Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2015-05-05 | 2015-08-11 | 36 | $57.80 | $20.00 | -65.4% | -0.3% | -65.1% |
| Rally | 2015-08-11 | 2015-09-08 | 5 | $20.00 | $31.90 | +59.5% | -5.5% | +65.0% |
| Drawdown | 2015-09-08 | 2016-01-28 | 16 | $31.90 | $9.30 | -70.8% | -3.9% | -67.0% |
| Rally | 2016-01-28 | 2016-02-26 | 5 | $9.30 | $16.02 | +72.3% | +2.9% | +69.4% |
| Drawdown | 2016-02-26 | 2016-05-11 | 5 | $16.02 | $9.05 | -43.5% | +6.0% | -49.5% |
| Rally | 2016-05-11 | 2016-07-06 | 3 | $9.05 | $14.15 | +56.4% | +1.7% | +54.6% |
| Drawdown | 2016-07-06 | 2016-09-14 | 2 | $14.15 | $9.00 | -36.4% | +1.2% | -37.6% |
| Rally | 2016-09-14 | 2016-11-25 | 5 | $9.00 | $37.20 | +313.3% | +4.1% | +309.2% |
| Drawdown | 2016-11-25 | 2016-12-12 | 3 | $37.20 | $26.84 | -27.8% | +2.0% | -29.8% |
| Rally | 2016-12-12 | 2017-04-20 | 3 | $26.84 | $32.45 | +20.9% | +4.4% | +16.5% |
| Drawdown | 2017-04-20 | 2017-05-31 | 15 | $32.45 | $12.00 | -63.0% | +2.4% | -65.4% |
| Rally | 2017-05-31 | 2017-07-28 | 23 | $12.00 | $23.30 | +94.2% | +2.5% | +91.7% |
| Drawdown | 2017-07-28 | 2017-09-26 | 37 | $23.30 | $9.34 | -59.9% | +1.0% | -60.9% |
| Rally | 2017-09-26 | 2017-10-09 | 10 | $9.34 | $14.50 | +55.3% | +1.9% | +53.4% |
| Drawdown | 2017-10-09 | 2017-11-14 | 25 | $14.50 | $9.62 | -33.7% | +1.3% | -35.0% |
| Rally | 2017-11-14 | 2018-01-09 | 33 | $9.62 | $23.76 | +147.1% | +6.7% | +140.4% |
| Drawdown | 2018-01-09 | 2018-05-10 | 42 | $23.76 | $8.47 | -64.4% | -1.0% | -63.3% |
| Rally | 2018-05-10 | 2018-05-15 | 2 | $8.47 | $10.37 | +22.4% | -0.4% | +22.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-05-15 | 2018-06-21 | 19 | $10.37 | $6.15 | -40.7% | +1.4% | -42.1% |
| Rally | 2018-06-21 | 2018-06-22 | 2 | $6.15 | $8.00 | +30.2% | +0.2% | +30.0% |
| Drawdown | 2018-06-22 | 2018-07-03 | 4 | $8.00 | $5.37 | -32.9% | -1.5% | -31.4% |
| Rally | 2018-07-03 | 2018-07-09 | 3 | $5.37 | $8.10 | +50.8% | +2.6% | +48.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-07-09 | 2018-08-07 | 12 | $8.10 | $5.03 | -37.9% | +2.7% | -40.6% |
| Rally | 2018-08-07 | 2018-08-10 | 4 | $5.03 | $6.80 | +35.2% | -0.9% | +36.1% |
| Drawdown | 2018-08-10 | 2018-08-15 | 2 | $6.80 | $5.26 | -22.6% | -0.5% | -22.1% |
| Rally | 2018-08-15 | 2018-08-24 | 5 | $5.26 | $7.58 | +44.1% | +2.0% | +42.1% |
| Drawdown | 2018-08-24 | 2018-09-20 | 8 | $7.58 | $3.87 | -48.9% | +2.0% | -50.9% |
| Rally | 2018-09-20 | 2018-09-24 | 2 | $3.87 | $5.15 | +33.2% | -0.4% | +33.6% |
| Drawdown | 2018-09-24 | 2018-11-14 | 11 | $5.15 | $3.61 | -29.9% | -7.5% | -22.5% |
| Rally | 2018-11-14 | 2018-11-26 | 6 | $3.61 | $8.60 | +138.2% | -1.0% | +139.3% |
| Drawdown | 2018-11-26 | 2018-12-03 | 5 | $8.60 | $3.79 | -55.9% | +4.4% | -60.3% |
| Rally | 2018-12-03 | 2018-12-04 | 2 | $3.79 | $4.89 | +29.0% | -3.2% | +32.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-12-04 | 2018-12-10 | 4 | $4.89 | $3.55 | -27.4% | -2.3% | -25.1% |
| Rally | 2018-12-10 | 2019-01-11 | 19 | $3.55 | $9.75 | +174.6% | -1.6% | +176.2% |
| Drawdown | 2019-01-11 | 2019-05-20 | 88 | $9.75 | $2.72 | -72.1% | +9.4% | -81.5% |
