Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Symbol
DB.US
Window
1996-11-18 – 2026-11-06
Min reversal 20%
Regimes
84
Current regime
Drawdown
since 2026-09-03 · -16.2%
Stock return
+89.3%
S&P 500
+900.9%
Excess
-811.6%
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Close
Rally
Drawdown
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
DB.US
S&P 500
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1996-12-24 | 1997-10-09 | 201 | $17.48 | $29.97 | +71.4% | +96.5% | +29.2% | +42.1% |
| Drawdown | 1997-10-09 | 1998-01-21 | 71 | $29.97 | $23.81 | -20.5% | -55.8% | +0.0% | -20.5% |
| Rally | 1998-01-21 | 1998-05-22 | 86 | $23.81 | $36.80 | +54.5% | +258.1% | +14.4% | +40.2% |
| Drawdown | 1998-05-22 | 1998-10-09 | 98 | $36.80 | $19.74 | -46.4% | -79.8% | -11.4% | -35.0% |
| Rally | 1998-10-09 | 1999-01-06 | 61 | $19.74 | $26.84 | +36.0% | +255.9% | +29.3% | +6.7% |
| Drawdown | 1999-01-06 | 1999-03-01 | 37 | $26.84 | $19.94 | -25.7% | -86.8% | -2.8% | -22.9% |
| Rally | 1999-03-01 | 2000-03-07 | 259 | $19.94 | $40.29 | +102.0% | +98.2% | +9.7% | +92.4% |
| Drawdown | 2000-03-07 | 2000-03-31 | 19 | $40.29 | $28.95 | -28.1% | -98.8% | +10.5% | -38.7% |
| Rally | 2000-03-31 | 2000-07-25 | 80 | $28.95 | $42.11 | +45.4% | +225.4% | -1.6% | +47.0% |
| Drawdown | 2000-07-25 | 2000-10-18 | 61 | $42.11 | $31.52 | -25.1% | -69.8% | -9.0% | -16.2% |
| Rally | 2000-10-18 | 2001-01-31 | 72 | $31.52 | $43.90 | +39.3% | +218.7% | +1.8% | +37.5% |
| Drawdown | 2001-01-31 | 2001-03-22 | 36 | $43.90 | $29.23 | -33.4% | -94.2% | -18.2% | -15.2% |
| Rally | 2001-03-22 | 2001-05-21 | 42 | $29.23 | $37.85 | +29.5% | +371.6% | +17.5% | +12.0% |
| Drawdown | 2001-05-21 | 2001-09-21 | 83 | $37.85 | $20.18 | -46.7% | -85.2% | -26.4% | -20.3% |
| Rally | 2001-09-21 | 2002-01-04 | 73 | $20.18 | $33.64 | +66.7% | +483.5% | +21.4% | +45.3% |
| Drawdown | 2002-01-04 | 2002-02-21 | 33 | $33.64 | $25.40 | -24.5% | -88.3% | -7.8% | -16.7% |
| Rally | 2002-02-21 | 2002-05-31 | 70 | $25.40 | $33.35 | +31.3% | +166.5% | -1.3% | +32.6% |
| Drawdown | 2002-05-31 | 2002-10-09 | 92 | $33.35 | $16.88 | -49.4% | -84.5% | -27.2% | -22.2% |
| Rally | 2002-10-09 | 2002-12-02 | 38 | $16.88 | $24.17 | +43.1% | +978.4% | +20.3% | +22.8% |
| Drawdown | 2002-12-02 | 2003-03-12 | 69 | $24.17 | $17.38 | -28.1% | -70.0% | -13.9% | -14.1% |
| Rally | 2003-03-12 | 2004-03-05 | 249 | $17.38 | $44.08 | +153.5% | +156.4% | +43.9% | +109.7% |
| Drawdown | 2004-03-05 | 2004-08-13 | 112 | $44.08 | $31.30 | -29.0% | -53.7% | -8.0% | -21.0% |
| Rally | 2004-08-13 | 2007-05-11 | 691 | $31.30 | $82.03 | +162.1% | +42.1% | +41.4% | +120.7% |
| Drawdown | 2007-05-11 | 2008-07-15 | 297 | $82.03 | $43.72 | -46.7% | -41.4% | -19.3% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2008-08-05 | 16 | $43.72 | $53.21 | +21.7% | +2,106.5% | +5.8% | +15.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-05 | 2008-10-28 | 60 | $53.21 | $17.31 | -67.5% | -99.1% | -26.8% | -40.7% |
