Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2017-12-13 | 2017-12-18 | 4 | $254.00 | $492.00 | +93.7% | +1.0% | +92.7% |
| Drawdown | 2017-12-18 | 2017-12-19 | 2 | $492.00 | $370.00 | -24.8% | -0.3% | -24.5% |
| Rally | 2017-12-19 | 2017-12-27 | 7 | $370.00 | $650.00 | +75.7% | +0.0% | +75.6% |
| Drawdown | 2017-12-27 | 2018-01-23 | 20 | $650.00 | $462.00 | -28.9% | +5.8% | -34.8% |
| Rally | 2018-01-23 | 2018-01-24 | 2 | $462.00 | $575.00 | +24.5% | -0.1% | +24.5% |
| Drawdown | 2018-01-24 | 2018-03-20 | 40 | $575.00 | $204.00 | -64.5% | -4.3% | -60.3% |
| Rally | 2018-03-20 | 2018-03-21 | 2 | $204.00 | $254.00 | +24.5% | -0.2% | +24.7% |
| Drawdown | 2018-03-21 | 2018-05-24 | 47 | $254.00 | $148.00 | -41.7% | +0.6% | -42.3% |
| Rally | 2018-05-24 | 2018-05-30 | 5 | $148.00 | $204.00 | +37.8% | -0.1% | +38.0% |
| Drawdown | 2018-05-30 | 2018-09-05 | 71 | $204.00 | $85.00 | -58.3% | +6.0% | -64.4% |
| Rally | 2018-09-05 | 2018-09-19 | 11 | $85.00 | $105.00 | +23.5% | +0.7% | +22.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-09-19 | 2019-01-03 | 77 | $105.00 | $70.00 | -33.3% | -15.8% | -17.5% |
| Rally | 2019-01-03 | 2019-02-12 | 29 | $70.00 | $127.00 | +81.4% | +12.1% | +69.3% |
| Drawdown | 2019-02-12 | 2019-07-17 | 112 | $127.00 | $80.00 | -37.0% | +8.7% | -45.7% |
| Rally | 2019-07-17 | 2019-08-29 | 32 | $80.00 | $276.00 | +245.0% | -2.0% | +247.0% |
| Drawdown | 2019-08-29 | 2019-09-12 | 11 | $276.00 | $216.00 | -21.7% | +2.9% | -24.6% |
| Rally | 2019-09-12 | 2019-11-19 | 49 | $216.00 | $324.00 | +50.0% | +3.7% | +46.3% |
| Drawdown | 2019-11-19 | 2019-12-12 | 18 | $324.00 | $180.00 | -44.4% | +1.6% | -46.0% |
| Rally | 2019-12-12 | 2019-12-26 | 9 | $180.00 | $450.00 | +150.0% | +2.3% | +147.7% |
| Drawdown | 2019-12-26 | 2020-02-13 | 34 | $450.00 | $169.00 | -62.4% | +4.1% | -66.6% |
| Rally | 2020-02-13 | 2020-02-28 | 12 | $169.00 | $296.00 | +75.1% | -12.4% | +87.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-28 | 2020-03-24 | 18 | $296.00 | $196.00 | -33.8% | -17.2% | -16.6% |
| Rally | 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-31 | 5 | $196.00 | $260.00 | +32.7% | +5.6% | +27.0% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-31 | 2020-04-22 | 16 | $260.00 | $204.00 | -21.5% | +8.3% | -29.8% |
| Rally | 2020-04-22 | 2020-06-16 | 34 | $204.00 | $270.00 | +32.4% | +11.6% | +20.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-16 | 2020-08-04 | 35 | $270.00 | $202.00 | -25.2% | +5.8% | -31.0% |
| Rally | 2020-08-04 | 2020-08-11 | 6 | $202.00 | $252.00 | +24.8% | +0.8% | +23.9% |
| Drawdown | 2020-08-11 | 2021-02-22 | 128 | $252.00 | $140.00 | -44.4% | +16.3% | -60.7% |
| Rally | 2021-02-22 | 2021-07-26 | 103 | $140.00 | $240.00 | +71.4% | +14.1% | +57.3% |
| Drawdown | 2021-07-26 | 2021-12-13 | 98 | $240.00 | $166.00 | -30.8% | +5.6% | -36.4% |
| Rally | 2021-12-13 | 2021-12-15 | 3 | $166.00 | $210.00 | +26.5% | +0.9% | +25.6% |
| Drawdown | 2021-12-15 | 2022-04-11 | 80 | $210.00 | $162.00 | -22.9% | -6.3% | -16.5% |
