Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2006-05-25 | 2008-09-02 | 524 | $13.24 | $21.76 | +64.4% | +27.0% | +0.4% | +64.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-02 | 2008-10-10 | 23 | $21.76 | $16.60 | -23.7% | -94.9% | -29.6% | +5.9% |
| Rally | 2008-10-10 | 2015-07-29 | 1,656 | $16.60 | $507.90 | +2,960.4% | +68.3% | +134.5% | +2,825.9% |
| Drawdown | 2015-07-29 | 2016-02-05 | 132 | $507.90 | $382.02 | -24.8% | -41.9% | -10.8% | -13.9% |
| Rally | 2016-02-05 | 2018-07-19 | 616 | $382.02 | $971.78 | +154.4% | +46.5% | +49.2% | +105.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-07-19 | 2018-12-21 | 109 | $971.78 | $719.60 | -26.0% | -50.1% | -13.8% | -12.1% |
| Rally | 2018-12-21 | 2020-02-13 | 287 | $719.60 | $1,357.68 | +88.7% | +74.6% | +39.6% | +49.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-13 | 2020-03-18 | 24 | $1,357.68 | $1,028.82 | -24.2% | -94.6% | -28.9% | +4.7% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2021-12-29 | 448 | $1,028.82 | $2,304.21 | +124.0% | +57.4% | +99.9% | +24.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-12-29 | 2022-06-16 | 118 | $2,304.21 | $1,764.95 | -23.4% | -43.4% | -23.5% | +0.1% |
| Rally | 2022-06-16 | 2025-05-08 | 727 | $1,764.95 | $5,168.46 | +192.8% | +45.1% | +54.5% | +138.4% |
| Drawdown | 2025-05-08 | 2026-02-17 | 195 | $5,168.46 | $2,254.59 | -56.4% | -65.8% | +20.8% | -77.2% |
| Rally | 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-09 | 15 | $2,254.59 | $2,970.27 | +31.7% | +10,166.9% | -0.7% | +32.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-03-09 | 2026-04-10 | 24 | $2,970.27 | $2,292.86 | -22.8% | -93.4% | +0.3% | -23.1% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-04-10 | 2026-11-06 | 146 | $2,292.86 | $3,526.52 | +53.8% | +110.2% | +8.2% | +45.6% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.