| Rally | 2019-05-20 | 2019-05-29 | 6 | $2.72 | $3.61 | +32.6% | -2.0% | +34.6% |
| Drawdown | 2019-05-29 | 2019-06-19 | 14 | $3.61 | $2.45 | -32.2% | +5.2% | -37.3% |
| Rally | 2019-06-19 | 2019-07-05 | 12 | $2.45 | $3.39 | +38.5% | +2.2% | +36.3% |
| Drawdown | 2019-07-05 | 2019-08-28 | 35 | $3.39 | $1.64 | -51.6% | -3.4% | -48.1% |
| Rally | 2019-08-28 | 2019-09-10 | 8 | $1.64 | $2.60 | +58.4% | +3.2% | +55.3% |
| Drawdown | 2019-09-10 | 2019-10-09 | 19 | $2.60 | $1.46 | -43.7% | -2.0% | -41.7% |
| Rally | 2019-10-09 | 2019-10-18 | 8 | $1.46 | $2.06 | +40.5% | +2.3% | +38.2% |
| Drawdown | 2019-10-18 | 2019-10-31 | 10 | $2.06 | $1.46 | -29.2% | +1.7% | -30.9% |
| Rally | 2019-10-31 | 2019-11-29 | 19 | $1.46 | $2.00 | +37.3% | +3.4% | +33.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-11-29 | 2019-12-26 | 15 | $2.00 | $1.54 | -22.9% | +3.1% | -26.0% |
| Rally | 2019-12-26 | 2019-12-31 | 4 | $1.54 | $1.88 | +22.0% | -0.3% | +22.3% |
| Drawdown | 2019-12-31 | 2020-02-13 | 27 | $1.88 | $1.29 | -31.4% | +4.4% | -35.8% |
| Rally | 2020-02-13 | 2020-02-19 | 4 | $1.29 | $1.77 | +37.5% | +0.4% | +37.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-19 | 2020-02-28 | 8 | $1.77 | $1.42 | -20.2% | -12.8% | -7.5% |
| Rally | 2020-02-28 | 2020-03-11 | 7 | $1.42 | $1.84 | +30.0% | -7.2% | +37.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-11 | 2020-03-18 | 6 | $1.84 | $1.12 | -39.1% | -12.5% | -26.6% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2020-04-17 | 21 | $1.12 | $2.65 | +136.2% | +19.9% | +116.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-17 | 2020-04-23 | 5 | $2.65 | $1.97 | -25.5% | -2.7% | -22.8% |
| Rally | 2020-04-23 | 2020-07-01 | 46 | $1.97 | $4.80 | +143.7% | +11.4% | +132.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-07-01 | 2020-07-10 | 7 | $4.80 | $3.00 | -37.5% | +2.2% | -39.7% |
| Rally | 2020-07-10 | 2020-07-22 | 9 | $3.00 | $3.83 | +27.6% | +2.9% | +24.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-07-22 | 2020-08-11 | 15 | $3.83 | $3.01 | -21.3% | +1.8% | -23.1% |
| Rally | 2020-08-11 | 2020-08-13 | 3 | $3.01 | $3.69 | +22.7% | +1.2% | +21.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-08-13 | 2020-09-23 | 25 | $3.69 | $2.90 | -21.5% | -4.0% | -17.4% |
| Rally | 2020-09-23 | 2020-12-24 | 66 | $2.90 | $13.63 | +369.8% | +14.4% | +355.4% |
| Drawdown | 2020-12-24 | 2021-01-04 | 6 | $13.63 | $10.60 | -22.2% | -0.1% | -22.1% |
| Rally | 2021-01-04 | 2021-02-16 | 30 | $10.60 | $24.00 | +126.4% | +6.3% | +120.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-02-16 | 2021-03-08 | 15 | $24.00 | $15.90 | -33.8% | -2.8% | -30.9% |
| Rally | 2021-03-08 | 2021-03-24 | 13 | $15.90 | $19.20 | +20.8% | +1.8% | +19.0% |
| Drawdown | 2021-03-24 | 2021-08-04 | 93 | $19.20 | $6.86 | -64.3% | +13.2% | -77.5% |
| Rally | 2021-08-04 | 2021-08-11 | 6 | $6.86 | $9.35 | +36.3% | +0.9% | +35.4% |
| Drawdown | 2021-08-11 | 2021-08-19 | 7 | $9.35 | $7.15 | -23.6% | -0.8% | -22.8% |
| Rally | 2021-08-19 | 2021-08-31 | 9 | $7.15 | $12.27 | +71.7% | +2.7% | +69.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-08-31 | 2022-01-18 | 97 | $12.27 | $4.66 | -62.0% | +1.2% | -63.2% |