| Rally | 2008-10-28 | 2008-11-04 | 6 | $17.31 | $25.90 | +49.6% | +2,235,861,849.6% | +6.9% | +42.7% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-20 | 13 | $25.90 | $12.54 | -51.6% | -100.0% | -25.2% | -26.4% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-01-02 | 29 | $12.54 | $22.57 | +80.0% | +16,441.6% | +23.8% | +56.2% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-20 | 12 | $22.57 | $11.69 | -48.2% | -100.0% | -13.6% | -34.6% |
| Rally | 2009-01-20 | 2009-02-09 | 15 | $11.69 | $16.42 | +40.5% | +30,092.8% | +8.0% | +32.4% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-09 | 2009-02-23 | 10 | $16.42 | $11.69 | -28.8% | -100.0% | -14.5% | -14.2% |
| Rally | 2009-02-23 | 2009-10-15 | 165 | $11.69 | $46.92 | +301.3% | +734.8% | +47.5% | +253.7% |
| Drawdown | 2009-10-15 | 2010-02-08 | 79 | $46.92 | $32.05 | -31.7% | -70.3% | -3.6% | -28.1% |
| Rally | 2010-02-08 | 2010-04-15 | 47 | $32.05 | $45.24 | +41.1% | +534.4% | +14.7% | +26.5% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-15 | 2010-06-07 | 37 | $45.24 | $30.42 | -32.8% | -93.3% | -13.3% | -19.4% |
| Rally | 2010-06-07 | 2010-08-06 | 44 | $30.42 | $41.74 | +37.2% | +512.1% | +6.8% | +30.4% |
| Drawdown | 2010-08-06 | 2010-11-30 | 81 | $41.74 | $29.43 | -29.5% | -66.3% | +5.3% | -34.8% |
| Rally | 2010-11-30 | 2011-02-16 | 55 | $29.43 | $40.27 | +36.8% | +320.9% | +13.2% | +23.6% |
| Drawdown | 2011-02-16 | 2011-09-22 | 152 | $40.27 | $18.50 | -54.1% | -72.5% | -15.5% | -38.6% |
| Rally | 2011-09-22 | 2011-10-27 | 26 | $18.50 | $29.57 | +59.9% | +9,348.9% | +13.7% | +46.2% |
| Drawdown | 2011-10-27 | 2011-11-25 | 21 | $29.57 | $20.21 | -31.6% | -99.0% | -9.8% | -21.8% |
| Rally | 2011-11-25 | 2012-03-26 | 83 | $20.21 | $32.60 | +61.3% | +326.9% | +22.3% | +39.0% |
| Drawdown | 2012-03-26 | 2012-07-25 | 85 | $32.60 | $17.56 | -46.1% | -84.0% | -5.6% | -40.6% |
| Rally | 2012-07-25 | 2013-02-01 | 131 | $17.56 | $33.85 | +92.8% | +253.4% | +13.1% | +79.7% |
| Drawdown | 2013-02-01 | 2013-04-18 | 53 | $33.85 | $24.72 | -27.0% | -77.6% | +1.9% | -28.8% |
| Rally | 2013-04-18 | 2014-01-15 | 189 | $24.72 | $35.68 | +44.3% | +63.1% | +19.9% | +24.4% |
| Drawdown | 2014-01-15 | 2015-01-28 | 261 | $35.68 | $19.69 | -44.8% | -43.7% | +8.3% | -53.1% |
| Rally | 2015-01-28 | 2015-04-06 | 47 | $19.69 | $25.42 | +29.1% | +293.5% | +3.9% | +25.2% |
| Drawdown | 2015-04-06 | 2016-02-09 | 215 | $25.42 | $11.12 | -56.2% | -62.0% | -11.0% | -45.3% |
| Rally | 2016-02-09 | 2016-03-11 | 23 | $11.12 | $14.91 | +34.1% | +2,383.8% | +9.2% | +24.9% |
| Drawdown | 2016-03-11 | 2016-04-07 | 19 | $14.91 | $11.14 | -25.3% | -97.9% | +1.0% | -26.2% |
| Rally | 2016-04-07 | 2016-04-28 | 16 | $11.14 | $14.07 | +26.3% | +3,845.7% | +1.7% | +24.6% |
| Drawdown | 2016-04-28 | 2016-06-14 | 33 | $14.07 | $10.65 | -24.3% | -88.1% | 0.0% | -24.3% |
| Rally | 2016-06-14 | 2016-06-23 | 8 | $10.65 | $12.90 | +21.1% | +41,643.5% | +1.8% | +19.3% |
| Drawdown | 2016-06-23 | 2016-08-02 | 28 | $12.90 | $9.10 | -29.5% | -95.7% | +2.1% | -31.6% |
