Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1986-12-09 | 1987-08-11 | 170 | $1.14 | $1.73 | +51.1% | +33.7% | +17.4% |
| Drawdown | 1987-08-11 | 1987-10-26 | 54 | $1.73 | $1.02 | -40.8% | -31.7% | -9.1% |
| Rally | 1987-10-26 | 1988-03-03 | 90 | $1.02 | $1.34 | +31.1% | +17.7% | +13.4% |
| Drawdown | 1988-03-03 | 1988-09-01 | 128 | $1.34 | $1.03 | -22.8% | -3.6% | -19.2% |
| Rally | 1988-09-01 | 1989-06-07 | 193 | $1.03 | $1.52 | +46.9% | +26.6% | +20.3% |
| Drawdown | 1989-06-07 | 1990-01-30 | 165 | $1.52 | $1.14 | -24.8% | -1.2% | -23.6% |
| Rally | 1990-01-30 | 1990-07-19 | 119 | $1.14 | $1.37 | +20.0% | +13.1% | +6.9% |
| Drawdown | 1990-07-19 | 1990-08-23 | 26 | $1.37 | $1.05 | -23.3% | -15.9% | -7.4% |
| Rally | 1990-08-23 | 1991-04-02 | 153 | $1.05 | $1.64 | +56.3% | +23.6% | +32.7% |
| Drawdown | 1991-04-02 | 1991-10-14 | 137 | $1.64 | $1.00 | -38.9% | +1.8% | -40.7% |
| Rally | 1991-10-14 | 1992-01-17 | 67 | $1.00 | $1.30 | +30.0% | +8.4% | +21.6% |
| Drawdown | 1992-01-17 | 1992-08-25 | 154 | $1.30 | $0.94 | -27.6% | -1.7% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 1992-08-25 | 1998-04-20 | 1,428 | $0.94 | $10.42 | +1,003.5% | +173.0% | +830.5% |
| Drawdown | 1998-04-20 | 1998-10-01 | 116 | $10.42 | $5.81 | -44.2% | -12.2% | -32.0% |
| Rally | 1998-10-01 | 1998-11-16 | 33 | $5.81 | $10.41 | +79.2% | +15.2% | +64.1% |
| Drawdown | 1998-11-16 | 1999-04-14 | 102 | $10.41 | $7.41 | -28.8% | +17.0% | -45.8% |
| Rally | 1999-04-14 | 1999-06-07 | 38 | $7.41 | $9.50 | +28.1% | +0.5% | +27.7% |
| Drawdown | 1999-06-07 | 1999-12-09 | 131 | $9.50 | $4.33 | -54.4% | +5.5% | -59.9% |
| Rally | 1999-12-09 | 2000-02-04 | 40 | $4.33 | $7.46 | +72.3% | +1.2% | +71.2% |
| Drawdown | 2000-02-04 | 2000-05-19 | 74 | $7.46 | $3.75 | -49.8% | -1.2% | -48.6% |
| Rally | 2000-05-19 | 2000-08-14 | 60 | $3.75 | $5.36 | +43.1% | +6.0% | +37.1% |
| Drawdown | 2000-08-14 | 2000-10-16 | 45 | $5.36 | $3.92 | -26.8% | -7.8% | -18.9% |
| Rally | 2000-10-16 | 2000-12-07 | 38 | $3.92 | $5.91 | +50.7% | -2.3% | +52.9% |
| Drawdown | 2000-12-07 | 2001-01-18 | 28 | $5.91 | $4.37 | -26.2% | +0.3% | -26.5% |
| Rally | 2001-01-18 | 2001-03-01 | 30 | $4.37 | $6.09 | +39.6% | -7.9% | +47.5% |
| Drawdown | 2001-03-01 | 2001-08-01 | 107 | $6.09 | $3.65 | -40.1% | -2.0% | -38.1% |
| Rally | 2001-08-01 | 2002-01-22 | 116 | $3.65 | $5.32 | +45.9% | -7.9% | +53.8% |
| Drawdown | 2002-01-22 | 2002-01-29 | 6 | $5.32 | $4.20 | -21.1% | -1.7% | -19.5% |
| Rally | 2002-01-29 | 2002-06-20 | 100 | $4.20 | $6.24 | +48.8% | -8.6% | +57.3% |
| Drawdown | 2002-06-20 | 2002-07-19 | 21 | $6.24 | $4.52 | -27.6% | -15.8% | -11.9% |
| Rally | 2002-07-19 | 2002-11-01 | 75 | $4.52 | $6.40 | +41.7% | +6.3% | +35.4% |
| Drawdown | 2002-11-01 | 2003-07-31 | 187 | $6.40 | $4.49 | -29.9% | +9.9% | -39.8% |
| Rally | 2003-07-31 | 2004-06-22 | 225 | $4.49 | $7.70 | +71.4% | +14.6% | +56.9% |
| Drawdown | 2004-06-22 | 2004-09-16 | 61 | $7.70 | $4.95 | -35.7% | -1.0% | -34.7% |
| Rally | 2004-09-16 | 2005-08-03 | 223 | $4.95 | $6.35 | +28.2% | +10.8% | +17.4% |
| Drawdown | 2005-08-03 | 2005-11-08 | 69 | $6.35 | $4.99 | -21.4% | -2.1% | -19.3% |
| Rally | 2005-11-08 | 2007-12-17 | 530 | $4.99 | $7.38 | +48.0% | +18.7% | +29.3% |
| Drawdown | 2007-12-17 | 2008-11-20 | 236 | $7.38 | $2.15 | -70.9% | -48.0% | -23.0% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-02-13 | 58 | $2.15 | $3.75 | +74.5% | +9.9% | +64.7% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-13 | 2009-03-09 | 16 | $3.75 | $2.76 | -26.4% | -18.2% | -8.2% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2011-07-22 | 600 | $2.76 | $12.69 | +360.3% | +98.8% | +261.5% |
| Drawdown | 2011-07-22 | 2011-10-03 | 51 | $12.69 | $10.10 | -20.4% | -18.3% | -2.2% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2016-09-08 | 1,242 | $10.10 | $31.24 | +209.4% | +98.4% | +110.9% |
| Drawdown | 2016-09-08 | 2016-12-06 | 63 | $31.24 | $23.89 | -23.5% | +1.4% | -25.0% |
| Rally | 2016-12-06 | 2019-10-18 | 722 | $23.89 | $48.18 | +101.7% | +35.0% | +66.7% |
| Drawdown | 2019-10-18 | 2020-03-23 | 107 | $48.18 | $24.68 | -48.8% | -25.1% | -23.7% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2020-09-15 | 123 | $24.68 | $37.64 | +52.5% | +52.0% | +0.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-09-15 | 2020-11-06 | 39 | $37.64 | $28.27 | -24.9% | +3.2% | -28.1% |
| Rally | 2020-11-06 | 2021-06-22 | 156 | $28.27 | $53.39 | +88.9% | +21.0% | +67.9% |
| Drawdown | 2021-06-22 | 2022-03-07 | 179 | $53.39 | $37.63 | -29.5% | -1.1% | -28.5% |
| Rally | 2022-03-07 | 2022-08-16 | 113 | $37.63 | $49.13 | +30.6% | +2.5% | +28.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-16 | 2022-09-30 | 33 | $49.13 | $37.88 | -22.9% | -16.7% | -6.2% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2022-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | 1,029 | $37.88 | $117.29 | +209.7% | +105.1% | +104.6% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.