Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 1994-03-21 | 1994-11-22 | 170 | $29.78 | $17.91 | -39.9% | -3.9% | -35.9% |
| Rally | 1994-11-22 | 1995-12-29 | 274 | $17.91 | $33.21 | +85.4% | +36.8% | +48.5% |
| Drawdown | 1995-12-29 | 1996-04-11 | 72 | $33.21 | $24.55 | -26.1% | +2.5% | -28.5% |
| Rally | 1996-04-11 | 1996-06-06 | 40 | $24.55 | $29.58 | +20.5% | +6.6% | +13.9% |
| Drawdown | 1996-06-06 | 1996-11-08 | 110 | $29.58 | $22.14 | -25.2% | +8.6% | -33.8% |
| Rally | 1996-11-08 | 1997-01-06 | 39 | $22.14 | $29.78 | +34.5% | +2.3% | +32.2% |
| Drawdown | 1997-01-06 | 1997-04-04 | 63 | $29.78 | $20.53 | -31.1% | +1.4% | -32.5% |
| Rally | 1997-04-04 | 1998-04-07 | 253 | $20.53 | $43.27 | +110.8% | +46.4% | +64.4% |
| Drawdown | 1998-04-07 | 1998-10-13 | 131 | $43.27 | $26.67 | -38.4% | -10.3% | -28.0% |
| Rally | 1998-10-13 | 1999-01-29 | 75 | $26.67 | $43.47 | +63.0% | +28.6% | +34.4% |
| Drawdown | 1999-01-29 | 1999-03-23 | 37 | $43.47 | $31.80 | -26.9% | -1.4% | -25.5% |
| Rally | 1999-03-23 | 1999-08-02 | 92 | $31.80 | $42.36 | +33.2% | +5.2% | +28.0% |
| Drawdown | 1999-08-02 | 1999-10-21 | 58 | $42.36 | $25.96 | -38.7% | -3.3% | -35.4% |
| Rally | 1999-10-21 | 2001-02-06 | 326 | $25.96 | $91.66 | +253.1% | +5.3% | +247.7% |
| Drawdown | 2001-02-06 | 2001-03-16 | 28 | $91.66 | $57.30 | -37.5% | -14.9% | -22.6% |
| Rally | 2001-03-16 | 2001-07-19 | 87 | $57.30 | $124.26 | +116.9% | +5.6% | +111.3% |
| Drawdown | 2001-07-19 | 2001-10-25 | 66 | $124.26 | $67.09 | -46.0% | -9.5% | -36.6% |
| Rally | 2001-10-25 | 2002-03-01 | 87 | $67.09 | $149.89 | +123.4% | +2.9% | +120.5% |
| Drawdown | 2002-03-01 | 2002-07-22 | 99 | $149.89 | $88.94 | -40.7% | -27.6% | -13.1% |
| Rally | 2002-07-22 | 2002-09-11 | 37 | $88.94 | $116.72 | +31.2% | +10.9% | +20.3% |
| Drawdown | 2002-09-11 | 2002-10-09 | 21 | $116.72 | $84.35 | -27.7% | -14.6% | -13.1% |
| Rally | 2002-10-09 | 2002-10-21 | 9 | $84.35 | $110.19 | +30.6% | +15.8% | +14.8% |
| Drawdown | 2002-10-21 | 2003-03-10 | 96 | $110.19 | $84.72 | -23.1% | -10.3% | -12.9% |
| Rally | 2003-03-10 | 2004-03-05 | 251 | $84.72 | $180.33 | +112.9% | +43.3% | +69.6% |
| Drawdown | 2004-03-05 | 2004-07-26 | 98 | $180.33 | $142.50 | -21.0% | -6.3% | -14.7% |
| Rally | 2004-07-26 | 2005-03-04 | 155 | $142.50 | $284.00 | +99.3% | +12.7% | +86.6% |
| Drawdown | 2005-03-04 | 2005-04-15 | 30 | $284.00 | $215.65 | -24.1% | -6.5% | -17.6% |
| Rally | 2005-04-15 | 2005-07-28 | 73 | $215.65 | $325.80 | +51.1% | +8.8% | +42.2% |
| Drawdown | 2005-07-28 | 2005-10-10 | 52 | $325.80 | $259.56 | -20.3% | -4.5% | -15.8% |
| Rally | 2005-10-10 | 2006-01-10 | 64 | $259.56 | $400.63 | +54.4% | +8.6% | +45.7% |
| Drawdown | 2006-01-10 | 2006-09-08 | 168 | $400.63 | $183.05 | -54.3% | +0.7% | -55.0% |
