Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2010-08-20 | 2010-11-02 | 48 | $140.00 | $350.00 | +150.0% | +12,179.6% | +11.4% | +138.6% |
| Drawdown | 2010-11-02 | 2011-01-31 | 61 | $350.00 | $162.50 | -53.6% | -95.8% | +7.8% | -61.3% |
| Rally | 2011-01-31 | 2011-06-14 | 92 | $162.50 | $340.00 | +109.2% | +655.5% | +0.1% | +109.1% |
| Drawdown | 2011-06-14 | 2011-08-09 | 40 | $340.00 | $170.00 | -50.0% | -98.7% | -9.0% | -41.0% |
| Rally | 2011-08-09 | 2012-12-28 | 340 | $170.00 | $250.00 | +47.1% | +33.1% | +19.6% | +27.5% |
| Drawdown | 2012-12-28 | 2013-01-21 | 15 | $250.00 | $197.50 | -21.0% | -98.1% | +6.0% | -27.0% |
| Rally | 2013-01-21 | 2013-03-14 | 37 | $197.50 | $255.00 | +29.1% | +469.9% | +5.2% | +23.9% |
| Drawdown | 2013-03-14 | 2013-07-09 | 81 | $255.00 | $177.50 | -30.4% | -67.6% | +5.7% | -36.1% |
| Rally | 2013-07-09 | 2013-12-23 | 110 | $177.50 | $330.00 | +85.9% | +314.0% | +10.6% | +75.3% |
| Drawdown | 2013-12-23 | 2015-09-07 | 392 | $330.00 | $250.00 | -24.2% | -16.3% | +5.1% | -29.3% |
| Rally | 2015-09-07 | 2016-10-14 | 142 | $250.00 | $315.00 | +26.0% | +50.7% | +11.0% | +15.0% |
| Drawdown | 2016-10-14 | 2017-12-12 | 159 | $315.00 | $231.00 | -26.7% | -38.8% | +24.9% | -51.6% |
| Rally | 2017-12-12 | 2018-03-09 | 49 | $231.00 | $292.50 | +26.6% | +236.7% | +4.6% | +22.0% |
| Drawdown | 2018-03-09 | 2018-04-09 | 18 | $292.50 | $201.00 | -31.3% | -99.5% | -6.2% | -25.1% |
| Rally | 2018-04-09 | 2018-04-23 | 9 | $201.00 | $292.50 | +45.5% | +3,647,731.5% | +2.2% | +43.3% |
| Drawdown | 2018-04-23 | 2018-06-28 | 26 | $292.50 | $160.00 | -45.3% | -99.7% | +1.7% | -47.0% |
| Rally | 2018-06-28 | 2018-08-07 | 29 | $160.00 | $294.00 | +83.8% | +19,671.7% | +5.2% | +78.5% |
| Drawdown | 2018-08-07 | 2018-09-12 | 24 | $294.00 | $150.00 | -49.0% | -99.9% | +1.1% | -50.0% |
| Rally | 2018-09-12 | 2018-11-30 | 57 | $150.00 | $276.00 | +84.0% | +1,381.7% | -4.5% | +88.5% |
| Drawdown | 2018-11-30 | 2019-05-07 | 103 | $276.00 | $100.00 | -63.8% | -91.7% | +4.5% | -68.3% |
| Rally | 2019-05-07 | 2019-05-24 | 14 | $100.00 | $125.00 | +25.0% | +5,451.1% | -2.0% | +27.0% |
| Drawdown | 2019-05-24 | 2020-02-05 | 173 | $125.00 | $55.00 | -56.0% | -69.8% | +18.0% | -74.0% |
| Rally | 2020-02-05 | 2020-03-05 | 22 | $55.00 | $92.00 | +67.3% | +36,143.8% | -9.3% | +76.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-05 | 2020-04-03 | 20 | $92.00 | $55.00 | -40.2% | -99.8% | -17.7% | -22.5% |
| Rally | 2020-04-03 | 2020-04-23 | 12 | $55.00 | $67.00 | +21.8% | +6,208.9% | +12.4% | +9.4% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-23 | 2020-05-15 | 14 | $67.00 | $53.00 | -20.9% | -98.5% | +2.4% | -23.3% |
| Rally | 2020-05-15 | 2020-06-09 | 14 | $53.00 | $65.00 | +22.6% | +3,839.8% | +12.0% | +10.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-09 | 2020-09-22 | 72 | $65.00 | $50.00 | -23.1% | -60.1% | +3.4% | -26.5% |
| Rally | 2020-09-22 | 2020-12-17 | 60 | $50.00 | $63.00 | +26.0% | +164.0% | +12.3% | +13.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-12-17 | 2021-02-01 | 29 | $63.00 | $50.00 | -20.6% | -86.6% | +1.4% | -22.0% |
