Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2017-12-08 | 2017-12-28 | 14 | $21.45 | $15.04 | -29.9% | -99.8% | +1.4% | -31.2% |
| Rally | 2017-12-28 | 2018-02-16 | 35 | $15.04 | $24.80 | +64.9% | +3,563.3% | +1.7% | +63.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-02-16 | 2018-07-30 | 113 | $24.80 | $12.46 | -49.8% | -78.5% | +2.6% | -52.3% |
| Rally | 2018-07-30 | 2018-10-02 | 46 | $12.46 | $21.75 | +74.6% | +2,015.5% | +4.3% | +70.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-10-02 | 2018-10-24 | 17 | $21.75 | $13.88 | -36.2% | -99.9% | -9.1% | -27.0% |
| Rally | 2018-10-24 | 2019-03-14 | 96 | $13.88 | $24.65 | +77.6% | +351.6% | +5.7% | +71.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-03-14 | 2019-03-22 | 7 | $24.65 | $19.45 | -21.1% | -100.0% | -0.3% | -20.8% |
| Rally | 2019-03-22 | 2019-04-10 | 14 | $19.45 | $28.14 | +44.7% | +77,040.2% | +3.1% | +41.6% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-10 | 2019-10-18 | 134 | $28.14 | $14.40 | -48.8% | -71.6% | +3.4% | -52.2% |
| Rally | 2019-10-18 | 2020-01-27 | 68 | $14.40 | $27.98 | +94.3% | +1,072.4% | +8.6% | +85.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-27 | 2020-03-16 | 35 | $27.98 | $14.20 | -49.2% | -99.2% | -26.4% | -22.8% |
| Rally | 2020-03-16 | 2020-12-22 | 197 | $14.20 | $93.56 | +558.9% | +1,015.3% | +54.5% | +504.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-12-22 | 2021-04-12 | 75 | $93.56 | $50.30 | -46.2% | -87.6% | +12.0% | -58.2% |
| Rally | 2021-04-12 | 2021-06-30 | 57 | $50.30 | $78.44 | +55.9% | +613.1% | +4.1% | +51.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-06-30 | 2021-10-19 | 78 | $78.44 | $44.28 | -43.5% | -84.2% | +5.2% | -48.7% |
| Rally | 2021-10-19 | 2021-11-05 | 14 | $44.28 | $55.02 | +24.3% | +4,884.6% | +3.9% | +20.3% |
| Drawdown | 2021-11-05 | 2022-01-18 | 50 | $55.02 | $31.42 | -42.9% | -94.1% | -2.6% | -40.3% |
| Rally | 2022-01-18 | 2022-02-09 | 17 | $31.42 | $38.35 | +22.1% | +1,819.2% | +0.2% | +21.8% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-09 | 2022-03-14 | 23 | $38.35 | $29.00 | -24.4% | -95.3% | -9.0% | -15.4% |
| Rally | 2022-03-14 | 2022-04-04 | 16 | $29.00 | $35.19 | +21.3% | +2,005.4% | +9.8% | +11.5% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-04 | 2022-05-11 | 27 | $35.19 | $20.88 | -40.7% | -99.2% | -14.1% | -26.5% |
| Rally | 2022-05-11 | 2022-08-10 | 63 | $20.88 | $38.53 | +84.5% | +1,059.5% | +7.0% | +77.5% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-10 | 2022-09-26 | 33 | $38.53 | $25.97 | -32.6% | -95.1% | -13.2% | -19.4% |
| Rally | 2022-09-26 | 2022-10-13 | 14 | $25.97 | $33.92 | +30.6% | +12,138.0% | +0.4% | +30.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-10-13 | 2022-11-09 | 20 | $33.92 | $26.84 | -20.9% | -94.8% | +2.1% | -23.0% |
| Rally | 2022-11-09 | 2023-02-02 | 58 | $26.84 | $32.67 | +21.7% | +134.9% | +11.5% | +10.2% |
| Drawdown | 2023-02-02 | 2023-03-30 | 40 | $32.67 | $21.91 | -32.9% | -91.9% | -3.1% | -29.9% |
| Rally | 2023-03-30 | 2023-06-13 | 52 | $21.91 | $32.96 | +50.4% | +623.5% | +7.9% | +42.6% |
| Drawdown | 2023-06-13 | 2023-11-13 | 107 | $32.96 | $16.20 | -50.8% | -81.2% | +1.0% | -51.8% |
| Rally | 2023-11-13 | 2023-12-14 | 23 | $16.20 | $23.18 | +43.1% | +4,967.8% | +7.0% | +36.1% |
| Drawdown | 2023-12-14 | 2024-02-05 | 35 | $23.18 | $15.83 | -31.7% | -93.6% | +4.7% | -36.4% |
| Rally | 2024-02-05 | 2024-02-27 | 16 | $15.83 | $23.35 | +47.5% | +45,471.6% | +2.7% | +44.8% |
| Drawdown | 2024-02-27 | 2024-04-25 | 42 | $23.35 | $14.96 | -35.9% | -93.1% | -0.6% | -35.3% |
| Rally | 2024-04-25 | 2024-11-11 | 139 | $14.96 | $31.58 | +111.1% | +287.5% | +18.9% | +92.2% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-11 | 2025-01-14 | 43 | $31.58 | $18.74 | -40.7% | -95.3% | -2.6% | -38.0% |
| Rally | 2025-01-14 | 2025-02-05 | 16 | $18.74 | $23.59 | +25.9% | +3,652.7% | +3.7% | +22.1% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-05 | 2025-04-08 | 44 | $23.59 | $11.47 | -51.4% | -98.4% | -17.8% | -33.6% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-04-30 | 16 | $11.47 | $16.65 | +45.2% | +35,312.0% | +11.8% | +33.4% |
| Drawdown | 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-28 | 20 | $16.65 | $13.04 | -21.7% | -95.4% | +5.7% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 2025-05-28 | 2025-12-04 | 133 | $13.04 | $20.11 | +54.2% | +127.2% | +16.4% | +37.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-12-04 | 2026-01-05 | 21 | $20.11 | $16.02 | -20.3% | -93.5% | +0.7% | -21.0% |
| Rally | 2026-01-05 | 2026-02-02 | 20 | $16.02 | $22.74 | +41.9% | +8,156.8% | +1.1% | +40.9% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-02 | 2026-03-30 | 40 | $22.74 | $18.08 | -20.5% | -76.4% | -9.1% | -11.4% |
| Rally | 2026-03-30 | 2026-07-09 | 70 | $18.08 | $27.21 | +50.5% | +335.6% | +18.9% | +31.6% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-07-09 | 2026-11-06 | 86 | $27.21 | $20.07 | -26.2% | -59.0% | -2.2% | -24.0% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.