| Rally | 2006-09-08 | 2006-12-06 | 63 | $183.05 | $236.87 | +29.4% | +8.8% | +20.6% |
| Drawdown | 2006-12-06 | 2007-04-04 | 81 | $236.87 | $138.15 | -41.7% | +1.9% | -43.6% |
| Rally | 2007-04-04 | 2007-05-23 | 35 | $138.15 | $181.36 | +31.3% | +5.8% | +25.5% |
| Drawdown | 2007-05-23 | 2007-08-06 | 52 | $181.36 | $54.29 | -70.1% | -3.6% | -66.5% |
| Rally | 2007-08-06 | 2007-08-09 | 4 | $54.29 | $83.03 | +52.9% | -1.0% | +53.9% |
| Drawdown | 2007-08-09 | 2007-08-28 | 14 | $83.03 | $43.99 | -47.0% | -1.4% | -45.6% |
| Rally | 2007-08-28 | 2007-09-04 | 5 | $43.99 | $55.93 | +27.1% | +4.0% | +23.2% |
| Drawdown | 2007-09-04 | 2007-09-13 | 8 | $55.93 | $44.20 | -21.0% | -0.4% | -20.6% |
| Rally | 2007-09-13 | 2007-09-18 | 4 | $44.20 | $55.90 | +26.5% | +2.4% | +24.1% |
| Drawdown | 2007-09-18 | 2007-09-26 | 7 | $55.90 | $41.05 | -26.6% | +0.4% | -26.9% |
| Rally | 2007-09-26 | 2007-10-30 | 25 | $41.05 | $60.25 | +46.8% | +0.4% | +46.4% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-30 | 2007-11-26 | 19 | $60.25 | $36.35 | -39.7% | -8.1% | -31.6% |
| Rally | 2007-11-26 | 2007-12-10 | 11 | $36.35 | $50.95 | +40.2% | +7.7% | +32.4% |
| Drawdown | 2007-12-10 | 2008-01-09 | 21 | $50.95 | $24.95 | -51.0% | -7.0% | -44.0% |
| Rally | 2008-01-09 | 2008-02-01 | 17 | $24.95 | $46.55 | +86.6% | -1.0% | +87.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-02-01 | 2008-03-06 | 24 | $46.55 | $33.45 | -28.1% | -6.5% | -21.6% |
| Rally | 2008-03-06 | 2008-05-06 | 43 | $33.45 | $60.50 | +80.9% | +8.7% | +72.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-05-06 | 2008-07-15 | 49 | $60.50 | $17.75 | -70.7% | -14.3% | -56.3% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2008-09-11 | 42 | $17.75 | $45.55 | +156.6% | +2.8% | +153.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-11 | 2008-10-24 | 32 | $45.55 | $11.15 | -75.5% | -29.8% | -45.7% |
| Rally | 2008-10-24 | 2008-11-04 | 8 | $11.15 | $19.70 | +76.7% | +14.7% | +62.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-12 | 7 | $19.70 | $9.10 | -53.8% | -15.3% | -38.5% |
| Rally | 2008-11-12 | 2008-11-18 | 5 | $9.10 | $11.00 | +20.9% | +0.8% | +20.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-18 | 2008-11-21 | 4 | $11.00 | $6.45 | -41.4% | -6.9% | -34.5% |
| Rally | 2008-11-21 | 2008-11-26 | 4 | $6.45 | $10.40 | +61.2% | +11.0% | +50.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-26 | 2008-12-02 | 4 | $10.40 | $6.90 | -33.7% | -4.4% | -29.3% |
| Rally | 2008-12-02 | 2008-12-05 | 4 | $6.90 | $10.75 | +55.8% | +3.2% | +52.6% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-05 | 2008-12-11 | 5 | $10.75 | $8.15 | -24.2% | -0.3% | -23.9% |