| Rally | 2016-08-02 | 2016-09-09 | 28 | $9.10 | $11.03 | +21.3% | +468.7% | -1.4% | +22.7% |
| Drawdown | 2016-09-09 | 2016-09-29 | 15 | $11.03 | $8.30 | -24.8% | -99.2% | +1.1% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 2016-09-29 | 2017-12-18 | 308 | $8.30 | $16.46 | +98.3% | +75.1% | +25.1% | +73.3% |
| Drawdown | 2017-12-18 | 2018-06-27 | 132 | $16.46 | $8.59 | -47.8% | -71.1% | +0.4% | -48.2% |
| Rally | 2018-06-27 | 2018-07-31 | 24 | $8.59 | $10.81 | +25.8% | +1,015.2% | +4.3% | +21.5% |
| Drawdown | 2018-07-31 | 2019-08-15 | 263 | $10.81 | $5.42 | -49.8% | -48.4% | +1.1% | -50.9% |
| Rally | 2019-08-15 | 2020-02-14 | 127 | $5.42 | $9.30 | +71.4% | +191.4% | +18.7% | +52.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-14 | 2020-03-16 | 21 | $9.30 | $4.61 | -50.4% | -100.0% | -29.4% | -21.0% |
| Rally | 2020-03-16 | 2020-06-08 | 59 | $4.61 | $8.59 | +86.1% | +1,320.6% | +35.5% | +50.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-08 | 2020-09-25 | 78 | $8.59 | $6.74 | -21.6% | -54.4% | +2.0% | -23.6% |
| Rally | 2020-09-25 | 2021-06-03 | 173 | $6.74 | $12.79 | +89.9% | +154.5% | +27.1% | +62.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-06-03 | 2021-07-19 | 32 | $12.79 | $9.86 | -22.9% | -87.1% | +1.6% | -24.5% |
| Rally | 2021-07-19 | 2022-02-10 | 145 | $9.86 | $13.90 | +40.9% | +81.5% | +5.8% | +35.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-10 | 2022-03-07 | 17 | $13.90 | $8.03 | -42.2% | -100.0% | -6.7% | -35.5% |
| Rally | 2022-03-07 | 2022-03-29 | 17 | $8.03 | $11.14 | +38.8% | +12,839.2% | +10.2% | +28.6% |
| Drawdown | 2022-03-29 | 2022-05-12 | 32 | $11.14 | $7.95 | -28.6% | -93.0% | -15.1% | -13.5% |
| Rally | 2022-05-12 | 2022-05-27 | 12 | $7.95 | $9.68 | +21.7% | +6,112.5% | +5.8% | +15.9% |
| Drawdown | 2022-05-27 | 2022-07-14 | 32 | $9.68 | $6.60 | -31.8% | -95.1% | -8.8% | -23.0% |
| Rally | 2022-07-14 | 2022-08-12 | 22 | $6.60 | $8.06 | +22.2% | +890.7% | +12.9% | +9.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-12 | 2022-09-30 | 35 | $8.06 | $6.37 | -21.0% | -81.7% | -16.2% | -4.8% |
| Rally | 2022-09-30 | 2023-02-01 | 85 | $6.37 | $11.60 | +82.3% | +493.1% | +14.9% | +67.4% |
| Drawdown | 2023-02-01 | 2023-03-24 | 37 | $11.60 | $8.04 | -30.7% | -91.8% | -3.6% | -27.1% |
| Rally | 2023-03-24 | 2025-03-25 | 502 | $8.04 | $23.06 | +186.8% | +69.7% | +45.5% | +141.3% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-25 | 2025-04-07 | 10 | $23.06 | $17.81 | -22.8% | -99.9% | -12.4% | -10.4% |
| Rally | 2025-04-07 | 2026-01-27 | 203 | $17.81 | $37.86 | +112.5% | +155.0% | +37.9% | +74.7% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-27 | 2026-03-27 | 43 | $37.86 | $26.63 | -29.7% | -87.3% | -8.7% | -20.9% |
| Rally | 2026-03-27 | 2026-09-03 | 111 | $26.63 | $41.56 | +56.1% | +174.7% | +21.7% | +34.4% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-09-03 | 2026-11-06 | 46 | $41.56 | $34.84 | -16.2% | -61.9% | -4.8% | -11.4% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.