Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1984-12-10 | 1985-07-26 | 159 | $0.10 | $0.18 | +72.9% | +18.2% | +54.7% |
| Drawdown | 1985-07-26 | 1985-12-10 | 95 | $0.18 | $0.12 | -29.0% | +6.2% | -35.2% |
| Rally | 1985-12-10 | 1986-06-19 | 133 | $0.12 | $0.24 | +92.6% | +19.4% | +73.2% |
| Drawdown | 1986-06-19 | 1986-08-05 | 33 | $0.24 | $0.18 | -26.9% | -2.9% | -24.0% |
| Rally | 1986-08-05 | 1987-09-28 | 291 | $0.18 | $0.61 | +249.9% | +36.4% | +213.6% |
| Drawdown | 1987-09-28 | 1987-12-04 | 49 | $0.61 | $0.24 | -60.9% | -30.7% | -30.2% |
| Rally | 1987-12-04 | 1988-07-05 | 147 | $0.24 | $0.74 | +207.6% | +23.2% | +184.5% |
| Drawdown | 1988-07-05 | 1988-11-23 | 101 | $0.74 | $0.47 | -36.3% | -2.5% | -33.8% |
| Rally | 1988-11-23 | 1989-08-08 | 178 | $0.47 | $0.67 | +42.2% | +29.9% | +12.3% |
| Drawdown | 1989-08-08 | 1989-10-13 | 48 | $0.67 | $0.53 | -20.0% | -4.5% | -15.5% |
| Rally | 1989-10-13 | 1989-11-21 | 28 | $0.53 | $0.66 | +24.1% | +1.8% | +22.4% |
| Drawdown | 1989-11-21 | 1990-01-30 | 48 | $0.66 | $0.52 | -22.2% | -4.9% | -17.3% |
| Rally | 1990-01-30 | 1990-07-30 | 126 | $0.52 | $0.85 | +64.3% | +10.1% | +54.2% |
| Drawdown | 1990-07-30 | 1990-08-23 | 19 | $0.85 | $0.57 | -32.6% | -13.6% | -19.0% |
| Rally | 1990-08-23 | 1990-09-10 | 12 | $0.57 | $0.69 | +20.2% | +4.7% | +15.4% |
| Drawdown | 1990-09-10 | 1990-11-01 | 39 | $0.69 | $0.52 | -24.2% | -4.5% | -19.6% |
| Rally | 1990-11-01 | 1991-07-19 | 180 | $0.52 | $0.86 | +64.6% | +25.1% | +39.5% |
| Drawdown | 1991-07-19 | 1991-12-20 | 109 | $0.86 | $0.66 | -22.6% | +0.7% | -23.3% |
| Rally | 1991-12-20 | 1997-01-31 | 1,293 | $0.66 | $3.82 | +475.3% | +103.1% | +372.2% |
| Drawdown | 1997-01-31 | 1997-04-03 | 43 | $3.82 | $3.03 | -20.7% | -4.6% | -16.1% |
| Rally | 1997-04-03 | 1998-07-17 | 326 | $3.03 | $7.00 | +131.4% | +58.2% | +73.2% |
| Drawdown | 1998-07-17 | 1998-10-08 | 59 | $7.00 | $4.50 | -35.8% | -19.2% | -16.6% |
| Rally | 1998-10-08 | 1999-04-27 | 138 | $4.50 | $10.50 | +133.5% | +42.0% | +91.5% |
| Drawdown | 1999-04-27 | 2000-03-08 | 220 | $10.50 | $5.69 | -45.8% | +0.3% | -46.1% |
| Rally | 2000-03-08 | 2000-05-01 | 38 | $5.69 | $9.03 | +58.6% | +7.4% | +51.2% |
| Drawdown | 2000-05-01 | 2000-07-17 | 54 | $9.03 | $6.99 | -22.6% | +2.9% | -25.5% |
| Rally | 2000-07-17 | 2000-12-28 | 116 | $6.99 | $10.55 | +50.9% | -11.7% | +62.5% |
| Drawdown | 2000-12-28 | 2001-04-11 | 72 | $10.55 | $7.98 | -24.3% | -12.6% | -11.7% |
| Rally | 2001-04-11 | 2001-06-26 | 53 | $7.98 | $10.01 | +25.4% | +4.4% | +21.1% |
| Drawdown | 2001-06-26 | 2001-09-20 | 57 | $10.01 | $7.00 | -30.1% | -19.1% | -11.1% |
| Rally | 2001-09-20 | 2002-04-16 | 143 | $7.00 | $11.59 | +65.6% | +14.6% | +51.0% |
| Drawdown | 2002-04-16 | 2002-09-18 | 109 | $11.59 | $8.19 | -29.3% | -22.9% | -6.4% |
| Rally | 2002-09-18 | 2007-12-24 | 1,327 | $8.19 | $27.45 | +235.1% | +72.1% | +163.0% |
| Drawdown | 2007-12-24 | 2008-03-10 | 52 | $27.45 | $21.73 | -20.8% | -14.9% | -5.9% |
| Rally | 2008-03-10 | 2008-08-14 | 111 | $21.73 | $26.20 | +20.6% | +1.5% | +19.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-14 | 2009-03-09 | 142 | $26.20 | $14.91 | -43.1% | -47.7% | +4.6% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2011-04-28 | 541 | $14.91 | $34.77 | +133.2% | +101.1% | +32.1% |
| Drawdown | 2011-04-28 | 2011-10-03 | 110 | $34.77 | $25.23 | -27.5% | -19.2% | -8.3% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2020-01-30 | 2,095 | $25.23 | $145.12 | +475.3% | +198.7% | +276.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-30 | 2020-03-23 | 37 | $145.12 | $104.20 | -28.2% | -31.9% | +3.7% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2021-09-03 | 368 | $104.20 | $287.05 | +175.5% | +102.7% | +72.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-09-03 | 2022-05-11 | 173 | $287.05 | $205.19 | -28.5% | -13.2% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 2022-05-11 | 2022-08-15 | 66 | $205.19 | $261.92 | +27.6% | +9.2% | +18.4% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-15 | 2023-10-30 | 305 | $261.92 | $181.88 | -30.6% | -3.0% | -27.5% |
| Rally | 2023-10-30 | 2024-08-01 | 190 | $181.88 | $276.75 | +52.2% | +30.7% | +21.4% |
| Drawdown | 2024-08-01 | 2025-04-08 | 172 | $276.75 | $172.78 | -37.6% | -8.5% | -29.1% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2026-01-21 | 198 | $172.78 | $240.61 | +39.3% | +38.0% | +1.3% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-21 | 2026-05-15 | 81 | $240.61 | $161.29 | -33.0% | +7.8% | -40.7% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-05-15 | 2026-11-05 | 121 | $161.29 | $226.34 | +40.3% | -0.7% | +41.1% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.