| Rally | 2008-12-11 | 2008-12-16 | 4 | $8.15 | $10.00 | +22.7% | +4.5% | +18.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-16 | 2008-12-29 | 9 | $10.00 | $6.35 | -36.5% | -4.8% | -31.7% |
| Rally | 2008-12-29 | 2009-01-06 | 6 | $6.35 | $8.30 | +30.7% | +7.5% | +23.2% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-06 | 2009-02-04 | 21 | $8.30 | $4.15 | -50.0% | -11.0% | -39.0% |
| Rally | 2009-02-04 | 2009-02-09 | 4 | $4.15 | $5.95 | +43.4% | +4.5% | +38.8% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-09 | 2009-03-09 | 20 | $5.95 | $1.25 | -79.0% | -22.2% | -56.8% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2009-03-19 | 9 | $1.25 | $5.05 | +304.0% | +15.9% | +288.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-03-19 | 2009-03-20 | 2 | $5.05 | $3.75 | -25.7% | -2.0% | -23.8% |
| Rally | 2009-03-20 | 2009-03-26 | 5 | $3.75 | $6.25 | +66.7% | +8.4% | +58.3% |
| Drawdown | 2009-03-26 | 2009-04-07 | 9 | $6.25 | $4.40 | -29.6% | -2.1% | -27.5% |
| Rally | 2009-04-07 | 2009-05-05 | 20 | $4.40 | $17.85 | +305.7% | +10.8% | +294.9% |
| Drawdown | 2009-05-05 | 2009-05-13 | 7 | $17.85 | $11.30 | -36.7% | -2.2% | -34.5% |
| Rally | 2009-05-13 | 2009-06-02 | 14 | $11.30 | $14.35 | +27.0% | +6.9% | +20.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-06-02 | 2009-07-08 | 26 | $14.35 | $7.25 | -49.5% | -6.9% | -42.6% |
| Rally | 2009-07-08 | 2009-09-22 | 54 | $7.25 | $33.20 | +357.9% | +21.8% | +336.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-09-22 | 2009-11-02 | 30 | $33.20 | $20.95 | -36.9% | -2.7% | -34.2% |
| Rally | 2009-11-02 | 2009-11-11 | 8 | $20.95 | $28.65 | +36.8% | +5.3% | +31.4% |
| Drawdown | 2009-11-11 | 2009-12-14 | 23 | $28.65 | $20.25 | -29.3% | +1.4% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 2009-12-14 | 2010-01-05 | 15 | $20.25 | $27.10 | +33.8% | +2.0% | +31.8% |
| Drawdown | 2010-01-05 | 2010-01-29 | 18 | $27.10 | $19.50 | -28.0% | -5.5% | -22.5% |
| Rally | 2010-01-29 | 2010-05-03 | 65 | $19.50 | $34.40 | +76.4% | +12.0% | +64.5% |
| Drawdown | 2010-05-03 | 2010-07-06 | 45 | $34.40 | $16.05 | -53.3% | -14.5% | -38.9% |
| Rally | 2010-07-06 | 2010-08-02 | 20 | $16.05 | $22.20 | +38.3% | +9.5% | +28.8% |
| Drawdown | 2010-08-02 | 2010-08-31 | 22 | $22.20 | $17.30 | -22.1% | -6.8% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 2010-08-31 | 2011-01-14 | 96 | $17.30 | $30.75 | +77.7% | +23.2% | +54.5% |
| Drawdown | 2011-01-14 | 2011-08-22 | 152 | $30.75 | $7.50 | -75.6% | -13.1% | -62.5% |
| Rally | 2011-08-22 | 2011-08-30 | 7 | $7.50 | $10.95 | +46.0% | +7.9% | +38.1% |
| Drawdown | 2011-08-30 | 2011-10-04 | 25 | $10.95 | $6.90 | -37.0% | -7.3% | -29.7% |
| Rally | 2011-10-04 | 2011-11-11 | 29 | $6.90 | $12.00 | +73.9% | +12.4% | +61.5% |
