Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 1973-03-14 | 1973-05-18 | 47 | $1.54 | $0.67 | -56.5% | -9.7% | -46.8% |
| Rally | 1973-05-18 | 1973-06-08 | 15 | $0.67 | $0.92 | +38.2% | +3.1% | +35.1% |
| Drawdown | 1973-06-08 | 1973-09-14 | 69 | $0.92 | $0.61 | -34.3% | -2.4% | -31.9% |
| Rally | 1973-09-14 | 1973-09-28 | 11 | $0.61 | $0.77 | +26.8% | +3.8% | +23.0% |
| Drawdown | 1973-09-28 | 1973-12-19 | 58 | $0.77 | $0.42 | -45.7% | -12.6% | -33.2% |
| Rally | 1973-12-19 | 1974-01-07 | 12 | $0.42 | $0.51 | +22.1% | +3.4% | +18.7% |
| Drawdown | 1974-01-07 | 1974-02-11 | 26 | $0.51 | $0.38 | -25.0% | -7.6% | -17.4% |
| Rally | 1974-02-11 | 1974-03-20 | 27 | $0.38 | $0.48 | +25.3% | +7.6% | +17.7% |
| Drawdown | 1974-03-20 | 1974-07-02 | 73 | $0.48 | $0.22 | -54.1% | -13.6% | -40.5% |
| Rally | 1974-07-02 | 1974-08-07 | 26 | $0.22 | $0.35 | +58.0% | -2.0% | +60.0% |
| Drawdown | 1974-08-07 | 1974-10-28 | 58 | $0.35 | $0.24 | -30.4% | -15.2% | -15.2% |
| Rally | 1974-10-28 | 1974-11-11 | 11 | $0.24 | $0.32 | +32.7% | +7.2% | +25.5% |
| Drawdown | 1974-11-11 | 1974-12-23 | 30 | $0.32 | $0.20 | -38.4% | -12.2% | -26.1% |
| Rally | 1974-12-23 | 1975-07-09 | 137 | $0.20 | $0.46 | +131.1% | +43.7% | +87.4% |
| Drawdown | 1975-07-09 | 1975-09-15 | 48 | $0.46 | $0.32 | -29.8% | -12.6% | -17.2% |
| Rally | 1975-09-15 | 1976-02-04 | 100 | $0.32 | $0.51 | +60.3% | +23.0% | +37.3% |
| Drawdown | 1976-02-04 | 1976-06-04 | 85 | $0.51 | $0.38 | -26.5% | -2.7% | -23.8% |
| Rally | 1976-06-04 | 1976-11-26 | 122 | $0.38 | $0.47 | +25.6% | +4.0% | +21.5% |
| Drawdown | 1976-11-26 | 1977-04-26 | 105 | $0.47 | $0.36 | -25.0% | -5.9% | -19.1% |
| Rally | 1977-04-26 | 1977-11-09 | 138 | $0.36 | $0.55 | +53.1% | -4.3% | +57.3% |
| Drawdown | 1977-11-09 | 1978-04-03 | 99 | $0.55 | $0.41 | -24.2% | -4.9% | -19.3% |
| Rally | 1978-04-03 | 1978-05-17 | 33 | $0.41 | $0.52 | +26.6% | +12.6% | +14.0% |
| Drawdown | 1978-05-17 | 1978-11-07 | 122 | $0.52 | $0.35 | -32.8% | -5.8% | -27.0% |
| Rally | 1978-11-07 | 1979-09-14 | 216 | $0.35 | $0.47 | +32.5% | +15.9% | +16.6% |
| Drawdown | 1979-09-14 | 1980-03-27 | 136 | $0.47 | $0.28 | -39.6% | -9.7% | -29.9% |
| Rally | 1980-03-27 | 1981-03-18 | 246 | $0.28 | $0.48 | +71.9% | +36.7% | +35.2% |
| Drawdown | 1981-03-18 | 1981-09-30 | 137 | $0.48 | $0.35 | -28.2% | -13.4% | -14.7% |
| Rally | 1981-09-30 | 1982-12-07 | 301 | $0.35 | $0.98 | +181.0% | +22.8% | +158.1% |
| Drawdown | 1982-12-07 | 1983-01-24 | 34 | $0.98 | $0.76 | -22.5% | -1.9% | -20.6% |
| Rally | 1983-01-24 | 1983-06-13 | 98 | $0.76 | $1.28 | +68.9% | +17.8% | +51.1% |
| Drawdown | 1983-06-13 | 1983-10-03 | 79 | $1.28 | $0.89 | -30.6% | +0.6% | -31.2% |
| Rally | 1983-10-03 | 1984-06-05 | 171 | $0.89 | $1.12 | +26.9% | -7.3% | +34.2% |
| Drawdown | 1984-06-05 | 1984-07-16 | 29 | $1.12 | $0.84 | -24.9% | -1.3% | -23.6% |
| Rally | 1984-07-16 | 1986-08-29 | 538 | $0.84 | $2.36 | +179.5% | +66.8% | +112.6% |
| Drawdown | 1986-08-29 | 1986-09-30 | 22 | $2.36 | $1.80 | -23.8% | -8.5% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 1986-09-30 | 1987-03-27 | 125 | $1.80 | $2.61 | +45.2% | +28.0% | +17.2% |
| Drawdown | 1987-03-27 | 1987-05-20 | 38 | $2.61 | $2.06 | -21.1% | -6.1% | -15.0% |
| Rally | 1987-05-20 | 1987-08-05 | 54 | $2.06 | $2.87 | +39.2% | +14.5% | +24.7% |
| Drawdown | 1987-08-05 | 1987-11-10 | 69 | $2.87 | $2.00 | -30.3% | -24.9% | -5.3% |
