3% |
| Rally | 1990-11-19 | 1993-10-13 | 734 | $0.55 | $2.57 | +365.5% | +44.5% | +321.0% |
| Drawdown | 1993-10-13 | 1994-01-17 | 67 | $2.57 | $2.00 | -22.4% | +2.6% | -24.9% |
| Rally | 1994-01-17 | 1994-01-31 | 11 | $2.00 | $2.48 | +24.4% | +1.8% | +22.6% |
| Drawdown | 1994-01-31 | 1994-04-20 | 56 | $2.48 | $1.70 | -31.5% | -8.2% | -23.3% |
| Rally | 1994-04-20 | 1997-03-10 | 730 | $1.70 | $4.98 | +193.0% | +84.1% | +108.9% |
| Drawdown | 1997-03-10 | 1997-03-31 | 15 | $4.98 | $3.92 | -21.3% | -6.9% | -14.3% |
| Rally | 1997-03-31 | 1997-10-22 | 145 | $3.92 | $7.98 | +103.5% | +27.9% | +75.6% |
| Drawdown | 1997-10-22 | 1998-01-23 | 64 | $7.98 | $5.94 | -25.6% | -1.1% | -24.4% |
| Rally | 1998-01-23 | 1998-04-13 | 55 | $5.94 | $8.85 | +49.0% | +15.9% | +33.1% |
| Drawdown | 1998-04-13 | 1998-09-21 | 113 | $8.85 | $4.08 | -53.9% | -7.7% | -46.2% |
| Rally | 1998-09-21 | 1998-11-24 | 47 | $4.08 | $6.97 | +70.9% | +15.5% | +55.4% |
| Drawdown | 1998-11-24 | 1999-04-06 | 90 | $6.97 | $4.23 | -39.2% | +11.4% | -50.6% |
| Rally | 1999-04-06 | 1999-05-19 | 32 | $4.23 | $6.99 | +65.1% | +2.0% | +63.1% |
| Drawdown | 1999-05-19 | 1999-10-15 | 105 | $6.99 | $4.28 | -38.8% | -7.2% | -31.6% |
| Rally | 1999-10-15 | 2000-01-25 | 70 | $4.28 | $6.01 | +40.6% | +13.0% | +27.6% |
| Drawdown | 2000-01-25 | 2000-03-14 | 35 | $6.01 | $3.93 | -34.6% | -3.6% | -31.0% |
| Rally | 2000-03-14 | 2000-10-02 | 141 | $3.93 | $7.12 | +80.9% | +5.7% | +75.3% |
| Drawdown | 2000-10-02 | 2000-12-15 | 54 | $7.12 | $5.42 | -23.9% | -8.6% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 2000-12-15 | 2001-02-01 | 32 | $5.42 | $7.52 | +38.9% | +4.7% | +34.2% |
| Drawdown | 2001-02-01 | 2001-03-22 | 35 | $7.52 | $5.67 | -24.6% | -18.6% | -5.9% |
| Rally | 2001-03-22 | 2001-06-21 | 64 | $5.67 | $7.47 | +31.6% | +10.7% | +20.9% |
| Drawdown | 2001-06-21 | 2001-10-30 | 88 | $7.47 | $4.99 | -33.1% | -14.3% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2001-10-30 | 2002-05-23 | 142 | $4.99 | $6.99 | +40.0% | +3.5% | +36.5% |
| Drawdown | 2002-05-23 | 2002-10-09 | 97 | $6.99 | $4.48 | -35.9% | -29.2% | -6.7% |
| Rally | 2002-10-09 | 2004-01-26 | 326 | $4.48 | $9.65 | +115.2% | +48.7% | +66.4% |
| Drawdown | 2004-01-26 | 2004-07-26 | 126 | $9.65 | $7.63 | -20.9% | -6.2% | -14.7% |
| Rally | 2004-07-26 | 2006-02-27 | 402 | $7.63 | $17.32 | +126.9% | +19.4% | +107.5% |
| Drawdown | 2006-02-27 | 2006-06-14 | 76 | $17.32 | $13.61 | -21.4% | -5.0% | -16.5% |
| Rally | 2006-06-14 | 2007-07-17 | 274 | $13.61 | $24.27 | +78.3% | +26.0% | +52.4% |
| Drawdown | 2007-07-17 | 2008-01-17 | 129 | $24.27 | $14.94 | -38.4% | -13.9% | -24.5% |
| Rally | 2008-01-17 | 2008-06-16 | 104 | $14.94 | $18.15 | +21.4% | +2.0% | +19.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-06-16 | 2008-07-15 | 21 | $18.15 | $14.09 | -22.4% | -10.7% | -11.7% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2008-09-19 | 48 | $14.09 | $18.33 | +30.1% | +3.3% | +26.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-19 | 2008-10-09 | 15 | $18.33 | $10.28 | -43.9% | -27.5% | -16.4% |
| Rally | 2008-10-09 | 2008-10-13 | 3 | $10.28 | $12.75 | +24.1% | +10.3% | +13.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-13 | 2008-10-27 | 11 | $12.75 | $9.19 | -27.9% | -15.4% | -12.5% |