| Drawdown | 2011-11-11 | 2011-11-25 | 10 | $12.00 | $9.40 | -21.7% | -8.3% | -13.3% |
| Rally | 2011-11-25 | 2012-02-07 | 50 | $9.40 | $19.65 | +109.0% | +16.3% | +92.8% |
| Drawdown | 2012-02-07 | 2012-03-06 | 20 | $19.65 | $14.75 | -24.9% | -0.3% | -24.7% |
| Rally | 2012-03-06 | 2012-03-19 | 10 | $14.75 | $18.40 | +24.7% | +4.9% | +19.8% |
| Drawdown | 2012-03-19 | 2012-06-04 | 54 | $18.40 | $11.60 | -37.0% | -9.3% | -27.6% |
| Rally | 2012-06-04 | 2012-07-05 | 23 | $11.60 | $17.00 | +46.6% | +7.0% | +39.6% |
| Drawdown | 2012-07-05 | 2012-08-01 | 20 | $17.00 | $11.25 | -33.8% | +0.6% | -34.4% |
| Rally | 2012-08-01 | 2012-09-21 | 37 | $11.25 | $19.95 | +77.3% | +6.2% | +71.2% |
| Drawdown | 2012-09-21 | 2012-11-15 | 38 | $19.95 | $13.15 | -34.1% | -7.3% | -26.8% |
| Rally | 2012-11-15 | 2013-01-29 | 50 | $13.15 | $19.20 | +46.0% | +11.4% | +34.6% |
| Drawdown | 2013-01-29 | 2013-04-18 | 56 | $19.20 | $14.01 | -27.0% | +2.2% | -29.3% |
| Rally | 2013-04-18 | 2013-05-20 | 23 | $14.01 | $22.73 | +62.2% | +8.1% | +54.2% |
| Drawdown | 2013-05-20 | 2013-08-08 | 57 | $22.73 | $15.92 | -30.0% | +1.9% | -31.8% |
| Rally | 2013-08-08 | 2014-01-02 | 102 | $15.92 | $24.71 | +55.2% | +7.9% | +47.3% |
| Drawdown | 2014-01-02 | 2014-07-31 | 146 | $24.71 | $15.35 | -37.9% | +5.4% | -43.3% |
| Rally | 2014-07-31 | 2014-11-25 | 83 | $15.35 | $20.27 | +32.1% | +7.1% | +25.0% |
| Drawdown | 2014-11-25 | 2015-02-02 | 46 | $20.27 | $14.37 | -29.1% | -2.2% | -26.9% |
| Rally | 2015-02-02 | 2015-06-26 | 102 | $14.37 | $21.08 | +46.7% | +4.0% | +42.7% |
| Drawdown | 2015-06-26 | 2016-02-08 | 156 | $21.08 | $6.32 | -70.0% | -11.8% | -58.2% |
| Rally | 2016-02-08 | 2016-04-27 | 56 | $6.32 | $9.91 | +56.8% | +13.0% | +43.8% |
| Drawdown | 2016-04-27 | 2016-05-19 | 17 | $9.91 | $7.07 | -28.7% | -2.6% | -26.0% |
| Rally | 2016-05-19 | 2016-06-08 | 14 | $7.07 | $8.56 | +21.1% | +3.9% | +17.2% |
| Drawdown | 2016-06-08 | 2016-06-27 | 14 | $8.56 | $6.84 | -20.1% | -5.6% | -14.5% |
| Rally | 2016-06-27 | 2016-09-07 | 51 | $6.84 | $12.59 | +84.1% | +9.3% | +74.8% |
| Drawdown | 2016-09-07 | 2016-11-03 | 42 | $12.59 | $9.74 | -22.6% | -4.5% | -18.2% |
| Rally | 2016-11-03 | 2016-12-08 | 25 | $9.74 | $15.47 | +58.8% | +7.5% | +51.3% |
| Drawdown | 2016-12-08 | 2017-03-22 | 71 | $15.47 | $11.41 | -26.2% | +4.6% | -30.8% |
| Rally | 2017-03-22 | 2017-11-21 | 171 | $11.41 | $21.96 | +92.5% | +10.7% | +81.8% |
| Drawdown | 2017-11-21 | 2018-10-29 | 236 | $21.96 | $8.27 | -62.3% | +1.6% | -64.0% |
| Rally | 2018-10-29 | 2019-05-02 | 127 | $8.27 | $14.24 | +72.2% | +10.5% | +61.7% |
| Drawdown | 2019-05-02 | 2019-05-31 | 21 | $14.24 | $9.08 | -36.2% | -5.7% | -30.6% |
