Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2014-03-18 | 2014-05-16 | 43 | $21,945.60 | $9,288.00 | -57.7% | +0.3% | -58.0% |
| Rally | 2014-05-16 | 2014-06-13 | 20 | $9,288.00 | $14,817.60 | +59.5% | +3.1% | +56.4% |
| Drawdown | 2014-06-13 | 2014-09-22 | 70 | $14,817.60 | $9,331.20 | -37.0% | +3.0% | -40.0% |
| Rally | 2014-09-22 | 2014-09-26 | 5 | $9,331.20 | $12,888.00 | +38.1% | -0.6% | +38.7% |
| Drawdown | 2014-09-26 | 2014-12-17 | 58 | $12,888.00 | $6,732.00 | -47.8% | +1.5% | -49.3% |
| Rally | 2014-12-17 | 2015-01-13 | 18 | $6,732.00 | $12,614.40 | +87.4% | +0.5% | +86.9% |
| Drawdown | 2015-01-13 | 2015-01-29 | 12 | $12,614.40 | $9,201.60 | -27.1% | -0.1% | -27.0% |
| Rally | 2015-01-29 | 2015-03-20 | 36 | $9,201.60 | $19,080.00 | +107.4% | +4.3% | +103.1% |
| Drawdown | 2015-03-20 | 2015-04-14 | 17 | $19,080.00 | $12,643.20 | -33.7% | -0.6% | -33.2% |
| Rally | 2015-04-14 | 2015-04-16 | 3 | $12,643.20 | $16,099.20 | +27.3% | +0.4% | +26.9% |
| Drawdown | 2015-04-16 | 2015-05-20 | 25 | $16,099.20 | $11,880.00 | -26.2% | +1.0% | -27.2% |
| Rally | 2015-05-20 | 2015-06-02 | 9 | $11,880.00 | $17,064.00 | +43.6% | -0.8% | +44.4% |
| Drawdown | 2015-06-02 | 2015-08-25 | 60 | $17,064.00 | $10,584.00 | -38.0% | -11.5% | -26.5% |
| Rally | 2015-08-25 | 2015-10-23 | 43 | $10,584.00 | $14,414.40 | +36.2% | +11.1% | +25.1% |
| Drawdown | 2015-10-23 | 2016-01-14 | 57 | $14,414.40 | $7,632.00 | -47.1% | -7.4% | -39.7% |
| Rally | 2016-01-14 | 2016-01-25 | 7 | $7,632.00 | $10,800.00 | +41.5% | -2.3% | +43.8% |
| Drawdown | 2016-01-25 | 2016-03-17 | 38 | $10,800.00 | $5,414.40 | -49.9% | +8.7% | -58.6% |
| Rally | 2016-03-17 | 2016-04-07 | 15 | $5,414.40 | $10,627.20 | +96.3% | +0.1% | +96.2% |
| Drawdown | 2016-04-07 | 2016-05-27 | 37 | $10,627.20 | $5,644.80 | -46.9% | +2.8% | -49.7% |
| Rally | 2016-05-27 | 2016-06-23 | 19 | $5,644.80 | $7,070.40 | +25.3% | +0.7% | +24.6% |
| Drawdown | 2016-06-23 | 2016-09-14 | 58 | $7,070.40 | $5,184.00 | -26.7% | +0.6% | -27.3% |
| Rally | 2016-09-14 | 2016-09-22 | 7 | $5,184.00 | $7,920.00 | +52.8% | +2.4% | +50.4% |
| Drawdown | 2016-09-22 | 2016-11-03 | 31 | $7,920.00 | $4,104.00 | -48.2% | -4.1% | -44.1% |
| Rally | 2016-11-03 | 2016-11-21 | 13 | $4,104.00 | $5,716.80 | +39.3% | +5.2% | +34.1% |
| Drawdown | 2016-11-21 | 2016-12-15 | 18 | $5,716.80 | $4,498.56 | -21.3% | +2.9% | -24.2% |
| Rally | 2016-12-15 | 2017-10-06 | 204 | $4,498.56 | $13,420.80 | +198.3% | +12.7% | +185.6% |
| Drawdown | 2017-10-06 | 2017-11-10 | 26 | $13,420.80 | $9,763.20 | -27.3% | +1.3% | -28.5% |
| Rally | 2017-11-10 | 2018-01-09 | 40 | $9,763.20 | $16,948.80 | +73.6% | +6.5% | +67.1% |
| Drawdown | 2018-01-09 | 2018-02-14 | 26 | $16,948.80 | $7,848.00 | -53.7% | -1.9% | -51.8% |
| Rally | 2018-02-14 | 2018-02-15 | 2 | $7,848.00 | $10,022.40 | +27.7% | +1.2% | +26.5% |
| Drawdown | 2018-02-15 | 2018-02-28 | 9 | $10,022.40 | $7,372.80 | -26.4% | -0.6% | -25.8% |
| Rally | 2018-02-28 | 2018-03-16 | 13 | $7,372.80 | $9,547.20 | +29.5% | +1.4% | +28.1% |
