Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2008-06-03 | 2008-07-15 | 31 | $12.58 | $9.80 | -22.1% | -86.8% | -11.8% | -10.3% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2009-02-11 | 147 | $9.80 | $12.82 | +30.8% | +58.4% | -31.4% | +62.2% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-11 | 2009-03-12 | 22 | $12.82 | $9.92 | -22.6% | -94.7% | -10.0% | -12.7% |
| Rally | 2009-03-12 | 2009-07-24 | 97 | $9.92 | $15.48 | +56.1% | +218.0% | +30.4% | +25.7% |
| Drawdown | 2009-07-24 | 2009-12-17 | 105 | $15.48 | $11.20 | -27.6% | -54.0% | +11.9% | -39.6% |
| Rally | 2009-12-17 | 2011-05-26 | 376 | $11.20 | $15.23 | +35.9% | +22.8% | +20.9% | +15.0% |
| Drawdown | 2011-05-26 | 2011-08-11 | 56 | $15.23 | $11.45 | -24.8% | -72.2% | -11.5% | -13.2% |
| Rally | 2011-08-11 | 2013-10-17 | 571 | $11.45 | $21.50 | +87.7% | +32.0% | +47.8% | +39.9% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-17 | 2014-01-09 | 61 | $21.50 | $16.44 | -23.6% | -67.0% | +6.1% | -29.6% |
| Rally | 2014-01-09 | 2014-10-07 | 194 | $16.44 | $24.71 | +50.3% | +69.8% | +5.3% | +45.0% |
| Drawdown | 2014-10-07 | 2015-08-26 | 232 | $24.71 | $18.84 | -23.7% | -25.5% | +0.3% | -24.0% |
| Rally | 2015-08-26 | 2015-11-09 | 54 | $18.84 | $23.15 | +22.9% | +161.5% | +7.1% | +15.8% |
| Drawdown | 2015-11-09 | 2016-01-11 | 44 | $23.15 | $18.04 | -22.1% | -76.0% | -7.5% | -14.6% |
| Rally | 2016-01-11 | 2017-08-28 | 413 | $18.04 | $25.02 | +38.7% | +22.1% | +27.1% | +11.6% |
| Drawdown | 2017-08-28 | 2018-11-20 | 322 | $25.02 | $19.12 | -23.6% | -19.0% | +8.1% | -31.7% |
| Rally | 2018-11-20 | 2019-07-08 | 165 | $19.12 | $28.22 | +47.7% | +81.3% | +12.6% | +35.0% |
| Drawdown | 2019-07-08 | 2020-03-13 | 180 | $28.22 | $18.45 | -34.6% | -44.8% | -8.9% | -25.7% |
| Rally | 2020-03-13 | 2021-08-30 | 373 | $18.45 | $35.04 | +89.9% | +54.2% | +67.1% | +22.9% |
| Drawdown | 2021-08-30 | 2022-06-17 | 201 | $35.04 | $17.00 | -51.5% | -59.6% | -18.9% | -32.6% |
| Rally | 2022-06-17 | 2022-07-04 | 12 | $17.00 | $20.59 | +21.1% | +5,516.2% | +4.1% | +17.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-07-04 | 2022-10-13 | 73 | $20.59 | $15.90 | -22.8% | -59.1% | -4.1% | -18.7% |
| Rally | 2022-10-13 | 2023-01-23 | 69 | $15.90 | $19.60 | +23.3% | +114.7% | +9.5% | +13.7% |
| Drawdown | 2023-01-23 | 2023-10-03 | 176 | $19.60 | $11.42 | -41.7% | -53.9% | +5.2% | -46.9% |
| Rally | 2023-10-03 | 2023-11-06 | 24 | $11.42 | $13.83 | +21.1% | +643.9% | +3.2% | +17.8% |
| Drawdown | 2023-11-06 | 2024-04-16 | 112 | $13.83 | $9.76 | -29.4% | -54.3% | +15.7% | -45.1% |
| Rally | 2024-04-16 | 2024-09-02 | 96 | $9.76 | $14.90 | +52.6% | +203.3% | +11.8% | +40.8% |
| Drawdown | 2024-09-02 | 2024-10-14 | 31 | $14.90 | $11.76 | -21.1% | -85.4% | +3.7% | -24.8% |
| Rally | 2024-10-14 | 2025-05-07 | 137 | $11.76 | $19.00 | +61.6% | +141.7% | -3.9% | +65.5% |
| Drawdown | 2025-05-07 | 2025-12-19 | 160 | $19.00 | $10.76 | -43.4% | -59.2% | +21.4% | -64.7% |
| Rally | 2025-12-19 | 2026-10-16 | 206 | $10.76 | $18.30 | +70.2% | +91.6% | +12.1% | +58.1% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-10-16 | 2026-11-06 | 16 | $18.30 | $12.76 | -30.3% | -99.7% | -3.7% | -26.6% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.