| Rally | 2019-05-31 | 2020-01-30 | 169 | $9.08 | $17.21 | +89.5% | +19.3% | +70.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-30 | 2020-02-04 | 4 | $17.21 | $12.89 | -25.1% | +0.4% | -25.5% |
| Rally | 2020-02-04 | 2020-02-20 | 12 | $12.89 | $15.61 | +21.1% | +2.3% | +18.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-20 | 2020-03-20 | 22 | $15.61 | $4.76 | -69.5% | -31.7% | -37.8% |
| Rally | 2020-03-20 | 2020-03-26 | 5 | $4.76 | $7.39 | +55.3% | +14.1% | +41.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-26 | 2020-04-07 | 9 | $7.39 | $4.63 | -37.3% | +1.1% | -38.5% |
| Rally | 2020-04-07 | 2021-05-07 | 274 | $4.63 | $25.31 | +446.7% | +59.2% | +387.5% |
| Drawdown | 2021-05-07 | 2021-07-19 | 50 | $25.31 | $16.18 | -36.1% | +0.6% | -36.7% |
| Rally | 2021-07-19 | 2021-12-29 | 115 | $16.18 | $23.61 | +45.9% | +12.6% | +33.4% |
| Drawdown | 2021-12-29 | 2022-06-17 | 119 | $23.61 | $10.61 | -55.1% | -23.3% | -31.7% |
| Rally | 2022-06-17 | 2022-08-16 | 41 | $10.61 | $16.25 | +53.2% | +17.2% | +36.0% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-16 | 2022-09-30 | 33 | $16.25 | $9.67 | -40.5% | -16.7% | -23.8% |
| Rally | 2022-09-30 | 2023-02-02 | 86 | $9.67 | $17.32 | +79.1% | +16.6% | +62.5% |
| Drawdown | 2023-02-02 | 2023-03-13 | 27 | $17.32 | $13.69 | -21.0% | -7.8% | -13.2% |
| Rally | 2023-03-13 | 2023-07-28 | 96 | $13.69 | $35.43 | +158.8% | +18.8% | +140.0% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-28 | 2023-10-20 | 60 | $35.43 | $22.40 | -36.8% | -7.8% | -29.0% |
| Rally | 2023-10-20 | 2023-12-28 | 48 | $22.40 | $34.13 | +52.4% | +13.2% | +39.1% |
| Drawdown | 2023-12-28 | 2024-04-18 | 77 | $34.13 | $25.79 | -24.4% | +4.8% | -29.2% |
| Rally | 2024-04-18 | 2024-07-30 | 71 | $25.79 | $34.05 | +32.0% | +8.5% | +23.5% |
| Drawdown | 2024-07-30 | 2024-08-07 | 7 | $34.05 | $25.91 | -23.9% | -4.4% | -19.5% |
| Rally | 2024-08-07 | 2024-11-25 | 78 | $25.91 | $35.73 | +37.9% | +15.2% | +22.7% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-25 | 2025-04-16 | 97 | $35.73 | $17.94 | -49.8% | -11.9% | -37.9% |
| Rally | 2025-04-16 | 2025-09-15 | 104 | $17.94 | $26.32 | +46.7% | +25.4% | +21.3% |
| Drawdown | 2025-09-15 | 2025-11-19 | 48 | $26.32 | $19.82 | -24.7% | +0.4% | -25.1% |
| Rally | 2025-11-19 | 2026-02-18 | 61 | $19.82 | $27.73 | +39.9% | +3.6% | +36.3% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-18 | 2026-03-20 | 23 | $27.73 | $18.65 | -32.7% | -5.4% | -27.3% |
| Rally | 2026-03-20 | 2026-04-22 | 23 | $18.65 | $22.96 | +23.1% | +9.7% | +13.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-04-22 | 2026-05-04 | 9 | $22.96 | $18.03 | -21.5% | +0.9% | -22.4% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-05-04 | 2026-10-19 | 117 | $18.03 | $33.48 | +85.7% | +6.8% | +78.9% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.