Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 1998-06-25 | 1998-07-08 | 9 | $780,444.83 | $0.45 | -100.0% | -100.0% | +3.3% | -103.3% |
| Rally | 1998-07-08 | 1998-08-13 | 27 | $0.45 | $0.68 | +52.2% | +4,929.3% | -7.8% | +60.0% |
| Drawdown | 1998-08-13 | 1998-10-29 | 56 | $0.68 | $0.49 | -28.2% | -77.5% | +1.0% | -29.2% |
| Rally | 1998-10-29 | 1999-08-06 | 202 | $0.49 | $1.76 | +258.2% | +391.3% | +19.7% | +238.5% |
| Drawdown | 1999-08-06 | 1999-10-07 | 45 | $1.76 | $1.08 | -38.3% | -93.3% | +1.3% | -39.7% |
| Rally | 1999-10-07 | 1999-12-15 | 50 | $1.08 | $1.70 | +57.4% | +884.7% | +7.3% | +50.2% |
| Drawdown | 1999-12-15 | 2000-01-04 | 15 | $1.70 | $1.27 | -25.3% | -99.3% | -1.0% | -24.3% |
| Rally | 2000-01-04 | 2000-08-29 | 171 | $1.27 | $3.20 | +151.5% | +289.3% | +7.9% | +143.6% |
| Drawdown | 2000-08-29 | 2000-11-30 | 68 | $3.20 | $2.22 | -30.7% | -74.3% | -12.9% | -17.8% |
| Rally | 2000-11-30 | 2001-03-07 | 70 | $2.22 | $3.44 | +54.9% | +383.8% | -4.0% | +59.0% |
| Drawdown | 2001-03-07 | 2001-05-07 | 44 | $3.44 | $2.10 | -39.0% | -94.1% | +0.1% | -39.1% |
| Rally | 2001-05-07 | 2001-05-24 | 14 | $2.10 | $2.72 | +29.8% | +10,858.1% | +2.3% | +27.5% |
| Drawdown | 2001-05-24 | 2001-07-25 | 45 | $2.72 | $1.61 | -40.9% | -94.7% | -7.9% | -32.9% |
| Rally | 2001-07-25 | 2001-09-06 | 32 | $1.61 | $2.17 | +34.9% | +953.4% | -7.1% | +41.9% |
| Drawdown | 2001-09-06 | 2001-10-10 | 25 | $2.17 | $1.64 | -24.4% | -94.0% | -2.3% | -22.1% |
| Rally | 2001-10-10 | 2002-06-19 | 181 | $1.64 | $3.61 | +119.9% | +199.5% | -5.6% | +125.5% |
| Drawdown | 2002-06-19 | 2002-07-25 | 27 | $3.61 | $2.64 | -26.8% | -94.5% | -17.8% | -9.0% |
| Rally | 2002-07-25 | 2004-03-05 | 422 | $2.64 | $4.38 | +65.5% | +35.1% | +37.9% | +27.6% |
| Drawdown | 2004-03-05 | 2004-09-08 | 134 | $4.38 | $3.32 | -24.2% | -40.6% | -3.5% | -20.7% |
| Rally | 2004-09-08 | 2006-03-15 | 386 | $3.32 | $11.86 | +257.7% | +129.8% | +16.7% | +241.0% |
| Drawdown | 2006-03-15 | 2006-06-19 | 67 | $11.86 | $8.45 | -28.8% | -72.1% | -4.8% | -23.9% |
| Rally | 2006-06-19 | 2007-10-26 | 342 | $8.45 | $16.93 | +100.3% | +66.8% | +23.8% | +76.5% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-26 | 2008-01-21 | 59 | $16.93 | $12.45 | -26.5% | -73.1% | -13.7% | -12.8% |
| Rally | 2008-01-21 | 2008-02-13 | 18 | $12.45 | $15.80 | +27.0% | +2,726.8% | +3.2% | +23.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-02-13 | 2008-07-11 | 104 | $15.80 | $8.83 | -44.1% | -75.6% | -9.3% | -34.8% |
| Rally | 2008-07-11 | 2008-08-12 | 22 | $8.83 | $11.51 | +30.4% | +1,986.4% | +4.0% | +26.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-12 | 2008-10-07 | 40 | $11.51 | $8.87 | -23.0% | -80.7% | -22.7% | -0.2% |