| Drawdown | 2018-03-16 | 2018-04-02 | 11 | $9,547.20 | $7,257.60 | -24.0% | -6.2% | -17.8% |
| Rally | 2018-04-02 | 2018-06-13 | 52 | $7,257.60 | $25,862.40 | +256.3% | +7.5% | +248.8% |
| Drawdown | 2018-06-13 | 2018-07-11 | 20 | $25,862.40 | $15,192.00 | -41.3% | -0.1% | -41.2% |
| Rally | 2018-07-11 | 2018-07-23 | 9 | $15,192.00 | $22,003.20 | +44.8% | +1.2% | +43.6% |
| Drawdown | 2018-07-23 | 2018-08-14 | 17 | $22,003.20 | $16,070.40 | -27.0% | +1.2% | -28.1% |
| Rally | 2018-08-14 | 2018-10-02 | 35 | $16,070.40 | $20,836.80 | +29.7% | +2.9% | +26.7% |
| Drawdown | 2018-10-02 | 2018-10-29 | 20 | $20,836.80 | $12,528.00 | -39.9% | -9.7% | -30.2% |
| Rally | 2018-10-29 | 2018-11-05 | 6 | $12,528.00 | $16,387.20 | +30.8% | +3.7% | +27.1% |
| Drawdown | 2018-11-05 | 2018-12-24 | 34 | $16,387.20 | $9,489.60 | -42.1% | -14.1% | -28.0% |
| Rally | 2018-12-24 | 2019-03-21 | 60 | $9,489.60 | $13,060.80 | +37.6% | +21.4% | +16.2% |
| Drawdown | 2019-03-21 | 2019-06-11 | 57 | $13,060.80 | $8,179.20 | -37.4% | +1.1% | -38.5% |
| Rally | 2019-06-11 | 2019-06-28 | 14 | $8,179.20 | $10,584.00 | +29.4% | +1.9% | +27.5% |
| Drawdown | 2019-06-28 | 2019-08-07 | 28 | $10,584.00 | $6,912.00 | -34.7% | -2.0% | -32.7% |
| Rally | 2019-08-07 | 2019-08-19 | 9 | $6,912.00 | $8,553.60 | +23.7% | +1.4% | +22.4% |
| Drawdown | 2019-08-19 | 2019-10-10 | 38 | $8,553.60 | $5,198.40 | -39.2% | +0.5% | -39.7% |
| Rally | 2019-10-10 | 2020-01-07 | 61 | $5,198.40 | $9,849.60 | +89.5% | +10.2% | +79.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-07 | 2020-02-03 | 19 | $9,849.60 | $7,416.00 | -24.7% | +0.4% | -25.1% |
| Rally | 2020-02-03 | 2020-02-20 | 13 | $7,416.00 | $9,144.00 | +23.3% | +3.8% | +19.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-20 | 2020-04-02 | 31 | $9,144.00 | $4,636.80 | -49.3% | -25.1% | -24.2% |
| Rally | 2020-04-02 | 2020-05-20 | 34 | $4,636.80 | $8,755.20 | +88.8% | +17.6% | +71.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-05-20 | 2020-07-13 | 37 | $8,755.20 | $6,451.20 | -26.3% | +6.2% | -32.5% |
| Rally | 2020-07-13 | 2020-07-15 | 3 | $6,451.20 | $8,193.60 | +27.0% | +2.3% | +24.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-07-15 | 2020-11-09 | 83 | $8,193.60 | $4,406.40 | -46.2% | +10.0% | -56.3% |
| Rally | 2020-11-09 | 2020-11-27 | 14 | $4,406.40 | $6,004.80 | +36.3% | +2.5% | +33.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-11-27 | 2020-12-31 | 24 | $6,004.80 | $4,478.40 | -25.4% | +3.2% | -28.7% |
| Rally | 2020-12-31 | 2021-02-11 | 29 | $4,478.40 | $7,776.00 | +73.6% | +4.3% | +69.4% |
| Drawdown | 2021-02-11 | 2021-05-13 | 64 | $7,776.00 | $3,225.60 | -58.5% | +5.0% | -63.5% |
| Rally | 2021-05-13 | 2021-06-07 | 17 | $3,225.60 | $5,616.00 | +74.1% | +2.8% | +71.3% |
| Drawdown | 2021-06-07 | 2021-07-27 | 36 | $5,616.00 | $3,470.40 | -38.2% | +4.1% | -42.3% |
| Rally | 2021-07-27 | 2021-08-30 | 25 | $3,470.40 | $4,795.20 | +38.2% | +2.9% | +35.3% |
| Drawdown | 2021-08-30 | 2021-10-28 | 43 | $4,795.20 | $3,427.20 | -28.5% | +1.5% | -30.0% |