| Rally | 2021-02-01 | 2021-04-16 | 52 | $50.00 | $85.00 | +70.0% | +1,208.6% | +10.9% | +59.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-04-16 | 2023-07-28 | 557 | $85.00 | $34.00 | -60.0% | -33.9% | +9.5% | -69.5% |
| Rally | 2023-07-28 | 2023-08-07 | 7 | $34.00 | $57.00 | +67.6% | +11,974,400,705.2% | -1.4% | +69.0% |
| Drawdown | 2023-08-07 | 2023-08-22 | 11 | $57.00 | $41.00 | -28.1% | -99.9% | -2.9% | -25.2% |
| Rally | 2023-08-22 | 2023-09-12 | 16 | $41.00 | $58.00 | +41.5% | +23,485.5% | +1.7% | +39.8% |
| Drawdown | 2023-09-12 | 2023-10-05 | 17 | $58.00 | $42.00 | -27.6% | -99.2% | -4.6% | -23.0% |
| Rally | 2023-10-05 | 2025-02-17 | 327 | $42.00 | $119.00 | +183.3% | +123.1% | +43.6% | +139.7% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-17 | 2025-03-04 | 12 | $119.00 | $69.00 | -42.0% | -100.0% | -5.5% | -36.5% |
| Rally | 2025-03-04 | 2025-03-11 | 6 | $69.00 | $88.00 | +27.5% | +2,732,716.2% | -3.6% | +31.1% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-11 | 2025-06-04 | 49 | $88.00 | $61.00 | -30.7% | -84.8% | +7.2% | -37.8% |
| Rally | 2025-06-04 | 2025-12-11 | 134 | $61.00 | $1,800.00 | +2,850.8% | +58,025.9% | +15.6% | +2,835.2% |
| Drawdown | 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-26 | 12 | $1,800.00 | $1,230.00 | -31.7% | -100.0% | +0.4% | -32.1% |
| Rally | 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-21 | 19 | $1,230.00 | $2,170.00 | +76.4% | +186,148.5% | -0.8% | +77.2% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-21 | 2026-02-06 | 13 | $2,170.00 | $925.00 | -57.4% | -100.0% | +0.8% | -58.2% |
| Rally | 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-25 | 12 | $925.00 | $1,660.00 | +79.5% | +21,542,269.0% | +0.2% | +79.3% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-25 | 2026-03-13 | 13 | $1,660.00 | $940.00 | -43.4% | -100.0% | -4.5% | -38.9% |
| Rally | 2026-03-13 | 2026-04-22 | 23 | $940.00 | $1,360.00 | +44.7% | +5,622.0% | +7.6% | +37.1% |
| Drawdown | 2026-04-22 | 2026-05-28 | 27 | $1,360.00 | $610.00 | -55.1% | -99.9% | +6.0% | -61.1% |
| Rally | 2026-05-28 | 2026-06-02 | 4 | $610.00 | $835.00 | +36.9% | +38,946,492,251.5% | +0.6% | +36.3% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-08 | 5 | $835.00 | $550.00 | -34.1% | -100.0% | -2.7% | -31.5% |
| Rally | 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-23 | 12 | $550.00 | $930.00 | +69.1% | +6,173,314.5% | -0.5% | +69.6% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-23 | 2026-06-30 | 6 | $930.00 | $705.00 | -24.2% | -100.0% | +1.8% | -26.0% |
| Rally | 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-21 | 16 | $705.00 | $1,010.00 | +43.3% | +28,679.5% | +0.1% | +43.1% |
| Drawdown | 2026-07-21 | 2026-10-22 | 68 | $1,010.00 | $314.00 | -68.9% | -98.7% | +2.1% | -71.0% |
| Rally | 2026-10-22 | 2026-10-23 | 2 | $314.00 | $378.00 | +20.4% | +1,415,243,347,891.1% | -0.5% | +20.9% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-10-23 | 2026-11-06 | 11 | $378.00 | $266.00 | -29.6% | -100.0% | -3.2% | -26.4% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.