| Rally | 2022-04-11 | 2022-05-10 | 15 | $162.00 | $264.00 | +63.0% | -9.3% | +72.3% |
| Drawdown | 2022-05-10 | 2022-08-09 | 63 | $264.00 | $194.00 | -26.5% | +3.0% | -29.5% |
| Rally | 2022-08-09 | 2022-08-23 | 10 | $194.00 | $246.00 | +26.8% | +0.2% | +26.7% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-23 | 2023-03-15 | 146 | $246.00 | $138.00 | -43.9% | -5.7% | -38.2% |
| Rally | 2023-03-15 | 2023-03-17 | 3 | $138.00 | $190.00 | +37.7% | +0.6% | +37.0% |
| Drawdown | 2023-03-17 | 2023-04-27 | 22 | $190.00 | $127.00 | -33.2% | +5.6% | -38.7% |
| Rally | 2023-04-27 | 2023-04-28 | 2 | $127.00 | $154.00 | +21.3% | +0.8% | +20.4% |
| Drawdown | 2023-04-28 | 2023-06-07 | 25 | $154.00 | $122.00 | -20.8% | +2.4% | -23.1% |
| Rally | 2023-06-07 | 2023-07-07 | 20 | $122.00 | $169.00 | +38.5% | +3.1% | +35.4% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-07 | 2023-10-24 | 75 | $169.00 | $108.00 | -36.1% | -3.4% | -32.7% |
| Rally | 2023-10-24 | 2023-10-25 | 2 | $108.00 | $143.00 | +32.4% | -1.4% | +33.8% |
| Drawdown | 2023-10-25 | 2024-05-17 | 130 | $143.00 | $96.00 | -32.9% | +26.7% | -59.5% |
| Rally | 2024-05-17 | 2024-12-27 | 153 | $96.00 | $276.00 | +187.5% | +12.6% | +174.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-12-27 | 2025-02-14 | 31 | $276.00 | $146.00 | -47.1% | +2.4% | -49.5% |
| Rally | 2025-02-14 | 2025-02-24 | 7 | $146.00 | $420.00 | +187.7% | -2.1% | +189.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-24 | 2025-04-08 | 25 | $420.00 | $188.00 | -55.2% | -16.7% | -38.5% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-02 | 17 | $188.00 | $276.00 | +46.8% | +14.1% | +32.7% |
| Drawdown | 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-25 | 33 | $276.00 | $210.00 | -23.9% | +7.1% | -31.0% |
| Rally | 2025-06-25 | 2025-10-08 | 75 | $210.00 | $950.00 | +352.4% | +10.9% | +341.5% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-14 | 5 | $950.00 | $750.00 | -21.1% | -1.6% | -19.4% |
| Rally | 2025-10-14 | 2025-10-20 | 5 | $750.00 | $900.00 | +20.0% | +1.4% | +18.6% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-29 | 8 | $900.00 | $296.00 | -67.1% | +2.3% | -69.4% |
| Rally | 2025-10-29 | 2025-10-31 | 3 | $296.00 | $462.00 | +56.1% | -0.7% | +56.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-31 | 2026-03-03 | 86 | $462.00 | $228.00 | -50.6% | -0.3% | -50.3% |
| Rally | 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-17 | 11 | $228.00 | $312.00 | +36.8% | -1.5% | +38.3% |
| Drawdown | 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-07 | 10 | $312.00 | $240.00 | -23.1% | -1.5% | -21.6% |
| Rally | 2026-04-07 | 2026-05-20 | 32 | $240.00 | $292.00 | +21.7% | +12.3% | +9.3% |
| Drawdown | 2026-05-20 | 2026-07-02 | 32 | $292.00 | $214.00 | -26.7% | +0.7% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 2026-07-02 | 2026-08-11 | 29 | $214.00 | $426.00 | +99.1% | +3.3% | +95.8% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-08-11 | 2026-11-06 | 64 | $426.00 | $142.00 | -66.7% | -4.8% | -61.8% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.