| Rally | 2008-10-07 | 2008-11-04 | 20 | $8.87 | $11.19 | +26.2% | +1,774.2% | +1.0% | +25.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-04 | 2008-12-12 | 29 | $11.19 | $4.25 | -62.0% | -100.0% | -12.5% | -49.5% |
| Rally | 2008-12-12 | 2009-01-06 | 15 | $4.25 | $5.97 | +40.4% | +29,691.3% | +6.2% | +34.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-06 | 2009-03-05 | 42 | $5.97 | $2.90 | -51.4% | -98.7% | -27.0% | -24.4% |
| Rally | 2009-03-05 | 2009-04-22 | 34 | $2.90 | $6.22 | +114.4% | +28,384.7% | +23.6% | +90.8% |
| Drawdown | 2009-04-22 | 2009-05-13 | 16 | $6.22 | $4.92 | -20.9% | -97.5% | +4.8% | -25.7% |
| Rally | 2009-05-13 | 2009-08-26 | 73 | $4.92 | $9.21 | +87.2% | +770.2% | +16.3% | +70.8% |
| Drawdown | 2009-08-26 | 2009-10-28 | 44 | $9.21 | $7.03 | -23.7% | -78.7% | +1.4% | -25.1% |
| Rally | 2009-10-28 | 2011-05-31 | 399 | $7.03 | $14.15 | +101.4% | +55.6% | +29.0% | +72.3% |
| Drawdown | 2011-05-31 | 2011-12-01 | 129 | $14.15 | $6.50 | -54.1% | -78.1% | -7.5% | -46.6% |
| Rally | 2011-12-01 | 2015-07-30 | 919 | $6.50 | $37.11 | +470.8% | +61.2% | +69.4% | +401.4% |
| Drawdown | 2015-07-30 | 2016-02-09 | 133 | $37.11 | $25.75 | -30.6% | -50.0% | -12.2% | -18.5% |
| Rally | 2016-02-09 | 2016-07-22 | 115 | $25.75 | $33.83 | +31.4% | +81.9% | +17.4% | +14.0% |
| Drawdown | 2016-07-22 | 2017-02-03 | 135 | $33.83 | $25.72 | -24.0% | -40.1% | +5.6% | -29.6% |
| Rally | 2017-02-03 | 2018-01-23 | 243 | $25.72 | $35.16 | +36.7% | +38.3% | +23.6% | +13.1% |
| Drawdown | 2018-01-23 | 2018-07-30 | 131 | $35.16 | $27.88 | -20.7% | -36.0% | -1.3% | -19.4% |
| Rally | 2018-07-30 | 2019-07-16 | 242 | $27.88 | $46.53 | +66.9% | +70.4% | +7.2% | +59.7% |
| Drawdown | 2019-07-16 | 2020-03-20 | 172 | $46.53 | $13.19 | -71.7% | -84.2% | -23.3% | -48.4% |
| Rally | 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-09 | 15 | $13.19 | $20.40 | +54.7% | +152,874.6% | +21.0% | +33.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-09 | 2020-05-15 | 26 | $20.40 | $15.83 | -22.4% | -91.4% | +2.6% | -25.1% |
| Rally | 2020-05-15 | 2022-01-04 | 410 | $15.83 | $49.34 | +211.7% | +101.1% | +67.4% | +144.3% |
| Drawdown | 2022-01-04 | 2022-07-13 | 133 | $49.34 | $31.63 | -35.9% | -56.9% | -20.7% | -15.2% |
| Rally | 2022-07-13 | 2025-02-26 | 659 | $31.63 | $76.06 | +140.5% | +39.9% | +56.7% | +83.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-26 | 2025-04-08 | 30 | $76.06 | $52.30 | -31.2% | -95.7% | -16.3% | -14.9% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2026-02-18 | 217 | $52.30 | $97.70 | +86.8% | +106.6% | +38.1% | +48.7% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-02-18 | 2026-11-06 | 182 | $97.70 | $49.00 | -49.8% | -61.5% | +7.2% | -57.0% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.