| Rally | 1987-11-10 | 1990-07-20 | 681 | $2.00 | $4.00 | +100.0% | +51.3% | +48.7% |
| Drawdown | 1990-07-20 | 1990-10-18 | 64 | $4.00 | $2.92 | -27.0% | -15.5% | -11.5% |
| Rally | 1990-10-18 | 1992-05-07 | 393 | $2.92 | $5.00 | +71.2% | +36.0% | +35.2% |
| Drawdown | 1992-05-07 | 1992-10-09 | 109 | $5.00 | $3.95 | -20.9% | -3.2% | -17.8% |
| Rally | 1992-10-09 | 1998-08-17 | 1,479 | $3.95 | $25.27 | +539.8% | +169.1% | +370.6% |
| Drawdown | 1998-08-17 | 1998-09-21 | 25 | $25.27 | $18.28 | -27.7% | -5.5% | -22.2% |
| Rally | 1998-09-21 | 1999-02-11 | 100 | $18.28 | $30.62 | +67.5% | +22.5% | +45.1% |
| Drawdown | 1999-02-11 | 1999-06-18 | 89 | $30.62 | $21.98 | -28.2% | +7.1% | -35.3% |
| Rally | 1999-06-18 | 1999-07-27 | 27 | $21.98 | $26.45 | +20.3% | +1.5% | +18.8% |
| Drawdown | 1999-07-27 | 1999-10-15 | 58 | $26.45 | $17.56 | -33.6% | -8.5% | -25.1% |
| Rally | 1999-10-15 | 2000-01-13 | 63 | $17.56 | $25.75 | +46.7% | +16.2% | +30.5% |
| Drawdown | 2000-01-13 | 2000-03-14 | 42 | $25.75 | $14.05 | -45.5% | -6.2% | -39.2% |
| Rally | 2000-03-14 | 2000-06-15 | 66 | $14.05 | $22.13 | +57.5% | +8.8% | +48.7% |
| Drawdown | 2000-06-15 | 2000-08-11 | 41 | $22.13 | $15.98 | -27.8% | -0.5% | -27.3% |
| Rally | 2000-08-11 | 2000-11-22 | 73 | $15.98 | $22.89 | +43.3% | -10.2% | +53.4% |
| Drawdown | 2000-11-22 | 2000-12-15 | 17 | $22.89 | $14.36 | -37.3% | -0.8% | -36.5% |
| Rally | 2000-12-15 | 2002-05-17 | 353 | $14.36 | $23.54 | +64.0% | -15.7% | +79.6% |
| Drawdown | 2002-05-17 | 2002-07-19 | 44 | $23.54 | $15.91 | -32.4% | -23.4% | -9.0% |
| Rally | 2002-07-19 | 2007-05-02 | 1,205 | $15.91 | $37.52 | +135.9% | +76.5% | +59.4% |
| Drawdown | 2007-05-02 | 2008-06-27 | 293 | $37.52 | $29.14 | -22.3% | -14.5% | -7.8% |
| Rally | 2008-06-27 | 2008-09-16 | 56 | $29.14 | $36.27 | +24.5% | -5.1% | +29.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-16 | 2009-03-09 | 120 | $36.27 | $26.49 | -27.0% | -44.3% | +17.3% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2017-12-26 | 2,218 | $26.49 | $112.75 | +325.6% | +296.2% | +29.4% |
| Drawdown | 2017-12-26 | 2018-04-23 | 81 | $112.75 | $86.97 | -22.9% | -0.4% | -22.5% |
| Rally | 2018-04-23 | 2020-08-04 | 576 | $86.97 | $192.20 | +121.0% | +23.8% | +97.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-08-04 | 2022-03-14 | 406 | $192.20 | $106.99 | -44.3% | +26.2% | -70.5% |
| Rally | 2022-03-14 | 2022-05-13 | 44 | $106.99 | $133.71 | +25.0% | -3.6% | +28.6% |
| Drawdown | 2022-05-13 | 2022-06-16 | 24 | $133.71 | $103.55 | -22.6% | -8.9% | -13.7% |
| Rally | 2022-06-16 | 2023-05-03 | 221 | $103.55 | $153.18 | +47.9% | +11.6% | +36.4% |
| Drawdown | 2023-05-03 | 2023-11-01 | 127 | $153.18 | $102.40 | -33.2% | +3.6% | -36.8% |
| Rally | 2023-11-01 | 2024-12-05 | 276 | $102.40 | $155.69 | +52.0% | +43.4% | +8.7% |
| Drawdown | 2024-12-05 | 2025-12-23 | 263 | $155.69 | $92.72 | -40.4% | +13.7% | -54.2% |
| Rally | 2025-12-23 | 2026-02-27 | 45 | $92.72 | $122.35 | +32.0% | -0.4% | +32.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-27 | 2026-05-05 | 47 | $122.35 | $83.91 | -31.4% | +5.5% | -36.9% |
| Rally | 2026-05-05 | 2026-08-19 | 74 | $83.91 | $106.36 | +26.8% | +6.2% | +20.6% |
| Drawdown | 2026-08-19 | 2026-10-02 | 32 | $106.36 | $79.26 | -25.5% | +0.2% | -25.7% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-10-02 | 2026-11-05 | 25 | $79.26 | $99.70 | +25.8% | -4.8% | +30.6% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.