| Rally | 2008-10-27 | 2008-11-04 | 7 | $9.19 | $12.39 | +34.8% | +18.5% | +16.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-20 | 13 | $12.39 | $8.40 | -32.2% | -25.2% | -7.0% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-01-06 | 31 | $8.40 | $11.95 | +42.2% | +24.2% | +18.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-06 | 2009-03-06 | 42 | $11.95 | $6.60 | -44.8% | -26.9% | -17.9% |
| Rally | 2009-03-06 | 2010-04-14 | 279 | $6.60 | $21.58 | +227.0% | +77.2% | +149.9% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-14 | 2010-07-02 | 57 | $21.58 | $15.15 | -29.8% | -15.5% | -14.3% |
| Rally | 2010-07-02 | 2011-07-07 | 256 | $15.15 | $24.69 | +62.9% | +32.3% | +30.6% |
| Drawdown | 2011-07-07 | 2011-10-03 | 62 | $24.69 | $16.29 | -34.0% | -18.8% | -15.2% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2013-05-17 | 408 | $16.29 | $32.17 | +97.4% | +51.7% | +45.8% |
| Drawdown | 2013-05-17 | 2013-06-24 | 26 | $32.17 | $25.66 | -20.2% | -5.7% | -14.6% |
| Rally | 2013-06-24 | 2014-12-08 | 369 | $25.66 | $34.17 | +33.2% | +31.0% | +2.2% |
| Drawdown | 2014-12-08 | 2016-02-11 | 297 | $34.17 | $18.75 | -45.1% | -11.2% | -33.9% |
| Rally | 2016-02-11 | 2016-04-20 | 48 | $18.75 | $24.54 | +30.9% | +14.9% | +16.0% |
| Drawdown | 2016-04-20 | 2016-06-27 | 48 | $24.54 | $18.37 | -25.2% | -4.8% | -20.3% |
| Rally | 2016-06-27 | 2017-07-25 | 272 | $18.37 | $29.04 | +58.1% | +23.8% | +34.3% |
| Drawdown | 2017-07-25 | 2018-10-24 | 317 | $29.04 | $19.51 | -32.8% | +7.2% | -40.1% |
| Rally | 2018-10-24 | 2019-07-19 | 184 | $19.51 | $25.06 | +28.5% | +12.1% | +16.4% |
| Drawdown | 2019-07-19 | 2020-03-12 | 164 | $25.06 | $12.06 | -51.9% | -16.7% | -35.2% |
| Rally | 2020-03-12 | 2020-03-17 | 4 | $12.06 | $14.50 | +20.3% | +2.0% | +18.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-17 | 2020-03-23 | 5 | $14.50 | $11.01 | -24.1% | -11.5% | -12.6% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2020-10-15 | 145 | $11.01 | $17.72 | +61.0% | +55.7% | +5.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-10-15 | 2020-10-29 | 11 | $17.72 | $13.99 | -21.1% | -5.0% | -16.1% |
| Rally | 2020-10-29 | 2021-11-02 | 255 | $13.99 | $29.38 | +110.1% | +39.9% | +70.2% |
| Drawdown | 2021-11-02 | 2022-06-13 | 154 | $29.38 | $18.33 | -37.6% | -19.0% | -18.6% |
| Rally | 2022-06-13 | 2022-08-12 | 43 | $18.33 | $23.33 | +27.3% | +14.1% | +13.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-12 | 2022-10-12 | 43 | $23.33 | $17.19 | -26.3% | -16.4% | -9.9% |
| Rally | 2022-10-12 | 2023-02-02 | 78 | $17.19 | $27.85 | +62.1% | +16.9% | +45.2% |
| Drawdown | 2023-02-02 | 2023-05-31 | 82 | $27.85 | $20.00 | -28.2% | +0.0% | -28.2% |
| Rally | 2023-05-31 | 2023-07-19 | 34 | $20.00 | $25.27 | +26.4% | +9.2% | +17.1% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-19 | 2023-10-23 | 68 | $25.27 | $18.97 | -24.9% | -7.6% | -17.3% |
| Rally | 2023-10-23 | 2023-12-27 | 46 | $18.97 | $25.74 | +35.7% | +13.4% | +22.3% |
| Drawdown | 2023-12-27 | 2024-09-06 | 175 | $25.74 | $16.91 | -34.3% | +13.1% | -47.4% |
| Rally | 2024-09-06 | 2024-11-29 | 60 | $16.91 | $20.43 | +20.8% | +11.5% | +9.2% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-29 | 2025-04-08 | 88 | $20.43 | $15.44 | -24.4% | -17.4% | -7.0% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2025-04-08 | 2026-11-05 | 398 | $15.44 | $32.21 | +108.6% | +47.6% | +61.0% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.