| Rally | 2022-01-18 | 2022-02-10 | 18 | $4.66 | $7.75 | +66.3% | -1.6% | +67.9% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-10 | 2022-02-23 | 9 | $7.75 | $5.94 | -23.4% | -6.2% | -17.2% |
| Rally | 2022-02-23 | 2022-03-30 | 26 | $5.94 | $7.70 | +29.6% | +8.9% | +20.7% |
| Drawdown | 2022-03-30 | 2022-05-11 | 30 | $7.70 | $4.43 | -42.5% | -14.5% | -28.0% |
| Rally | 2022-05-11 | 2022-06-09 | 21 | $4.43 | $5.90 | +33.2% | +2.1% | +31.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-06-09 | 2022-07-15 | 25 | $5.90 | $4.34 | -26.4% | -3.8% | -22.6% |
| Rally | 2022-07-15 | 2022-08-05 | 16 | $4.34 | $6.72 | +54.8% | +7.3% | +47.5% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-05 | 2022-10-24 | 56 | $6.72 | $3.20 | -52.4% | -8.4% | -44.0% |
| Rally | 2022-10-24 | 2022-11-01 | 7 | $3.20 | $3.90 | +21.9% | +1.5% | +20.3% |
| Drawdown | 2022-11-01 | 2022-11-29 | 20 | $3.90 | $2.90 | -25.6% | +2.6% | -28.3% |
| Rally | 2022-11-29 | 2023-01-18 | 34 | $2.90 | $4.40 | +51.7% | -0.7% | +52.5% |
| Drawdown | 2023-01-18 | 2023-06-12 | 101 | $4.40 | $3.01 | -31.6% | +10.4% | -42.0% |
| Rally | 2023-06-12 | 2023-08-14 | 44 | $3.01 | $5.76 | +91.4% | +3.5% | +87.9% |
| Drawdown | 2023-08-14 | 2023-10-26 | 53 | $5.76 | $4.14 | -28.1% | -7.9% | -20.3% |
| Rally | 2023-10-26 | 2023-11-24 | 21 | $4.14 | $5.73 | +38.4% | +10.2% | +28.2% |
| Drawdown | 2023-11-24 | 2024-01-23 | 40 | $5.73 | $4.44 | -22.5% | +6.7% | -29.2% |
| Rally | 2024-01-23 | 2024-04-03 | 50 | $4.44 | $6.79 | +52.9% | +7.1% | +45.8% |
| Drawdown | 2024-04-03 | 2024-11-15 | 159 | $6.79 | $3.08 | -54.6% | +12.6% | -67.3% |
| Rally | 2024-11-15 | 2025-02-18 | 62 | $3.08 | $6.11 | +98.4% | +4.4% | +94.0% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-18 | 2025-04-08 | 36 | $6.11 | $3.46 | -43.4% | -18.7% | -24.7% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-07-14 | 66 | $3.46 | $4.73 | +36.6% | +25.8% | +10.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-07-14 | 2025-09-10 | 42 | $4.73 | $2.60 | -45.0% | +4.2% | -49.2% |
| Rally | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-29 | 14 | $2.60 | $3.15 | +21.2% | +2.0% | +19.2% |
| Drawdown | 2025-09-29 | 2025-12-26 | 63 | $3.15 | $1.95 | -38.1% | +4.0% | -42.1% |
| Rally | 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-09 | 10 | $1.95 | $2.59 | +32.6% | +0.5% | +32.0% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-09 | 2026-03-13 | 44 | $2.59 | $1.50 | -42.0% | -4.8% | -37.2% |
| Rally | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-20 | 6 | $1.50 | $2.10 | +40.0% | -1.9% | +41.9% |
| Drawdown | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-30 | 7 | $2.10 | $1.67 | -20.5% | -2.5% | -18.0% |
| Rally | 2026-03-30 | 2026-05-07 | 28 | $1.67 | $2.22 | +32.9% | +15.7% | +17.3% |
| Drawdown | 2026-05-07 | 2026-06-05 | 21 | $2.22 | $1.62 | -27.0% | +0.6% | -27.7% |
| Rally | 2026-06-05 | 2026-07-10 | 24 | $1.62 | $2.01 | +24.1% | +2.6% | +21.5% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-07-10 | 2026-11-05 | 84 | $2.01 | $0.82 | -59.5% | -2.9% | -56.5% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.