| Rally | 2021-10-28 | 2021-11-09 | 9 | $3,427.20 | $4,363.20 | +27.3% | +1.9% | +25.4% |
| Drawdown | 2021-11-09 | 2022-01-27 | 55 | $4,363.20 | $2,001.60 | -54.1% | -7.7% | -46.5% |
| Rally | 2022-01-27 | 2022-02-10 | 11 | $2,001.60 | $2,476.80 | +23.7% | +4.1% | +19.6% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-10 | 2022-03-15 | 23 | $2,476.80 | $1,771.20 | -28.5% | -5.4% | -23.1% |
| Rally | 2022-03-15 | 2022-04-05 | 16 | $1,771.20 | $2,548.80 | +43.9% | +6.2% | +37.7% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-05 | 2022-05-19 | 32 | $2,548.80 | $720.00 | -71.8% | -13.8% | -58.0% |
| Rally | 2022-05-19 | 2022-05-23 | 3 | $720.00 | $936.00 | +30.0% | +1.9% | +28.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-05-23 | 2022-06-17 | 19 | $936.00 | $635.04 | -32.2% | -7.5% | -24.6% |
| Rally | 2022-06-17 | 2022-06-30 | 9 | $635.04 | $936.00 | +47.4% | +3.0% | +44.4% |
| Drawdown | 2022-06-30 | 2022-09-27 | 62 | $936.00 | $446.40 | -52.3% | -3.6% | -48.7% |
| Rally | 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-07 | 9 | $446.40 | $676.80 | +51.6% | -0.2% | +51.8% |
| Drawdown | 2022-10-07 | 2022-12-16 | 50 | $676.80 | $417.60 | -38.3% | +5.8% | -44.1% |
| Rally | 2022-12-16 | 2022-12-22 | 5 | $417.60 | $849.60 | +103.4% | -0.8% | +104.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-12-22 | 2022-12-29 | 5 | $849.60 | $662.40 | -22.0% | +0.7% | -22.7% |
| Rally | 2022-12-29 | 2023-01-10 | 8 | $662.40 | $1,296.00 | +95.7% | +1.8% | +93.8% |
| Drawdown | 2023-01-10 | 2023-01-30 | 14 | $1,296.00 | $820.80 | -36.7% | +2.5% | -39.2% |
| Rally | 2023-01-30 | 2023-02-02 | 4 | $820.80 | $1,072.80 | +30.7% | +4.0% | +26.7% |
| Drawdown | 2023-02-02 | 2023-05-01 | 61 | $1,072.80 | $417.60 | -61.1% | -0.3% | -60.8% |
| Rally | 2023-05-01 | 2023-05-05 | 5 | $417.60 | $587.52 | +40.7% | -0.8% | +41.4% |
| Drawdown | 2023-05-05 | 2023-05-15 | 7 | $587.52 | $399.36 | -32.0% | +0.0% | -32.0% |
| Rally | 2023-05-15 | 2023-05-22 | 6 | $399.36 | $499.97 | +25.2% | +1.4% | +23.8% |
| Drawdown | 2023-05-22 | 2023-11-13 | 122 | $499.97 | $33.89 | -93.2% | +5.2% | -98.4% |
| Rally | 2023-11-13 | 2023-11-20 | 6 | $33.89 | $41.66 | +22.9% | +3.1% | +19.9% |
| Drawdown | 2023-11-20 | 2023-11-22 | 3 | $41.66 | $28.22 | -32.3% | +0.2% | -32.5% |
| Rally | 2023-11-22 | 2024-01-10 | 33 | $28.22 | $43.87 | +55.4% | +5.0% | +50.5% |
| Drawdown | 2024-01-10 | 2024-01-19 | 7 | $43.87 | $32.35 | -26.3% | +1.2% | -27.4% |
| Rally | 2024-01-19 | 2024-03-01 | 30 | $32.35 | $39.36 | +21.7% | +6.1% | +15.5% |
| Drawdown | 2024-03-01 | 2024-03-20 | 14 | $39.36 | $29.28 | -25.6% | +1.7% | -27.3% |
| Rally | 2024-03-20 | 2024-04-11 | 16 | $29.28 | $40.32 | +37.7% | -0.5% | +38.2% |
| Drawdown | 2024-04-11 | 2024-06-27 | 54 | $40.32 | $25.73 | -36.2% | +5.5% | -41.6% |
| Rally | 2024-06-27 | 2024-08-21 | 39 | $25.73 | $41.28 | +60.4% | +2.5% | +57.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-08-21 | 2024-09-04 | 10 | $41.28 | $22.48 | -45.5% | -1.8% | -43.7% |
