Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2018-10-26 | 2018-12-03 | 26 | $60.52 | $82.00 | +35.5% | +5.0% | +30.5% |
| Drawdown | 2018-12-03 | 2018-12-21 | 14 | $82.00 | $62.53 | -23.7% | -13.4% | -10.3% |
| Rally | 2018-12-21 | 2019-02-27 | 45 | $62.53 | $99.07 | +58.4% | +15.5% | +42.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-02-27 | 2019-06-26 | 84 | $99.07 | $72.63 | -26.7% | +4.3% | -31.0% |
| Rally | 2019-06-26 | 2019-07-26 | 22 | $72.63 | $102.59 | +41.3% | +3.8% | +37.4% |
| Drawdown | 2019-07-26 | 2019-08-27 | 23 | $102.59 | $79.59 | -22.4% | -5.2% | -17.2% |
| Rally | 2019-08-27 | 2019-09-11 | 11 | $79.59 | $96.30 | +21.0% | +4.6% | +16.4% |
| Drawdown | 2019-09-11 | 2019-12-12 | 66 | $96.30 | $61.01 | -36.6% | +5.6% | -42.2% |
| Rally | 2019-12-12 | 2020-02-28 | 53 | $61.01 | $73.86 | +21.1% | -6.8% | +27.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-28 | 2020-03-18 | 14 | $73.86 | $44.12 | -40.3% | -18.8% | -21.4% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2020-10-13 | 146 | $44.12 | $125.66 | +184.8% | +46.4% | +138.4% |
| Drawdown | 2020-10-13 | 2020-11-02 | 15 | $125.66 | $99.24 | -21.0% | -5.7% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 2020-11-02 | 2021-01-21 | 55 | $99.24 | $171.29 | +72.6% | +16.4% | +56.2% |
| Drawdown | 2021-01-21 | 2021-03-29 | 47 | $171.29 | $105.98 | -38.1% | +3.1% | -41.2% |
| Rally | 2021-03-29 | 2021-04-15 | 13 | $105.98 | $134.46 | +26.9% | +5.0% | +21.9% |
| Drawdown | 2021-04-15 | 2021-05-13 | 21 | $134.46 | $103.00 | -23.4% | -1.4% | -22.0% |
| Rally | 2021-05-13 | 2021-11-16 | 131 | $103.00 | $186.78 | +81.3% | +14.3% | +67.0% |
| Drawdown | 2021-11-16 | 2022-03-14 | 81 | $186.78 | $67.07 | -64.1% | -11.2% | -52.9% |
| Rally | 2022-03-14 | 2022-04-04 | 16 | $67.07 | $96.03 | +43.2% | +9.8% | +33.4% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-04 | 2022-05-11 | 27 | $96.03 | $53.01 | -44.8% | -14.1% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 2022-05-11 | 2022-06-08 | 20 | $53.01 | $78.30 | +47.7% | +4.6% | +43.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-06-08 | 2022-06-16 | 7 | $78.30 | $61.62 | -21.3% | -10.9% | -10.4% |
| Rally | 2022-06-16 | 2022-09-12 | 60 | $61.62 | $90.81 | +47.4% | +12.1% | +35.3% |
| Drawdown | 2022-09-12 | 2022-11-04 | 40 | $90.81 | $52.85 | -41.8% | -8.3% | -33.5% |
| Rally | 2022-11-04 | 2022-11-15 | 8 | $52.85 | $67.08 | +26.9% | +5.9% | +21.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-11-15 | 2023-01-06 | 36 | $67.08 | $47.94 | -28.5% | -2.4% | -26.1% |
| Rally | 2023-01-06 | 2023-06-05 | 103 | $47.94 | $72.83 | +51.9% | +9.7% | +42.2% |
| Drawdown | 2023-06-05 | 2023-08-28 | 59 | $72.83 | $57.91 | -20.5% | +3.7% | -24.2% |
| Rally | 2023-08-28 | 2024-02-29 | 128 | $57.91 | $133.81 | +131.1% | +15.0% | +116.1% |
| Drawdown | 2024-02-29 | 2024-05-30 | 64 | $133.81 | $93.18 | -30.4% | +2.7% | -33.1% |
| Rally | 2024-05-30 | 2024-07-12 | 30 | $93.18 | $122.27 | +31.2% | +7.3% | +24.0% |
| Drawdown | 2024-07-12 | 2024-09-06 | 40 | $122.27 | $70.14 | -42.6% | -3.7% | -39.0% |
| Rally | 2024-09-06 | 2025-02-12 | 109 | $70.14 | $117.76 | +67.9% | +11.9% | +56.0% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-12 | 2025-04-08 | 39 | $117.76 | $73.36 | -37.7% | -17.7% | -20.0% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-20 | 30 | $73.36 | $94.17 | +28.4% | +19.2% | +9.1% |
| Drawdown | 2025-05-20 | 2025-08-11 | 57 | $94.17 | $72.54 | -23.0% | +7.3% | -30.3% |
| Rally | 2025-08-11 | 2025-11-11 | 66 | $72.54 | $94.47 | +30.2% | +7.4% | +22.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-11-11 | 2026-04-10 | 103 | $94.47 | $43.30 | -54.2% | -0.4% | -53.7% |
| Rally | 2026-04-10 | 2026-06-01 | 36 | $43.30 | $68.06 | +57.2% | +11.5% | +45.7% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-01 | 2026-06-25 | 18 | $68.06 | $53.60 | -21.2% | -3.2% | -18.1% |
| Rally | 2026-06-25 | 2026-10-28 | 88 | $53.60 | $106.58 | +98.8% | +5.3% | +93.6% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-10-28 | 2026-11-05 | 7 | $106.58 | $84.20 | -21.0% | -5.0% | -16.0% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.