Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2007-12-12 | 2008-01-22 | 23 | $172.94 | $102.98 | -40.5% | -11.8% | -28.6% |
| Rally | 2008-01-22 | 2008-01-30 | 7 | $102.98 | $126.56 | +22.9% | +3.5% | +19.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-01-30 | 2008-04-29 | 60 | $126.56 | $93.55 | -26.1% | +2.6% | -28.7% |
| Rally | 2008-04-29 | 2008-08-26 | 82 | $93.55 | $146.22 | +56.3% | -8.6% | +64.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-26 | 2008-12-03 | 68 | $146.22 | $108.48 | -25.8% | -31.5% | +5.7% |
| Rally | 2008-12-03 | 2009-01-06 | 20 | $108.48 | $132.85 | +22.5% | +7.3% | +15.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-06 | 2009-01-21 | 12 | $132.85 | $102.19 | -23.1% | -10.1% | -13.0% |
| Rally | 2009-01-21 | 2009-01-22 | 2 | $102.19 | $125.78 | +23.1% | -1.5% | +24.6% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-22 | 2009-02-24 | 23 | $125.78 | $83.33 | -33.7% | -6.6% | -27.2% |
| Rally | 2009-02-24 | 2009-03-03 | 6 | $83.33 | $110.84 | +33.0% | -9.9% | +43.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-03-03 | 2009-09-09 | 133 | $110.84 | $75.41 | -32.0% | +48.4% | -80.4% |
| Rally | 2009-09-09 | 2009-09-25 | 9 | $75.41 | $106.22 | +40.9% | +1.1% | +39.8% |
| Drawdown | 2009-09-25 | 2010-05-25 | 163 | $106.22 | $59.19 | -44.3% | +2.8% | -47.1% |
| Rally | 2010-05-25 | 2011-07-22 | 287 | $59.19 | $235.15 | +297.3% | +25.2% | +272.0% |
| Drawdown | 2011-07-22 | 2011-08-09 | 13 | $235.15 | $150.01 | -36.2% | -12.8% | -23.4% |
| Rally | 2011-08-09 | 2011-09-15 | 22 | $150.01 | $218.93 | +45.9% | +3.1% | +42.8% |
| Drawdown | 2011-09-15 | 2011-10-04 | 14 | $218.93 | $162.06 | -26.0% | -7.0% | -18.9% |
| Rally | 2011-10-04 | 2011-11-09 | 27 | $162.06 | $204.62 | +26.3% | +9.4% | +16.9% |
| Drawdown | 2011-11-09 | 2011-12-15 | 27 | $204.62 | $163.70 | -20.0% | -1.1% | -18.9% |
| Rally | 2011-12-15 | 2012-05-02 | 96 | $163.70 | $261.91 | +60.0% | +15.3% | +44.7% |
| Drawdown | 2012-05-02 | 2012-06-14 | 30 | $261.91 | $188.25 | -28.1% | -5.2% | -22.9% |
| Rally | 2012-06-14 | 2012-07-27 | 32 | $188.25 | $245.54 | +30.4% | +4.3% | +26.2% |
| Drawdown | 2012-07-27 | 2014-01-29 | 365 | $245.54 | $135.71 | -44.7% | +28.0% | -72.7% |
| Rally | 2014-01-29 | 2014-08-19 | 133 | $135.71 | $682.78 | +403.1% | +11.7% | +391.4% |
| Drawdown | 2014-08-19 | 2015-03-09 | 140 | $682.78 | $415.06 | -39.2% | +4.9% | -44.1% |
| Rally | 2015-03-09 | 2015-04-02 | 19 | $415.06 | $520.98 | +25.5% | -0.6% | +26.1% |
| Drawdown | 2015-04-02 | 2015-07-30 | 78 | $520.98 | $278.91 | -46.5% | +2.0% | -48.5% |
| Rally | 2015-07-30 | 2015-09-09 | 29 | $278.91 | $371.30 | +33.1% | -7.9% | +41.0% |
| Drawdown | 2015-09-09 | 2015-11-09 | 42 | $371.30 | $296.35 | -20.2% | +7.0% | -27.2% |
| Rally | 2015-11-09 | 2016-12-29 | 281 | $296.35 | $472.37 | +59.4% | +8.2% | +51.2% |
| Drawdown | 2016-12-29 | 2018-01-08 | 262 | $472.37 | $362.93 | -23.2% | +22.2% | -45.3% |
| Rally | 2018-01-08 | 2018-07-17 | 137 | $362.93 | $635.84 | +75.2% | +2.3% | +72.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-07-17 | 2019-02-15 | 154 | $635.84 | $461.21 | -27.5% | -1.2% | -26.3% |
| Rally | 2019-02-15 | 2019-04-05 | 36 | $461.21 | $600.02 | +30.1% | +4.2% | +25.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-05 | 2019-05-03 | 21 | $600.02 | $447.78 | -25.4% | +1.8% | -27.2% |
| Rally | 2019-05-03 | 2019-05-08 | 4 | $447.78 | $550.77 | +23.0% | -2.2% | +25.2% |
| Drawdown | 2019-05-08 | 2020-08-12 | 318 | $550.77 | $268.70 | -51.2% | +17.4% | -68.6% |
| Rally | 2020-08-12 | 2022-09-08 | 504 | $268.70 | $835.35 | +210.9% | +18.5% | +192.4% |
| Drawdown | 2022-09-08 | 2023-10-13 | 268 | $835.35 | $425.86 | -49.0% | +8.0% | -57.0% |
| Rally | 2023-10-13 | 2023-11-22 | 29 | $425.86 | $615.13 | +44.4% | +5.3% | +39.2% |
| Drawdown | 2023-11-22 | 2025-06-25 | 370 | $615.13 | $224.60 | -63.5% | +33.7% | -97.2% |
| Rally | 2025-06-25 | 2025-10-24 | 87 | $224.60 | $378.67 | +68.6% | +11.5% | +57.1% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2025-10-24 | 2026-11-06 | 263 | $378.67 | $240.00 | -36.6% | +8.6% | -45.2% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.