| Rally | 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-17 | 10 | $22.48 | $120.80 | +437.4% | +2.1% | +435.3% |
| Drawdown | 2024-09-17 | 2024-09-18 | 2 | $120.80 | $55.20 | -54.3% | -0.3% | -54.0% |
| Rally | 2024-09-18 | 2024-09-23 | 4 | $55.20 | $74.80 | +35.5% | +1.8% | +33.7% |
| Drawdown | 2024-09-23 | 2024-10-17 | 19 | $74.80 | $27.68 | -63.0% | +2.1% | -65.1% |
| Rally | 2024-10-17 | 2024-10-22 | 4 | $27.68 | $38.48 | +39.0% | +0.2% | +38.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-22 | 2024-12-05 | 32 | $38.48 | $20.48 | -46.8% | +3.8% | -50.6% |
| Rally | 2024-12-05 | 2025-01-03 | 20 | $20.48 | $27.44 | +34.0% | -2.2% | +36.2% |
| Drawdown | 2025-01-03 | 2025-03-13 | 47 | $27.44 | $13.44 | -51.0% | -7.1% | -43.9% |
| Rally | 2025-03-13 | 2025-03-18 | 4 | $13.44 | $20.08 | +49.4% | +1.7% | +47.7% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-18 | 2025-04-07 | 15 | $20.08 | $9.92 | -50.6% | -9.8% | -40.8% |
| Rally | 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-28 | 15 | $9.92 | $13.36 | +34.7% | +9.2% | +25.5% |
| Drawdown | 2025-04-28 | 2025-05-16 | 15 | $13.36 | $9.52 | -28.7% | +7.8% | -36.5% |
| Rally | 2025-05-16 | 2025-07-17 | 42 | $9.52 | $18.64 | +95.8% | +5.7% | +90.1% |
| Drawdown | 2025-07-17 | 2025-09-02 | 33 | $18.64 | $10.16 | -45.5% | +1.9% | -47.4% |
| Rally | 2025-09-02 | 2025-10-06 | 25 | $10.16 | $12.88 | +26.8% | +5.1% | +21.7% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-06 | 2025-11-20 | 34 | $12.88 | $6.52 | -49.4% | -3.0% | -46.4% |
| Rally | 2025-11-20 | 2025-12-08 | 12 | $6.52 | $9.68 | +48.5% | +4.7% | +43.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-12-08 | 2026-02-20 | 51 | $9.68 | $4.33 | -55.3% | +0.9% | -56.2% |
| Rally | 2026-02-20 | 2026-02-25 | 4 | $4.33 | $5.30 | +22.4% | +0.5% | +21.8% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-25 | 2026-03-30 | 24 | $5.30 | $3.80 | -28.2% | -8.7% | -19.6% |
| Rally | 2026-03-30 | 2026-04-09 | 8 | $3.80 | $6.28 | +65.3% | +7.6% | +57.7% |
| Drawdown | 2026-04-09 | 2026-04-29 | 15 | $6.28 | $4.48 | -28.7% | +4.6% | -33.2% |
| Rally | 2026-04-29 | 2026-05-29 | 22 | $4.48 | $6.03 | +34.6% | +6.2% | +28.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-08 | 7 | $6.03 | $3.75 | -37.8% | -2.3% | -35.5% |
| Rally | 2026-06-08 | 2026-07-01 | 17 | $3.75 | $5.18 | +38.2% | +1.0% | +37.1% |
| Drawdown | 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-22 | 15 | $5.18 | $4.04 | -22.1% | +0.2% | -22.3% |
| Rally | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-31 | 8 | $4.04 | $4.97 | +23.0% | -0.1% | +23.1% |
| Drawdown | 2026-07-31 | 2026-09-08 | 27 | $4.97 | $3.83 | -23.0% | +2.5% | -25.5% |
| Rally | 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-09 | 2 | $3.83 | $4.63 | +21.0% | -0.5% | +21.5% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-09-09 | 2026-11-06 | 43 | $4.63 | $2.74 | -40.8% | -3.4% | -37.4% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.